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A Projection Model for Resource-rich and Dollarized Economy: The Democratic Republic of the Congo
The paper introduces a semi-structural Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) tailored for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), highlighting its resource richness and high degree of dollarization. We provide an overview of the model's specifications to elucidate key features of the DRC economy and present its properties, evaluating its alignment with DRC data and assessing its goodness of fit. Additionally, the paper demonstrates the QPM's practical application through a counterfactual scenario, comparing policy recommendations with the actual policy responses of the Central Bank of the Republic of Congo to observed exchange rate and inflation pressures in 2023. Beyond the QPM, the paper showcases supplementary tools that enhance its utility for generating medium-term forecasts and developiong narratives in support of monetary policymaking. Specifically, we introduce the Nowcasting and Near-Term Forecast models, designed to assess the economy in real-time and predict short-term inflationary trends.
Chad
This paper analyzes the effect of an IMF Staff-Monitored Program for Chad to enhance economic development. Weak institutional capacity and governance concerns have limited economic development and donor support in Chad. It is highlighted that the reduction in the nonoil primary deficit envisaged in the 2013 budget appears appropriate, but expenditures linked to the regional security situation and lower than anticipated oil revenues imply large financing needs. There are significant economic and political risks to program implementation,; the regional security situation remains volatile, and the economy is highly dependent on volatile oil revenue.
Fermented Fish in Africa
This report is based on surveys carried out in Burundi, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, the Gambia, Ghana, Mali, Senegal, the Sudan and Uganda to identify the various types of fermented fishery products, their processing characteristics and economic importance. It was observed that fermented fish processing is an artisanal activity and the processes differ from one country to another. Three basic methods were identified: fermentation with salting and drying; fermentation and drying without salting; and fermentation with salting but no drying. It was also observed in the study that, unlike in Southeast Asian countries, fermented fishery products in Africa are usually whole or in cut pieces, and are not...
How Have IMF Priorities Evolved? A Text Mining Approach
This paper assess how priorities of the IMF’s membership have evolved over the past two decades, by using text mining techniques on a unique dataset combining IMFC communiqués and constituency statements. Our results reveal significant variation in priorities across time and constituencies. Statements can be characterized by the weight which they place on three key priorities: (i) growth; (ii) debt and development; and (iii) crisis management and quota reform. Sentiment analysis techniques also show that addressing climate change is a topic which is viewed positively by an increasing number of constituencies.
Natural Resource Taxation in Mexico: Some Considerations
Mexico has large extractive industries and it traditionally has raised sizable fiscal revenues from the oil and gas sector. A confluence of factors—elevated commodity prices, financial challenges of the state-owned oil company Pemex, and revenue needs for financing social and public investment spending over the medium term—suggest that a review of Mexico’s taxation regimes for natural resources would be opportune, against the backdrop of a comprehensive approach to tackling Mexico’s challenges. This paper identifies opportunities for redesigning mining taxation to increase somewhat the revenue intake while maintaining the favorable investment profile of the sector. It also discusses recent reforms to the oil and gas fiscal regime and future reform considerations, with attention to the attractiveness of investment on commercial terms—an issue that should be placed in the context of an overall reform of Pemex’s business strategy and possibly of the energy sector more generally.
And We Came Outside and Saw the Stars Again
In this rich, eye-opening, and uplifting digital anthology, dozens of esteemed writers, poets, and artists from more than thirty countries send literary dispatches from life during the pandemic. Net proceeds benefit booksellers in need. As our world is transformed by the coronavirus pandemic, writers offer a powerful antidote to the fearful confines of isolation: a window onto lives and corners of the world beyond our own. In Mauritius, a journalist contends with denialism and mourns the last days of summer, lost to the lockdown. In Paris, a writer struggles to protect his young son from fear. In Chile, protesters who prevailed against tear gas and rubber bullets are now halted by a virus. I...
