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Essays on Risk and Uncertainty in Economics and Finance
This book adds to the resolution of two problems in finance and economics: i) what is macro-financial uncertainty? : How to measure it? How is it different from risk? How important is it for the financial markets? And ii) what sort of asymmetries underlie financial risk and uncertainty propagation across the global financial markets? That is, how risk and uncertainty change according to factors such as market states or market participants. In Chapter 2, which is entitled “Momentum Uncertainties”, the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and the abnormal returns of a momentum trading strategy in the stock market is studies. We show that high levels of uncertainty in the economy ...
Rational Decisions
It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to "look before you leap." If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics, Rational Decisions clearly explains the foundations of Bayesian decision theory and shows why Savage res...
Computational Science – ICCS 2008
The three-volume set LNCS 5101-5103 constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Computational Science, ICCS 2008, held in Krakow, Poland in June 2008. The 167 revised papers of the main conference track presented together with the abstracts of 7 keynote talks and the 100 revised papers from 14 workshops were carefully reviewed and selected for inclusion in the three volumes. The main conference track was divided into approximately 20 parallel sessions addressing topics such as e-science applications and systems, scheduling and load balancing, software services and tools, new hardware and its applications, computer networks, simulation of complex systems, image...
