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Extremes
Essays by leading intellectuals and public figures explore extreme events, environments, and achievements.
On the Future
A provocative and inspiring look at the future of humanity and science from world-renowned scientist and bestselling author Martin Rees Humanity has reached a critical moment. Our world is unsettled and rapidly changing, and we face existential risks over the next century. Various outcomes—good and bad—are possible. Yet our approach to the future is characterized by short-term thinking, polarizing debates, alarmist rhetoric, and pessimism. In this short, exhilarating book, renowned scientist and bestselling author Martin Rees argues that humanity’s prospects depend on our taking a very different approach to planning for tomorrow. The future of humanity is bound to the future of science...
Black Wave
Despite the devastation caused by the magnitude 9.0 earthquake and 60-foot tsunami that struck Japan in 2011, some 96% of those living and working in the most disaster-stricken region of Tōhoku made it through. Smaller earthquakes and tsunamis have killed far more people in nearby China and India. What accounts for the exceptionally high survival rate? And why is it that some towns and cities in the Tōhoku region have built back more quickly than others? Black Wave illuminates two critical factors that had a direct influence on why survival rates varied so much across the Tōhoku region following the 3/11 disasters and why the rebuilding process has also not moved in lockstep across the re...
Law and Disaster
On the 11th of March 2011, an earthquake registering 9.0 on the Richter scale (the most powerful to ever strike Japan) hit the Tohoku region in northern Japan. The earthquake produced a devastating tsunami that wiped out coastal cities and towns, leaving 18,561 people dead or registered as missing. Due to the disaster, the capability of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, operated by Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), was compromised, causing nuclear meltdown. The hydrogen blast destroyed the facilities, resulting in a spread of radioactive materials, and, subsequently, serious nuclear contamination. This combined event – earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear meltdown – became known as the Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster. This book examines the response of the Japanese government to the disaster, and its attempts to answer the legal questions posed by the combination of earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear meltdown. Japanese law, policy, and infrastructure were insufficiently prepared for these disasters, and the country’s weaknesses were brutally exposed. This book analyses these failings, and discusses what Japan, and other countries, can learn from these events.
Verbraucherkreditregulierung in Japan
Julius Weitzdorfer analysiert die Ursachen und Folgen organisierter Kreditkriminalitat in Japan sowie Losungswege aus rechtssoziologischer und rechtsokonomischer Sicht. Denn seit der Jahrtausendwende hat sich Japans Verbraucherkreditwesen durch intensive Regulierung, extensive Rechtsprechung und forcierte Strafverfolgung grundlegend gewandelt. Der Autor zeichnet ein lebendiges Bild der Rechtstatsachen und leistet so auch einen Beitrag zur Beleuchtung der Schattenseiten der jungeren Wirtschafts- und Sozialgeschichte Japans, einschliesslich des illegalen Inkassos und der Schuldnersuizide. Dabei wird nicht nur eine letzte Forschungslucke im Bereich der Finanzmarktreformen seit Beginn der Japankrise vor 30 Jahren geschlossen. Auch die Aufarbeitung der weltweiten Neuregulierung von Verbraucherkrediten nach der globalen Finanzkrise wird um Japan erganzt. Dabei entsteht ein empirisch reichhaltiges Bild des japanischen Zivil-, Straf- und Aufsichtsrechts bis zum Ende der Heisei-Periode.
Sobre o Futuro
None
En el futuro
La humanidad ha alcanzado una situación crítica. El mundo que conocemos cambia a gran velocidad; durante el próximo siglo nos enfrentaremos a riesgos existenciales que acarrearán varias consecuencias, unas buenas, y otras, malas. Nuestro futuro dependerá de cómo nos planteemos ahora los actos del mañana; los avances en campos como la Biotecnología, la Cibertecnología, la Robótica y la Inteligencia artificial, si se usan con sabiduría, pueden ayudarnos a superar obstáculos como el cambio climático o la perspectiva de una guerra nuclear. Rees nos recuerda que no hay «plan B» para nuestro planeta: no disponemos de alternativas a la Tierra si no cuidamos de ella.
Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails
The book investigates the misapplication of conventional statistical techniques to fat tailed distributions and looks for remedies, when possible. Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress." Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=∞, and the real world is in between, under the "laws of the medium numbers"-which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence. A few examples: - The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, wi...
