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Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Dutch Disease
We study the optimal foreign exchange (FX) intervention policy in response to a positive terms of trade shock and associated Dutch disease episode in a small open economy model. We find that during a Dutch disease episode tradable production drops below the socially optimal level, resulting in lower welfare under learningby- doing (LBD) externalities. FX reserves accumulation improves welfare by preventing a large appreciation of the real exchange rate and by inducing an efficient reallocation between the tradable and non-tradable sectors. For an empirically plausible parametrization of LBD externalities, the model predicts that in response to a 10 percent increase in commodity prices FX reserves should increase by 1.5 percent of GDP. We also find that the welfare gains from optimally using FX reserves are twice as high as the gains from relying only on monetary policy. These results suggest that FX intervention is a beneficial policy to counteract the loss of competitiveness during a Dutch disease episode.
Education Policy Strategies Today and Tomorrow Around the "Mare Balticum"
Knowledge and education are key factors for a successful future in modern, globalised times. This applies especially to the resource-poor Baltic Sea region and its small and medium sized enterprises. Without excellent qualified staff and executives they cannot compete on a global scale. The authors of this book - scientists, entrepreneurs and journalists - address the main problems of our education systems, ranging from schools to vocational training and universities. But not only do they analyse these diverse systems but also develop strategies for successfully meeting the challenges ahead of us.
Panama
This 2020 Article IV Consultation with Panama discusses that focuses on Panama’s near and medium-term challenges and policy priorities and was prepared before coronavirus disease 2019 became a global pandemic and resulted in unprecedented strains in global trade, commodity and financial markets. Growth is expected to recover to 4.8 percent in 2020. However, the balance of risks is tilted to the downside. A gradual fiscal consolidation can address the large fiscal imbalances while being mindful of the weak economy. Tax and customs administration reforms are needed to address the shortfall in revenues and provide room for public investment and social spending. The economic slowdown, which began in mid-2018 due to a construction strike, extended into 2019. The external current account deficit narrowed and remained adequately financed by foreign direct investment. As the economic situation in Venezuela continues to deteriorate, an increasing number of Venezuelans have migrated to Panama, creating additional social pressures.
Jamaica
Supported by strong policy frameworks, Jamaica has managed to respond to recent global shocks prudently. Policies have supported the economy while still reducing public debt and inflation. Growth has been solid, the external position has strengthened, and the economic outlook remains a positive one. The latter is still exposed to risks from a global growth deceleration, tighter than expected global financial conditions, commodity price volatility, and natural disasters.
Dollar Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Firm Level Data
This paper examines the impact of Dollar exchange rate volatility on firm productivity in Emerging Markets economies (EMs). Using firm level data covering 16 EMs over the period 1998 -2019, the paper shows that dollar exchange rate volatility reduces firm productivity growth. Exploring channels, its finds that the results are driven by countries with low level of financial development, high dollar invoicing, high bilateral trade with the US, high collective bargaining coverage and open capital account. Exploring the role of policy, it finds that Foreign Exchange Interventions (FXI) dampen this impact on firm productivty. Further, exploiting firm level data, the paper shows that dollar exchan...
Dominican Republic
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with the Dominican Republic discusses that the economy rebounded to a record high growth of 7 percent in 2018, with the positive momentum carrying into early 2019. The strong economic and policy performance has strengthened resilience to downside risks, but vulnerabilities remain. The fiscal position is under moderate sustainability and affordability pressures; key structural bottlenecks have not been addressed; and social outcomes can be further strengthened. Upcoming elections in 2020 are likely to dominate the near-term policy landscape. The outlook is favorable, with growth moderating to potential, inflation picking up toward target with fading supply shocks, and the external position normalizing. Risks are moderate and balanced: on the upside, solid income and credit growth could sustain domestic demand, while on the downside external risks are building up. Tighter fiscal policies are warranted by demand, sustainability and affordability considerations. A frontloaded adjustment, anchored on widening the tax base and mindful of the distributional effects of the adjustment measures, would help reverse the upward debt dynamics.
Jamaica
Jamaica has built a strong track record of investing in institutions and prioritizing macroeconomic stability. This aided the country to adapt to the difficult global environment of the past few years. The authorities provided targeted support to vulnerable households and firms during the pandemic but promptly scaled it back as conditions normalized. Similarly, in the wake of the war in Ukraine, domestic food and energy prices adjusted in line with shifts in international markets while targeted support was provided to the poor.
The Economic Impacts and the Regulation of AI: A Review of the Academic Literature and Policy Actions
We review the literature on the effects of Artificial Intelligence (AI) adoption and the ongoing regulatory efforts concerning this technology. Economic research encompasses growth, employment, productivity, and income inequality effects, while regulation covers market competition, data privacy, copyright, national security, ethics concerns, and financial stability. We find that: (i) theoretical research agrees that AI will affect most occupations and transform growth, but empirical findings are inconclusive on employment and productivity effects; (ii) regulation has focused primarily on topics not explored by the academic literature; (iii) across countries, regulations differ widely in scope and approaches and face difficult trade-offs.
Global Financial Stability Report, October 2021
Financial stability risks have been contained so far, reflecting ongoing policy support and a rebound in the global economy earlier this year. Chapter 1 explains that financial conditions have eased further in net in advanced economies but changed little in emerging markets. However, the optimism that propelled markets earlier in the year has faded on growing concerns about the strength of the global recovery, and ongoing supply chain disruptions intensified inflation concerns. Signs of stretched asset valuations in some market segments persist, and pockets of vulnerabilities remain in the nonbank financial sector; recovery is uneven in the corporate sector. Chapter 2 discusses the opportunities and challenges of the crypto ecosystem. Crypto asset providers’ lack of operational or cyber resilience poses risks, and significant data gaps imperil financial integrity. Crypto assets in emerging markets may accelerate dollarization risks. Chapter 3 shows that sustainable funds can support the global transition to a green economy but must be scaled up to have a major impact. It also discusses how a disorderly transition could disrupt the broader investment fund sector in the future.
Integrated Policy Framework—Principles for the Use of Foreign Exchange Intervention
This note guides policy advice on the use of foreign exchange intervention (FXI) as part of the Integrated Policy Framework (IPF) in Fund surveillance. The note provides general principles for the advice in countries with flexible exchange rates and sets out three use cases for FXI that are tied to specific frictions. It explores the use of FXI as part of an overall policy response, allowing the advice to differ with shocks, frictions, and country-specific circumstances.
