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From Miracle to Maturity
"The economic growth of South Korea has been a remarkable success story. After the Korean War, the country was one of the poorest economies on the planet; by the twenty-first century, it had become a middle-income country, a member of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (the club of advanced economies), and home to some of the world’s leading industrial corporations. And yet, many Koreans are less than satisfied with their country’s economic performance, given the continuing financial volatility and sluggish growth since the Korean economic crisis of 1997–1998. From Miracle to Maturity offers a comprehensive qualitative and quantitative analysis of the growth of the Korean economy, starting with the aggregate sources of growth (growth of the labor force, the stock of capital, and productivity) and then delving deeper into the roles played by structural change, exports, foreign investment, and financial development. The authors provide a detailed examination of the question of whether the Korean economy is now underperforming and ask, if so, what can be done to solve the problem."
Mapping the Shadow Banking System Through a Global Flow of Funds Analysis
This paper presents an approach to understanding the shadow banking system in the United States using a new Global Flow of Funds (GFF) conceptual framework developed by the IMF’s Statistics Department (STA). The GFF uses external stock and flow matrices to map claims between sector-location pairs. Our findings highlight the large positions and gross flows of the U.S. banking sector (ODCs) and its interconnectedness with the banking sectors in the Euro area and the United Kingdom. European counterparties are large holders of U.S. other financial corporations (OFCs) debt securities. We explore the relationship between credit to domestic entities and the growth of non-core liabilities. We find that external debt liabilities of the financial sector are procyclical and are closely aligned with domestic credit growth.
The Tortuous Path of South Korean Economic Development
This book explains how South Korea has uniquely transformed itself from a developing to a developed country by combining economic analysis with historical perspective, an approach badly needed but rarely taken by previous studies. The book shows that the country has done so through a tortuous process. It first explains how Korea failed earlier in history to emerge as a developing rather than a developed country after the Second World War but South Korea began to grow rapidly in the 1960s. It then explains that the country has sustained growth while undergoing recurring crises, examining three conditions for sustaining growth: macroeconomic management, structural transformation, and social conflict management. While doing so, the book interprets some important subjects differently from the previous studies; it also explains some other important subjects they have not covered sufficiently. The book finally discusses questions for the future briefly.
Understanding Financial Interconnectedness
This paper seeks to advance our understanding of global financial interconnectedness by (i) mapping aspects of the architecture of global finance and (ii) investigating critical fault lines related to interconnectedness along which systemic risks were built up and shocks transmitted in the crisis. It thus takes initial steps toward operationalizing enhanced financial sector and macro-financial surveillance called for by the IMF’s Executive Board and by experts such as de Larosiere et al. (2009). Getting a better handle on interconnectedness would strengthen the Fund‘s ability, together with the Financial Stability Board, to track systemic risk concentrations. It would also inform spillover and vulnerability analyses, and sharpen bilateral and multilateral surveillance.
International Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy
How does domestic monetary policy in systemic countries spillover to the rest of the world? This paper examines the transmission channel of domestic monetary policy in the cross-border context. We use exogenous shocks to monetary policy in systemically important economies, including the U.S., and local projections to estimate the dynamic effect of monetary policy shocks on bilateral cross-border bank lending. We find robust evidence that an increase in funding costs following an exogenous monetary tightening leads to a statistically and economically significant decline in cross-border bank lending. The effect is weakened during periods of high uncertainty. In contrast, the effect is found to not vary according to the degree of borrower country riskiness, further weakening support for the international portfolio rebalancing channel.
From Stress to Growth
Asian financial systems, which serve the most economically dynamic region of the world, survived the global economic crisis of the last several years. In From Stress to Growth: Strengthening Asia's Financial Systems in a Post-Crisis World, scholars affiliated with the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the Asian Development Bank argue in separate essays that Asian systems must strengthen their quality, diversity, and resilience to future shocks in order to deliver growth in coming years. The book examines such phenomena as the dominance of state-owned banks, the growth of non-bank lending (the so-called shadow banks), and the need to develop local bond markets, new financial ...
Taming Financial Development to Reduce Crises
This paper assesses whether and how financial development triggers the occurrence of banking crises. It builds on a database that includes financial development as well as financial access, depth and efficiency for almost 100 countries. Through estimation of a dynamic logit panel model, it appears that financial development, from an institutional dimension and to a lesser extent from a market dimension, triggers financial instability within a one- to two-year horizon. Additionally, whereas financial access is destabilizing for advanced countries, it is stabilizing for emerging and low income ones. Both results have important implications for macroprudential policies and financial regulations.
Frontier and Developing Asia
With a combined population of more than 350 million people, frontier and developing Asia, which includes countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia, and Bangladesh, is located in the world’s fastest-growing region and has favorable demographics. The countries share a number of common macroeconomic, financial, and structural challenges. This book addresses issues related to economic growth and structural transformation, as well as the risk of a poverty trap and rising income inequality.
Macroprudential Frameworks in Asia
This Departmental Paper portrays a cross-country dimension of macroprudential policy implementation in Asia, advancing a comprehensive overview of institutional arrangements and instruments deployed by individual countries to address systemic risk, including risk concentration and interconnectedness. This book is the first comprehensive collection of papers assessing the existing institutional arrangements for macroprudential policies in Asia.
Toward an East Asian Exchange Rate Regime
East Asian exchange rates have become a global flashpoint. U.S. policymakers blame artificially low Asian currency values for global imbalances, including America's ballooning current account deficit. The solution, they argue, lies in some combination of greater exchange rate flexibility and the appreciation of Asian currencies against the dollar. Asian officials recognize the need to let their exchange rates rise, but they fear that would hamper growth and cut sharply into the value of their dollar reserves. Toward an East Asian Exchange Rate Regime offers a timely and comprehensive analysis of the resulting debates, drawing on expertise from China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States...
