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Stochastic Trends, Debt Sustainability and Fiscal Policy
We study empirically the reaction of fiscal policy to changes in the permanent and transitory components of GDP in a panel of countries. We find evidence that government spending tends to be counter-cyclical conditional on temporary shocks and pro-cyclical conditional on permanent shocks. We also find no evidence that developing countries are systematically different from developed ones in terms of fiscal policy. We present a theory featuring a fiscal reaction function to the output gap and a measure of debt sustainability. The fiscal impulse response to a permanent (temporary) shock to GDP is positive (negative) as the effect on debt sustainability (current output gap) dominates. The results are mostly sensitive to the relative weight of debt sustainability in the fiscal reaction function as well as to the extent of real rigidities in the economy.
Make Investment Scaling-Up Work in Benin
This paper conducts a systematic growth and fiscal analysis to determine: (1) the growth potential of Benin’s ambitious scaling-up of investment, and (2) how the government can generate the necessary fiscal space needed to increase investment without jeopardizing Benin’s solid macroeconomic performance.
Public Investment Efficiency in Sub-Saharan African Countries
There is significant room to improve public investment efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa. Investment in sub-Saharan African countries is lagging vis-à-vis peers such as emerging and developing Asia as well as Latin America and the Caribbean, and the region’s infrastructure is perceived as being of relatively low quality. Improving the efficiency of sizable investment programs in the region could contribute to more solid economic growth and help achieve desired social priorities and development goals. Results point to some variability in public investment efficiency within the region. Comparing efficiency scores across country groups suggests that investment efficiency in sub-Saharan Africa...
A World Trade Leading Index (WTLI)
This paper develops a new monthly World Trade Leading Indicator (WTLI) that relies on nonparametric and parametric approaches. Compared to the CPB World Trade Monitor’s benchmark indicator for global trade the WTLI captures turning points in global trade with an average lead between 2 and 3 months. We also show that this cyclical indicator is able to track the annual growth rate in global trade, suggesting that the recent slowdown is due in part to certain cyclical factors. This new tool can provide policy makers with valuable foresight into the future direction of economic activity by tracking world trade more efficiently.
Overcoming Data Sparsity: A Machine Learning Approach to Track the Real-Time Impact of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa
The COVID-19 crisis has had a tremendous economic impact for all countries. Yet, assessing the full impact of the crisis has been frequently hampered by the delayed publication of official GDP statistics in several emerging market and developing economies. This paper outlines a machine-learning framework that helps track economic activity in real time for these economies. As illustrative examples, the framework is applied to selected sub-Saharan African economies. The framework is able to provide timely information on economic activity more swiftly than official statistics.
Dynamic Factor Models
La version française de cet article peut être consultée à: "http://ssrn.com/abstract=2243625" http://ssrn.com/abstract=2243625For few years, the increasing size of available economic and financial databases has led econometricians to develop and adapt new methods in order to efficiently summarize information contained in those large datasets. Among those methods, dynamic factor models have known a rapid development and a large success among macroeconomists. In this paper, we carry out a review of the recent literature on dynamic factor models. First we present the models used, then the parameter estimation methods and finally the statistical tests available to choose the number of factors. In the last section, we focus on recent empirical applications, especially dealing with the building of economic outlook indicators, macroeconomic forecasting and macroeconomic and monetary policy analyses.
Pour un stimulus réussi de l’investissement au Bénin
Le document se propose de réaliser une analyse systématique de la croissance et du budget pour répondre à deux questions : (1) Quel est le potentiel de croissance de cette ambitieuse augmentation des investissements ? (2) Comment le gouvernement peut-il ménager l’espace budgétaire nécessaire pour accroître les investissements sans compromettre la solide performance macroéconomique du Bénin ?
Pour un stimulus réussi de l’investissement au Bénin
Le document se propose de réaliser une analyse systématique de la croissance et du budget pour répondre à deux questions : (1) Quel est le potentiel de croissance de cette ambitieuse augmentation des investissements ? (2) Comment le gouvernement peut-il ménager l’espace budgétaire nécessaire pour accroître les investissements sans compromettre la solide performance macroéconomique du Bénin ?
