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Sovereign Debt Restructurings in Belize
This paper examines the causes, processes, and outcomes of the two Belize sovereign debt restructurings in 2006–07 and in 2012–13 that occurred outside of an IMF-supported program. It finds that the motivation for the two debt restructurings differed, as the former was driven by external liquidity concerns while the latter was motivated by a substantial increase in the coupon rates and future fiscal solvency concerns. Despite differential treatment between residents and non-residents, both 2006–07 and 2012–13 debt exchanges were executed through collaborative engagement, due in part to the existence of a broad-based creditor committee and the authorities’ effective communication strategy. However, while providing temporary liquidity relief, neither of the debt restructurings properly addressed long-term debt sustainability concerns. Going forward, the success of the 2012–13 debt restructuring will still depend on the country’s ability to strengthen fiscal efforts and public debt management framework.
Belize
This Selected Issues paper assesses the current strength of the balance sheets of large banks in Belize and takes stock of progress made on the regulatory, supervisory, and crisis management frameworks since the 2011 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). The improvement in financial stability indicators was boosted by implementation of key FSAP recommendations. The Central Bank strengthened provisioning and loan classification standards. The new rules force banks to focus more on the borrower’s capacity to repay the loan rather than on the value of collaterals. The regulatory, supervisory, and crisis management frameworks as well as the financial infrastructure could be further strengthened. The supervision department of the Central Bank could be strengthened with examiners specializing in information technologies (IT) with the view of ensuring the integrity of banks’ IT systems. Asset quality reviews and forward-looking stress tests could complement current supervisory practices and improve Central Bank’s assessments of banks’ balance sheets.
Barbados
This 2011 Article IV Consultation highlights that the difficult global economic conditions continue to hit Barbados with growth at anemic levels. The current account deficit has widened in recent times owing to higher oil and food prices. Executive Directors commended the authorities for adopting a revised Medium-Term Fiscal Strategy aimed at generating a balanced budget. They emphasized that fiscal consolidation should focus on expenditure reduction, including lowering the wage bill, reducing transfers to public enterprises, and minimizing tax exemptions.
Colombia
This Selected Issues paper addresses key areas that would contribute to maintaining macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth. Strong economic growth in Colombia has significantly reduced poverty, but has had limited impact on reducing inequality. Strong growth and social programs have helped reduce poverty. Going forward, efforts to further strengthen education, pension, and tax systems stand to yield important social gains, as recognized by the national development plan. Labor market distortions have declined in recent years, but challenges remain. The elimination of infrastructure gaps will also play a key role in sustaining strong and broad-based growth, and supporting further economic diversification.
Barbados
This paper discusses key findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment Report on Barbados. Barbados has a relatively well-developed financial system, including a large offshore sector. The onshore system is dominated by large, regionally active banks. Banking services to the population are also provided by the credit union sector. With a deteriorating fiscal situation and weak growth prospects, Barbados faces considerable macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Although the financial system does not appear to be a source of immediate risk, its position appears to be deteriorating, with implications for systemic stability.
Guyana
The economy has experienced seven consecutive years of robust growth, buoyed by high commodity prices, foreign direct investment and expansion of private sector credit. As part of a strategy to sustain growth, reduce poverty and curtail dependence on imported oil, the authorities are pursuing the Amaila Falls Hydro-electric Project (AFHP), entailing investment of about 30 percent of GDP. However, steps by Parliament that delayed important approvals led the private sector partner to withdraw, which could delay the project while additional financing is sought. Meanwhile, public debt remains high—around 60 percent of GDP—limiting the room to finance inclusive growth.
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2016, Western Hemisphere Department
The United States has seen an improvement in economic activity, driven by consumption, and has taken a first step toward gradual normalization of interest rates. The U.S. recovery continues to support activity in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean, but China’s slowdown has reduced the demand for exports from South America. At the same time, the region’s commodity exporters have experienced further terms-of-trade shocks as commodity prices continue their decline globally. This report describes the policies and economic reforms needed to address the declining productive capacity in Latin America and the Caribbean. Three chapters assess corporate vulnerabilities in Latin America, analyze the degree of exchange rate pass-through in the region, and evaluate trends in public and private infrastructure investment.
IMF Research Bulletin, September 2014
This issue of the IMF Research Bulletin opens with a letter from the new editor, Rabah Arezki. The Research Summaries are a "Primer on 'Global Liquidity'" (Eugenio Cerutti, Stijn Claessens, and Lev Ratnovski); and "Trade Integration adn Business Cycle Synchronization" (Kevin Cheng, Romain Duval, and Dulani Senevirante). The Q&A column looks at "Seven Questions on the Global Housing Markets" (Hites Ahir, Heedon Kang, and Prakash Loungani). September 2014 issue of the Bulletin also includes updates on IMF Working Papers, Staff Discussion Notes, and Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore, as well as special announcements on new staff publications and the Fifteenth Annual Jacques Polak Research Conference. Also included is information on the latest issue of “IMF Economic Review” with a link to an article by Paul Krugman.
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2015: Western Hemisphere Department
The economic outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean remains very challenging. Regional growth is projected to decline for a fifth consecutive year in 2015, dipping below 1 percent. Weakness is concentrated among South America's commodity exporters, where falling global commodity prices have compounded country-specific challenges. Meanwhile, growth is projected to be steady or stronger for most of the Caribbean, Central America, and Mexico, supported by lower oil bills for importers and robust economic recovery in the United States. The analysis in this report examines core challenges facing the region: the impact of lower commodity prices on fiscal and external positions, the drivers of the slowdown in investment, and the role of economic diversification for longer-term growth prospects.
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2015: Western Hemisphere Department
Economies in the Western Hemisphere are generally seeing a slowdown in growth. The U.S. economy regained momentum after a slow start at the beginning of the year, while in Latin America and the Caribbean economic activity continues to decelerate. Stronger U.S. growth should benefit countries in the region, especially those with tighter links through trade, remittances, and tourism (Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean). Weaker commodity prices for the foreseeable future, however, will continue to hurt South America's net commodity exporters, lowering national incomes, reducing investment, and worsening fiscal balances. These developments could, in turn, impede progress made in recent y...
