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Just-in-case Inventories
The authors find that raw materials inventories in the manufacturing sector in the 1970s and 1980s were two to three times higher in developing countries than in the United States, despite the fact that in most developing countries real interest rates were at least twice as high. Those significantly high levels of inventories are a burden and an obstacle to country competitiveness and need to be addressed. Poor infrastructure and ineffective regulation, as well as deficiencies in market development, rather than the traditional factors used in inventory models (such as interest rates and uncertainty), are the main determinants and explain these differences. Cross-country estimations show that a one standard deviation worsening of infrastructure increases raw materials inventories by 11 percent to 37 percent, and a one standard deviation worsening of markets increases raw materials inventories by 18 percent to 37 percent. These findings are robust across a number of different proxies and specifications, including an industry-level specification that controls for fixed country effects.
The Role of IMF Arrangements in Restoring Access to International Capital Markets
Using a database of emerging market fundamentals and bond index spreads across 56 frontier and emerging market countries rated below investment grade during the period 2002-22, we assess whether IMF arrangements can restore access to international capital markets (ICM) for countries in distress through liquidity and conditionality channels. We find that global financial conditions and debt/GDP are the most important determinants of access to ICM within the horizon of a typical IMF arrangement. Using an event study methodology, we show that spreads increase prior to the start of an IMF arrangement and then decrease gradually. By exploiting different characteristics of IMF arrangements, we find evidence that the reforms implemented under the IMF arrangement, as measured by rounds of successful IMF reviews, matter more in the medium term than the IMF’s role as a liquidity provider. These results are consistent with our analysis of 55 credit rating upgrades to ICM access levels, which suggests that debt reduction plays the largest role and that IMF arrangements lend credibility to reforms.
Inventories in Developing Countries
High inventory levels in developing countries increase the cost of doing business and limit productivity and competitiveness. Improvements in infrastructure (roads, ports, and telecommunications) and in market development can help to significantly reduce inventory levels (and thus the cost of doing business), especially when accompanied by effective regulation and the development and deregulation of associated markets.
Multifaceted Uncertainty Quantification
The book exposes three alternative and competing approaches to uncertainty analysis in engineering. It is composed of some essays on various sub-topics like random vibrations, probabilistic reliability, fuzzy-sets-based analysis, unknown-but-bounded variables, stochastic linearization, possible difficulties with stochastic analysis of structures.
Partisan Politics and Intergovernmental Transfers in India
Recently there has been a surge in international empirical evidence that national policymakers allocate resources across regions based on political considerations, in addition to any normative considerations of equity and efficiency. In order to mitigate these political compulsions, several federations around the world have attempted to create independent constitutional bodies that are responsible for determining federal transfers to subnational jurisdictions. The author tests whether constitutional rules indeed make a difference in curbing political influence by contrasting the impact of political variables on two types of intergovernmental transfers to states in the Indian federation over ...
Regulation and Private Sector Investment in Infrastructure
The author assesses the importance of the regulatory framework as a determinant of private sector investment in infrastructure. She uses recently compiled data on private and public sector investment in the water, power, telecommunications, railroads, and roads sectors between 1980 and 1998 in nine countries in Latin America. The author finds that the most significant institutional determinant of private investment volumes is the passage of legislation liberalizing the investment regime. This is important because it indicates that the legal basis for reform is probably more critical in determining the quality of the investment climate than specific aspects of the institutional framework governing private sector participation. In accordance with intuition, the author's results indicate that government action to increase regulatory certainty and minimize the perceived risk of expropriation through the establishment of independent regulatory bodies is a critical determinant of the volume of private investment flows. She also finds that the general relationship of private to public investment is one of substitutability.
Implicit Pension Debt, Transition Cost, Options and Impact of China's Pension Reform
China's population is aging rapidly: the old age dependency ratio will rise from 11 percent in 1999 to 25 percent in 2030 and 36 percent in 2050. Currently, three workers support one retiree; without reform, the system dependency ratio will climb to 69 percent in 2030 and 79 percent in 2050. The pension system has been in deficit, with an implicit pension debt in 2000 as high as 71 percent of GDP. The lack of an effective sustainable pension systemn is a serious obstacle to Chinese economic reform.
Integrating the Least Developed Countries Into the World Trading System
Trade preferences are a key element in industrial countries' efforts to assist the integration of least developed countries (LDCs) into the world economy. Brenton provides an initial evaluation of the impact of the European Union's recently introduced "Everything but Arms" (EBA) initiative on the products currently exported by the LDCs. He shows that the changes introduced by the EBA initiative in 2001 are relatively minor for currently exported products, primarily because over 99 percent of EU imports from the LDCs are in products which the EU had already liberalized, and the complete removal of barriers to the key remaining products-rice, sugar, and bananas-has been delayed. Brenton looks ...
