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Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy
Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a monetary policy block, which allows estimating the neutral rate of interest for the U.S. economy. The addition of the monetary policy block further improves the reliability of the structural multivariate filter.
Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis
This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep recessions (expansions) cause persistent damage (improvement) to the labor market, thereby reducing (increasing) potential output. Applying the model to U.S. data results in significantly smaller estimates of output gaps, and higher estimates of the NAIRU, after the global financial crisis, compared to estimates without hysteresis. The smaller output gaps partly explain the absence of persistent deflation despite the slow recovery during 2010-2017. Going forward, if strong growth performance continues well beyond 2018, hysteresis is expected to result in a structural improvement in growth and employment.
Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy
Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a monetary policy block, which allows estimating the neutral rate of interest for the U.S. economy. The addition of the monetary policy block further improves the reliability of the structural multivariate filter.
Stamp Duties in Indian States
Evidence indicates that the current high duty rates, coupled with weak tax administration, lead to widespread evasion of the tax through underdeclaration. This underdeclaration of property values directly affects collection of other taxes, among them, property taxes and capital gains tax. Moreover, it indirectly affects the collection of all taxes through the impact of underdeclaration on the circulation of black money. Simulations indicate that revenues lost due to a lowering of stamp duty rates closer to international levels are quite likely to be recovered in higher collections of other taxes. However, these taxes would at least in part be collected by other levels of government. So reform could be made a more viable option through appropriately designed intergovernmental transfers.
The Russian Flat Tax Reform
Russia dramatically reduced its higher rates of personal income tax (PIT) in 2001 establishing a single marginal rate at the low level of 13 percent. In the following year, real revenue from the PIT actually increased by about 26 percent. This 'flat tax' experience has attracted much attention (and emulation) among policymakers, making it perhaps the most important tax reform of recent years. But it has been little studied. This paper asks whether the strong revenue performance of the PIT was itself a consequence of this reform, using both macro evidence and, in particular, micro-level data on the experiences of individuals and households affected by the reform to varying degrees. It concludes that there is no evidence of a strong supply side effect of the reform. Compliance, however, did improve quite substantially-by about one third according to our estimates-though it remains unclear whether this was due to the parametric reforms or to accompanying changes in enforcement.
Customs Modernization Handbook
Trade integration contributes substantially to economic development and poverty alleviation. In recent years much progress was made to liberalize the trade regime, but customs procedures are often still complex, costly and non-transparent. This situation leads to misallocation of resources. 'Customs Modernization Handbook' provides an overview of the key elements of a successful customs modernization strategy and draws lessons from a number of successful customs reforms as well as from customs reform projects that have been undertaken by the World Bank. It describes a number of key import procedures, that have proved particularly troublesome for customs administrations and traders, and provides practical guidelines to enhance their efficiency. The Handbook also reviews the appropriate legal framework for customs operations as well as strategies to combat corruption.
Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework
We study a wide range of hybrid inflation-targeting (IT) and managed exchange rate regimes, analyzing their implications for inflation, output and the exchange rate in the presence of various domestic and external shocks. To this end, we develop an open economy new-Keynesian model featuring sterilized interventions in the foreign exchange (FX) market as an additional central bank instrument operating alongside the Taylor rule, and affecting the economy through portfolio balance sheet effects in the financial sector. We find that there can be advantages to combining IT with some degree of exchange rate management via FX interventions. Unlike "pure" IT or exchange rate management via interest rates, FX interventions can help insulate the economy against certain shocks, especially shocks to international financial conditions. However, managing the exchange rate through FX interventions may also hinder necessary exchange rate adjustments, e.g., in the presence of terms of trade shocks.
Olympic Insignia Protection Act 1987 (Australia) (2018 Edition)
Olympic Insignia Protection Act 1987 (Australia) (2018 Edition) The Law Library presents the complete text of the Olympic Insignia Protection Act 1987 (Australia) (2018 Edition). Updated as of May 15, 2018 This book contains: - The complete text of the Olympic Insignia Protection Act 1987 (Australia) (2018 Edition) - A table of contents with the page number of each section
Customs Modernization Initiatives
A companion to the 'Customs Modernization Handbook', this book provides case studies on customs modernization initiatives in seven countries: Bolivia, Morocco, Mozambique, Peru, the Philippines, Turkey, and Uganda. The initiatives in each of these countries show similarities as well as differences in their approach and design. Some have relied on a model of independent revenue authorities (Uganda and Peru), others have called upon private sector service providers to initiate the modernization process (Mozambique), others have taken the drastic step of a complete overhaul of their customs staff (Bolivia and Mozambique), others introduced new information technology to streamline customs processes and to integrate other members of the trading community into an electronic network (Ghana), while still others have approached the modernization process as a pragmatic, well-focused, result-oriented process.
The Chicago Plan Revisited
At the height of the Great Depression a number of leading U.S. economists advanced a proposal for monetary reform that became known as the Chicago Plan. It envisaged the separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system, by requiring 100% reserve backing for deposits. Irving Fisher (1936) claimed the following advantages for this plan: (1) Much better control of a major source of business cycle fluctuations, sudden increases and contractions of bank credit and of the supply of bank-created money. (2) Complete elimination of bank runs. (3) Dramatic reduction of the (net) public debt. (4) Dramatic reduction of private debt, as money creation no longer requires simultaneous debt creation. We study these claims by embedding a comprehensive and carefully calibrated model of the banking system in a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. We find support for all four of Fisher's claims. Furthermore, output gains approach 10 percent, and steady state inflation can drop to zero without posing problems for the conduct of monetary policy.
