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Modeling with Limited Data
This paper proposes a framework to analyze long-term potential growth that combines a simple quantitative model with an investigative approach of ‘growth diagnostics’. The framework is used to forecast potential growth for Cambodia, and to conduct simulations about the main drivers of growth in that country. The main result is that Cambodia compares less favorably against other lower-income Asian economies in terms of its investment rate, which in turn is constrained by the poor quality of its infrastructure. Bridging this gap can lift Cambodia’s potential growth by more than one percentage point.
Evaluating the Net Benefits of Macroprudential Policy
The paper proposes a simple, new, analytical framework for assessing the cost and benefits of macroprudential policies. It proposes a measure of net benefits in terms of parameters that can be estimated: the probability of crisis, the loss in output given crisis, policy effectiveness in bringing down both the probability and damage during crisis, and the output-cost of a policy decision. It discusses three types of policy leakages and identifies instruments that could best minimize the leakages. Some rules of thumb for policymakers are provided.
Modeling with Macro-Financial Linkages
This paper develops a stylized, small, open economy macro model that incorporates an explicit and non-trivial role for financial intermediation. It illustrates how such a model could be used for policy analysis in an emerging market economy where policymakers are concerned about risks associated with rapid credit growth, financial dollarization, and foreign borrowing, while lacking traditional tools to effect monetary policy transmission, and hence could resort to more direct instruments, such as foreign exchange market intervention and regulatory and administrative measures. Calibrating the model to a stylized emerging European economy, the paper simulates real and financial sector implications of various external and policy-related shocks that could be used as input for monetary policy making.
Macroeconomic Research in Low-income Countries
Despite strong economic growth since 2000, many low-income countries (LICs) still face numerous macroeconomic challenges, even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the deceleration in real GDP growth during the 2008 global financial crisis, LICs on average saw 4.5 percent of real GDP growth during 2000 to 2014, making progress in economic convergence toward higher-income countries. However, the commodity price collapse in 2014–15 hit many commodity-exporting LICs and highlighted their vulnerabilities due to the limited extent of economic diversification. Furthermore, LICs are currently facing a crisis like no other—COVID-19, which requires careful policymaking to save lives and livelihoods in LICs, informed by policy debate and thoughtful research tailored to the COVID-19 situation. There are also other challenges beyond COVID-19, such as climate change, high levels of public debt burdens, and persistent structural issues.
Making Money
What is money? Where does it come from? Who makes it? And how can we understand the current state of our economy as a crisis of money itself? In Making Money, Ole Bjerg turns these questions into a matter of philosophical rather than economic analysis. Applying the thinking of Slavoj Zizek and other scholars to mainstream economic literature, Bjerg provides a radical new way of looking at the mysterious stuff we use to buy things. It is a theory unfolded in reflections on the nature of monetary phenomena such as financial markets, banks, debt, credit, derivatives, gold, risk, value, price, interests, and arbitrage. The analysis of money is put into an historical context, suggesting that the current financial turbulence and debt crisis are evidence that we live in the age of post-credit capitalism. By bridging the fields of economics and contemporary philosophy, Bjerg's work engages in a compelling form of intellectual arbitrage.
Emerging Europe and the Great Recession
This volume adds to the existing literature on the Great Recession and the variety of current troubles in the European Union by providing the views of someone who has been in the trenches at national and international levels and who has extensive policy and academic experience. Furthermore, it deals, inter alia, with issues of huge importance such as “North-South” and “East-West” cleavages in the EU, problems in the Eurozone, the diminishing resilience of systems, and the rise of a “New Protectionism”. The book voices concerns and dilemmas from the perspective of new EU Member States in a period of “radical uncertainty” and painful policy trade-offs. Its underlying paradigm is that markets are essential for entrepreneurship and economic dynamism, but that market failures and global finance can cause a lot of misery in society unless they are reined in. This volume will be of interest to all those looking for insights into the challenges that the EU, the Eurozone, and emerging European economies have faced during the past decade and on what may lie ahead. Its target audience is policy-making and business circles, academia, research outfits, and NGOs.
Iceland
This selected issues paper on Iceland reports that since mid-2009, Iceland has undergone a heavily frontloaded fiscal consolidation program to bring government finances to a sustainable level. To maintain the adjustment gains achieved during the last 21⁄2 years, the authorities have started drafting a new organic budget law, which would codify recent reforms in the budget framework and introduce principles for fiscal policymaking. Iceland’s economy is exposed to adverse shocks. The external outlook continues to pose challenges, as key trading partners face weak growth prospects.
A Model-Based Analysis of Spillovers
This paper studies economic and financial spillovers from the euro area to Poland in a two-country semi-structural model. The model incorporates various channels of macrofinancial linkages and cross-border spillovers. We parameterize the model through an extensive calibration process, and provide a wide range of model properties and evaluation exercises. Simulation results suggest a prominent role of foreign demand shocks (euro area and global) in driving Poland’s output, inflation and interest rate dynamics, particularly in recent years. Our model also has the capability for medium-term conditional forecasting and policy analysis.
The Next Money Crashand How to Avoid It
"Offering provocative and compelling solutions for remedying the country's banking system, [this] presents a transcription of the conference, "Fixing the Banking System for Good' organized by the Global Interdependence Center. This conference offered a variety of speakers presenting differing views of key issues, all with a common goal - to moderate the financial disruptions the current system allows; to provide a sound, stable currency; to compel, through market forces, more transparency in the activities of financial institutions; and to take taxpayers off the hook. In all of the plans, more capital and more transparency are key elements, along with the end to government guarantees, which provide advantages to large, opaque financial institutions. [It] compiles the latest thinking of many leading minds in finance and economics and provides a clear prescription for fixing the banking system as well as the global monetary system"--Publisher's description.
Mexico
This Selected Issues paper analyzes transmission of monetary policy rates to lending and deposit rates in Mexico. The results show that transmission of the policy rate to market rates is statistically significant in all cases, except for mortgage rates. For sight deposits, pass-through is low, with a 1 percentage point increase in the policy rate leading to a 0.2 percentage point rise in the deposit rate. For term deposits the pass-through is stronger, but remains below unity at 0.7. The pass-through to both lending and deposit rates is very rapid. The dynamic specifications show that pass-through is significant in either the current or the following month, and the long-term impact is achieved during the second month.
