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Toward an Understanding of Household Vulnerability in Rural Kenya
Considerations of risk and vulnerability are key to understanding the dynamics of poverty. Christiaensen and Subbarao conceive vulnerability as expected poverty and illustrate a methodology to empirically assess household vulnerability using pseudo panel data derived from repeated cross sections augmented with historical information on shocks. Application of the methodology to data from rural Kenya shows that in 1994 rural households faced on average a 40 percent chance of becoming poor in the future. Households in arid areas that experience large rainfall volatility appear more vulnerable than those in non-arid areas, where malaria emerges as a key risk factor. Idiosyncratic shocks also cau...
The Role of Agriculture in Poverty Reduction
The relative contribution of a sector to poverty reduction is shown to depend on its direct and indirect growth effects as well as its participation effect. The paper assesses how these effects compare between agriculture and non-agriculture by reviewing the literature and by analyzing cross-country national accounts and poverty data from household surveys. Special attention is given to Sub-Saharan Africa. While the direct growth effect of agriculture on poverty reduction is likely to be smaller than that of non-agriculture (though not because of inherently inferior productivity growth), the indirect growth effect of agriculture (through its linkages with nonagriculture) appears substantial ...
Growth, Distribution and Poverty in Africa
This publication analyses country studies into poverty dynamics over the past decade in eight African countries: Ethiopia, Ghana, Madagascar, Mauritania, Nigeria, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Using improved household survey data, the book provides an overview of poverty trends and considers the impact of policy reforms to promote economic growth and poverty reduction. The report highlights the importance of the following factors in the success of poverty reduction strategies in Africa: country location, as some regions have failed to benefit from economic growth due to their remoteness; the role of infrastructure, such as a viable road network; access to education and land are key private endowments in helping households to benefit from emerging economic opportunities; and the significance of social protection measures for poverty outcomes.
Down to Earth
This book contributes to the debate about the role of agriculture in poverty reduction by addressing three sets of questions: Does investing in agriculture enhance/harm overall economic growth, and if so, under what conditions? Do poor people tend to participate more/less in growth in agriculture than in growth in other sectors, and if so, when? If a focus on agriculture would tend to yield larger participation by the poor, but slower overall growth, which strategy would tend to have the largest payoff in terms of poverty reduction, and under which conditions?
Rural Household Vulnerability and Insurance Against Commodity Risks
This report has two objectives. It assesses the nature and the extent of vulnerability among rural households in Tanzania with a particular focus on smallholder cash crop growers though exploring all risks, including the decline in commodity prices. It further explores the potential role for market based insurance schemes such as commodity price and weather based insurance to mitigate household vulnerability. The empirical analysis is based on two rounds of specifically designed representative surveys of farm households in Kilimanjaro and Ruvuma, two cash crop growing regions in the United Republic of Tanzania in 2003 and 2004. The contrasting experiences of a richer (Kilimanjaro) and a poorer (Ruvuma) region substantially enriches the policy guidance emerging from the report. The report applies descriptive, econometric and contingent valuation techniques to achieve its objectives.
Consumption Risk, Technology Adoption, and Poverty Traps
Much has been written on the determinants of input and technology adoption in agriculture, with issues such as input availability, knowledge and education, risk preferences, profitability, and credit constraints receiving much attention. This paper focuses on a factor that has been less well documented-the differential ability of households to take on risky production technologies for fear of the welfare consequences if shocks result in poor harvests. Building on an explicit model, this is explored in panel data for Ethiopia. Historical rainfall distributions are used to identify the counterfactual consumption risk. Controlling for unobserved household and time-varying village characteristics, it emerges that not just ex-ante credit constraints, but also the possibly low consumption outcomes when harvests fail, discourage the application of fertilizer. The lack of insurance causes inefficiency in production choices.
Child Growth, Shocks, and Food Aid in Rural Ethiopia
Over the past decades child stunting in Ethiopia has persisted at alarming rates. While the country experienced several droughts during this period, it also received enormous amounts of food aid, leading some to question the effectiveness of food aid in reducing child malnutrition. Using nationally representative household surveys from 1995-96 and controlling for program placement, Yamano, Alderman, and Christiaensen find that children between 6 and 24 months experienced about 0.9 cm less growth over a six-month period in communities where half the crop area was damaged compared with those without crop damage. Food aid was also found to have a substantial effect on the growth of children in this age group. And on average, the total amount of food aid appeared to be sufficient to protect children against plot damage, an encouraging sign that food aid can act as an effective insurance mechanism, though its cost-effectiveness needs further investigation.
Validating Operational Food Insecurity Indicators Against a Dynamic Benchmark
Indicators of household food insecurity are typically static and thus ignore a key dimension of food insecurity. An explicitly forward-looking food insecurity indicator is developed that takes into account both current dietary inadequacy and vulnerability to dietary inadequacy in the future. Relative to this dynamic benchmark three readily available indicators are evaluated.
World Development Report 2014
The World Development Report 2014 examines how improving risk management can lead to larger gains in development and poverty reduction. It argues that improving risk management is crucial to reduce the negative impacts of shocks and hazards, but also to enable people to pursue new opportunities for growth and prosperity.
The New Global Trading Order
The international institutions that have governed global trade since the end of World War II have lost their effectiveness, and global trade governance is fractured. The need for new institutions is obvious, and yet, few proposals seem to be on offer. The key to understanding the global trading order lies in uncovering the relationship between trade and the State, and how the inner constitution of Statecraft drives the architecture of the global order and requires structural changes as the State traverses successive cycles. The current trade order, focused on the liberalization of trade in goods and services and the management of related issues, is predicated on policies and practices that were the product of a global trading order of the 20th-century modern nation-states. Today, a new form of the State - the post-modern State - is evolving. In this book, the authors propose a new trade norm - the enablement of global economic opportunity - and a new institution - the Trade Council - to overhaul the global trading order.
