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Paraguay
This Selected Issues paper for Paraguay discusses how capital inflows contributed to credit expansions. Capital inflows contribute to a rapid expansion of private credit, exacerbating credit and business cycles. These effects are stronger under more rigid exchange rate arrangements and in economies that are more closed to trade. Macroeconomic evidence for Paraguay suggests that local firms might have experienced a relaxation of credit constraints during the high capital inflows phase. Evidence also shows that consumption, investment, and output has grown above trend alongside a strong credit growth.
A Strategy for Resolving Europe's Problem Loans
Europe’s banking system is weighed down by high levels of non-performing loans (NPLs), which are holding down credit growth and economic activity. This discussion note uses a new survey of European country authorities and banks to examine the structural obstacles that discourage banks from addressing their problem loans. A three pillared strategy is advocated to remedy the situation, comprising: (i) tightened supervisory policies, (ii) insolvency reforms, and (iii) the development of distressed debt markets.
Cyprus
This Selected Issues paper on Cyprus models the evolution of the saving rate to help shed some light on its determinants, which could help inform medium-term projections. This paper suggests that household net wealth and unemployment are key determinants of the saving rate in Cyprus. Cypriot households dissaved in the period preceding the global crisis, as their wealth increased, and credit could be used to finance consumption. The data uncertainty, due to various data sources used and relatively short time-period may affect the regression results. Moreover, in the estimation, the endogeneity between household wealth and the saving rate, as well as between unemployment and the saving rate may have not been fully controlled through lags. Due to the lack of micro-level data, the analysis does not explore the distributional consideration with respect to wealth. Since wealth is likely distributed unevenly, high indebted households with limited wealth are likely to reduce their saving rate more than the average to support consumption in the face of economic stress. The forward-looking projections are also subject to considerable uncertainty and should be interpreted with care.
Assessing Country Risk
Assessing country risk is a core component of surveillance at the IMF. It is conducted through a comprehensive architecture, covering both bilateral and multilateral dimensions. This note describes some of the approaches used internally by Fund staff to examine a wide array of systemic risks across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies. It provides a high-level view of the theory and methodologies employed, with an on-line companion guide providing more technical details of implementation. The guide will be updated as Fund staff’s methodologies for assessing country risk continue to evolve with experience and feedback. While the results of these approaches are not published by the IMF for market sensitivity reasons, they inform risk assessments featured in bilateral surveillance as well as in the IMF’s flagship publications on global surveillance.
Ireland
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights Ireland’ continued position among the euro area’s top growth performers. Real GDP expanded by 5.2 percent in 2016, supported by a healthy expansion of private consumption and buoyant investment, including construction. Strong broad-based job creation brought unemployment down to 6.4 percent in May, its lowest level in a decade, while inflation remained low as the recent pickup in energy prices and upward pressure from services were partly offset by the impact of weakness in the British pound. The outlook remains positive, but with substantial, mainly externally driven, downside risks. Real GDP is projected to grow at 3.9 percent in 2017, propelled by strong domestic demand.
Building a More Resilient Financial Sector
The IMF, with the Bank for International Settlements and the Financial Stability Board, has been at the forefront of discussions on reform of the global financial system to reduce the possibility of future crises, as well as to limit the consequences if they do occur. The policy choices are both urgent and challenging, and are complicated by the relationship between sovereign debt and risks to the banking sector. Building a More Resilient Financial Sector describes the key elements of the reform agenda, including tighter regulation and more effective supervision; greater transparency to strengthen market discipline and limit incentives for risk taking; coherent mechanisms for resolution of failed institutions; and effective safety nets to limit the impact on the financial system of institutions viewed as "too big to fail." Finally, the book takes a look ahead at how the financial system is likely to be shaped by the efforts of policymakers and the private sector response.
Taking Stock of Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Europe
The demands on monetary and exchange rate regimes in CESEE have evolved, in line with the region’s development. In the 1990s, the immediate challenge was to rein in excessive inflation following transition, and to establish basic monetary order. These objectives have been achieved, owing largely to successful exchange rate–based stabilization. With this accomplished, the focus has shifted to cyclical monetary management, and to appropriately managing monetary conditions during CESEE’s growth and income convergence to the euro area. Flexible exchange rates—and the ensuing capacity of monetary conditions to adapt to the economies’ needs—are likely to remain advantages, especially to extent that CESEE’s GDP and income levels will resume convergence to the euro area. Once this process restarts, tighter monetary conditions will again be needed to limit goods and asset price inflation, and to contain growth imbalances.
Uruguay
This 2011 Article IV Consultation—Selected Issues paper focuses on estimating potential output and the output gap and spillovers from agriculture in the case of Uruguay. It introduces additional economic information and theory to estimate potential output, shedding some light on the discussion of current monetary and fiscal policies. The objective is to take advantage of economic data to disentangle the most recent economic performance by introducing multivariate techniques. The paper also presents an overview of the labor market and pension system of Uruguay.
World Economic Outlook, October 2014
The pace of recovery has disappointed in recent years, and downside risks have increased, including from heightened geopolitical tensions. These increased risks make it a priority to raise actual and potential growth. In a number of economies, an increase in public infrastructure investment can also provide support to demand and help boost potential output. And in advanced economies as well as emerging and developing economies there is a general, urgent need for structural reforms to strengthen growth potential or make growth more sustainable. The four individual chapters examine the overall global outlook, the prospects for individual countries and regions, the benefits of increased public infrastructure investment in terms of raising output, and the extent to which global imbalances have narrowed significantly since their peak in 2006.
Performance of Publicly Listed Chilean Firms During the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
This paper examines publicly listed Chilean firms’ performance during the 2008–09 crisis. In particular, it studies the effects from changes in external financing conditions, aggregate demand, and international trade on firms’ investment, sales, and profits, using firm-specific characteristics measured prior to the crisis. The evidence suggests that the crisis had a larger negative impact on firms with greater reliance on external financing, and firms with higher sensitivity to aggregate demand and exports. Firms with more foreign currency debt also had larger declines in sales, although their investment or profits did not differ significantly from other firms.
