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Macroeconomic Instability in Post-communist Countries
This book examines the causes of very high inflation--and of the great drop in statistically measured output--in the post-Communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe and in the former Soviet Union. It focuses on several key topics: the fundamental nature of the shift from supply-constrained economies (in which there is no unemployment) to ones that are constrained by demand; the reconstruction of monetary and credit systems; and the central role of macroeconomic stabilization and generalized liberalization in creating the basis for private sector growth. Many of the chapters herein have grown out of policy debates in which the author participated.
The Eastern Enlargement of the EU
The Eastern Enlargement of the EU identifies the major fiscal challenges facing Central European countries on the road to European Union accession. The Introduction and three other chapters are on broad macro-economic issues, and four `sectoral' chapters follow these on such questions as the fiscal impact of pensions, health reform, taxation and agricultural policies. A comprehensive analysis of tax systems and of the major elements of public social expenditures (pensions and health care systems) is presented. This analysis helps to identify the key factors determining the present size of governments and the need for, and prospects of, fiscal adjustment. In addition, a comparison of fiscal p...
Systemic Requirements for Monetary Stability in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union
The primary function of banks during economic transformation is seen to be provision of an efficient payments mechanism. The lack of banking skills, particularly in credit allocation, is seen as the major problem in stable monetary systems. This is a problem which can be expected to last many years. The solution is to limit banks to very safe assets (initially central bank liabilities). Combining such safe banks with a monetary rule would provide stable monetary systems during transition.
The Eastern Enlargement of the Eurozone
The Eastern Enlargement of the EU will not be complete until the new member states join the EMU. Economic and political economy arguments point to fast EMU accession of new member states. Failure to do so will create a two speed Europe, a fundamental change in the economic and political architecture of the EU, adding to the strains already evident between core and peripheral countries. Current high level of trade and business cycle integration of new member states with the Eurozone, decreases the probability of asymmetric shocks. Lower transaction costs, elimination of exchange rate risk and the danger of currency crises, further trade and investment creation, lower interest rates and large fiscal gains, should outweigh the loss of the exchange rate as adjustment tool. The Eastern Enlargement of the Eurozone provides comprehensive economic analysis of theoretical, empirical and political issues that will determine whether EMU enlargement is a success, which has implications for all common currency systems.
Interenterprise Arrears in Post-Communist Economies
The reasons for the growth of interenterprise debt are analyzed. It is suggested that it results mainly from the appearance of normal trade credit in a liberalized economy, and when a monetary squeeze is part of a stabilization attempt that is not credible. In the latter case, the result can be a sharp fall in output. Non-market and market solutions to this problem are analyzed, and the advantages of the latter over the former are stressed.
Banking Reform in Central Europe and the Former Soviet Union
This study analyzes the main requirements placed on Central and Eastern Europe's financial systems during their transition to a market economy. It assesses the financial reforms already carried out in the countries of Central Europe, their adaptations of Western institutional models, and the lessons to be drawn from their experiences for the second wave reformers in the former Soviet Union and the Balkans.
