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Potential Growth in Colombia
This paper uses a multivariate filter and a production function to project potential growth in Colombia, modeling in detail the impact of low oil prices on investment. The framework also captures the impact of current and planned policies on potential growth, including the peace agreement with the FARC, the tax reform, and 4G infrastructure projects. The analysis suggests the growth acceleration of the 2000s is unlikely to repeat itself in a world of lower oil prices. Potential growth is likely to moderate to a range of 2.8 to 4.1 percent. The 4G infrastructure projects and the tax reform will increase investment, partly offsetting the sharp decline in oil investment. Improvements in productivity are essential to lift potential growth, as the large increases in the labor force observed in the last 15 years are unlikely to continue.
The Dynamic Implications of Debt Relief for Low-Income Countries
The effects of debt relief on incentives to accumulate debt, consume, and invest are an important concern for donors and recipients. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy with a minimum consumption requirement and an endogenous relief probability, we show that excessive debt accumulation is consistent with an anticipation of a future debt relief. Simulations of the calibrated model using 1982-2006 Ugandan data suggest that debt-relief episodes are likely to have only a temporary impact on the level of debt in low-income countries, while being associated with more consumption and less invesment. The long-run debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated to be about twice as high with debt relief than without it.
Bottom-Up Default Analysis of Corporate Solvency Risk
This paper suggests a novel approach to assess corporate sector solvency risk. The approach uses a Bottom-Up Default Analysis that projects probabilities of default of individual firms conditional on macroeconomic conditions and financial risk factors. This allows a direct macro-financial link to assessing corporate performance and facilitates what-if scenarios. When extended with credit portfolio techniques, the approach can also assess the aggregate impact of changes in firm solvency risk on creditor banks’ capital buffers under different macroeconomic scenarios. As an illustration, we apply this approach to the corporate sector of the five largest economies in Latin America.
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2012, Western Hemisphere
Growth in much of Latin America remains solid, although it slowed during the second half of 2011 as result of the combined effects of policy tightening and global uncertainties. Under our baseline, we expect growth in Latin America and the Caribbean to moderate to about 33⁄4 percent in 2012, from about 41⁄2 last year. For many countries, high commodity prices and easy external financing conditions will provide tailwinds. For others, weak growth in the United States and other advanced-country partners, or homegrown fiscal problems, will hold back activity. This edition of the Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere elaborates on three key themes. First, the global economic environme...
Bankruptcy and Firm Dynamics
Financial frictions have been documented as an important determinant of firm dynamics. In this paper I model bankruptcy procedures, liquidation in particular, as an institutional feature that affects both sides of financial transactions. I construct a model of firm dynamics that generate endogenous borrowing limits and I find that a) inefficient bankruptcy procedures can have quantitatively important aggregate effects, but more importantly; b) that such effects would not be directly visible in the firms that industrial censuses and surveys focus on. I conclude that to capture the effects of the legal framework we need to look beyond the existing firms.
Cluster Report
This cluster report takes stock of and explores opportunities for trade integration in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Drawing on a set of 12 analytical studies that will be issued as working papers, the report examines the determinants of trade, explores the potential to enhance LAC’s trade integration, and assesses the associated economic and social effects. To deepen understanding of the region’s policy options and trade strategies, the report also incorporates the views of LAC country authorities based on responses to a survey. This provides an opportunity to examine the alignment of recommendations based on the analytical findings with the region’s current trade policy priorities, with the caveat that the survey was conducted between late 2015 and mid-2016, prior to the most recent developments in the global trade landscape.
Performance of Publicly Listed Chilean Firms During the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis
This paper examines publicly listed Chilean firms’ performance during the 2008–09 crisis. In particular, it studies the effects from changes in external financing conditions, aggregate demand, and international trade on firms’ investment, sales, and profits, using firm-specific characteristics measured prior to the crisis. The evidence suggests that the crisis had a larger negative impact on firms with greater reliance on external financing, and firms with higher sensitivity to aggregate demand and exports. Firms with more foreign currency debt also had larger declines in sales, although their investment or profits did not differ significantly from other firms.
IMF Research Bulletin, Fall 2017
The Fall 2017 IMF Research Bulletin includes a Q&A article covering "Seven Questions on the Globalization of Farmland" by Christian Bogmans. The first research summary, by Manmohan Singh and Haobing Wang is "Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies: Some Policy Implications." The second research summary is "Leaning Against the Windy Bank Lending" by Giovanni Melina and Stefania Villa. A listing of new IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes is featured, as well as new titles from IMF Publications. Information on IMF Economic Review is also included.
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Western Hemisphere Department
The world economy and global trade are experiencing a broad-based cyclical upswing. Since October 2017, global growth outcomes and the outlook for 2018–19 have improved across all regions, reinforced by the expected positive near-term spillovers from tax policy changes in the United States. Accommodative global financial conditions, despite some tightening and market volatility in early February 2018, have been providing support to economic recovery. Higher commodity prices are contributing to an improved outlook for commodity exporters. The US and Canadian economies posted solid gains in 2017 and are expected to grow above potential in the near term. Despite the improved near-term outlook...
Guilt, Gender, and Work-Life Balance in Japan: A Choice Experiment
The quantification of how aspects of a job are valued by employees sheds light on the potential for labor market reform in Japan. Using a nationwide sample of 1,046 working-age adults, we conduct a choice experiment that examines individuals’ willingness to trade wages against job characteristics such as the extent of overtime, job security, the possibility of work transfer and relocation. Our results suggest that: i) workers have high WTP (willingness to pay) to avoid extreme overtime and work transfer, ii) women have higher WTP than men, and iii) higher WTP for women are driven in part by feelings of guilt.
