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Rethinking Financial Deepening
The global financial crisis experience shone a spotlight on the dangers of financial systems that have grown too big too fast. This note reexamines financial deepening, focusing on what emerging markets can learn from the advanced economy experience. It finds that gains for growth and stability from financial deepening remain large for most emerging markets, but there are limits on size and speed. When financial deepening outpaces the strength of the supervisory framework, it leads to excessive risk taking and instability. Encouragingly, the set of regulatory reforms that promote financial depth is essentially the same as those that contribute to greater stability. Better regulation—not necessarily more regulation—thus leads to greater possibilities both for development and stability.
Niger
This Selected Issues paper presents an external stability assessment on Niger. Niger’s current account balance deteriorated in 2013, mostly on account of higher food and capital goods imports. The deficit is expected to widen further in 2014–15, mainly driven by large investment in the extractive industry and basic infrastructure. The current account is projected to gradually improve from 2016 as important projects in infrastructure will come to end, the oil and mining sectors come on stream and public and private savings increase. Although aid and foreign direct investments are the main sources of external financing, external borrowing–mainly on concessional terms–has increased significantly.
The Eastern Caribbean Economic and Currency Union
The Eastern Caribbean Economic and Currency Union (OECS/ECCU) is one of four currency unions in the world. As in other parts of the world in the aftermath of the global economic and financial crisis, the region is at a crossroads, facing the major challenges of creating jobs, making growth more inclusive, reforming the banking system, and managing volatility, while grappling with high public debt and persistent low economic growth. Policymakers have the critical task of implementing strong reforms to strengthen the monetary union while also laying the foundation for accelerating growth. This Handbook provides a comprehensive analysis of the key issues in the OECS/ECCU, including its organization and economic and financial sector linkages, and provides policy recommendations to foster economic growth.
2024 Staff Guidance Note On The IMF’s Engagement With Small Developing States
This guidance note provides operational guidance on the Fund’s engagement with small developing states (SDS). It highlights the unique economic characteristics and constraints facing SDS, notably in a more shock-prone world. Building on advice that applies to the full membership, the note explains how the characteristics of SDS shape Fund surveillance, financial support and program design, capacity development (CD), and collaboration with other institutions and donors. The note updates the previous version that was published in December 2017.
Review of the Climate Macroeconomic Assessment Program Pilots
This paper reviews the two Climate Macroeconomic Assessment Program (CMAP) pilots and proposes a way forward. It builds on the experience of the previous six Climate Change Policy Assessment (CCPA) pilots, and the recent rollout of the World Bank’s Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR). It also accounts for early experience with countries requesting support under the Fund’s Resilience and Sustainability Trust (RST). Based on the lessons from pilots and recent developments, staff proposes to streamline the CMAP to focus on the Fund’s comparative advantages in the areas of mitigation, PFM and macro-fiscal impact of climate change policies, provide a streamlined CMAP in exceptional circumstances, and expand more targeted CD in particular in support of RSF countries. This focused and tailored approach would benefit members as it is more agile, allows the Fund to serve more members within the same resource envelope and enhance synergies with other Fund products and the World Bank’s CCDR.
Overarching Strategy on Data and Statistics at the Fund in the Digital Age
"The first data and statistics strategy for the Fund comes at a critical time. A fast-changing data landscape, new data needs for evolving surveillance priorities, and persisting data weaknesses across the membership pose challenges and opportunities for the Fund and its members. The challenges emerging from the digital revolution include an unprecedented amount of new data and measurement questions on growth, productivity, inflation, and welfare. Newly available granular and high-frequency (big) data offer the potential for more timely detection of vulnerabilities. In the wake of the crisis, Fund surveillance requires greater cross-country data comparability; staff and authorities face the ...
Resilience and Sustainability Facility—Operational Guidance Note
This note provides general guidance on the operationalization of the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) for arrangement requests and reviews. The RSF complements the existing IMF lending toolkit by providing longer-term, affordable financing to members to help them address longer-term structural challenges from climate change and pandemic preparedness. The note has benefited from experience gained during early operationalization of the RSF.
Understanding Countries’ Tax Effort
This paper presents a model to determine the tax effort and tax capacity of 113 countries and the main variables on which they depend. The results and the model allow a clear determination of which countries are near their tax capacity and which are some way from it, and therefore, could increase their tax revenue. This paper also determines central factors on which tax capacity depends: the level of development, trade, education, inflation, income distribution, corruption, and the ease of tax collection.
Paraguay
Paraguay continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic amidst simultaneous shocks that would lead to flat GDP growth and inflation above the IT range this year. Those conditions are reflected in rising social demands within a politicized environment before the 2023 general elections. The outlook remains favorable, and the authorities are pursuing policies to follow a stronger, more resilient, and inclusive development path. On the back of very positive experiences with Fund-supported programs, the authorities are requesting approval of a two-year program supported by the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) to underpin the implementation of needed structural reforms.
Antigua and Barbuda
The purpose of this Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) performance assessment is to provide an objective analysis of the present performance of the public financial management system in Antigua and Barbuda, and identify changes incurred since the last PEFA assessment undertaken in 2010. In the wake of a prolonged economic crisis, fiscal outcomes have not been consistent with the budget as approved. Central government public finances are comprehensively presented in budget documents, but some weaknesses persist. New policy initiatives and their budgetary implications are not sufficiently analyzed; a significant share of extra-budgetary expenditures remains unreported; and oversight and reporting requirements of statutory bodies are not yet fully enforced, impeding a comprehensive assessment of the associated fiscal risks. Although the revenue administration has been strengthened over the last years, the control over budget execution is still weak. There have been improvements in the quality of external audit, but lack of Parliamentary scrutiny undermines the accountability framework.
