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Trade, Finance and Financial Crises
This study by the WTO explains the basic links between trade and the financial sector, and how financial crises are interrelated with trade. This study also includes case studies on past financial crises.--Publisher's description
Public Spending and the Role of the State
Up-to-date, holistic and comprehensive discussion of public expenditure, its history, value for money, risks and remedies.
Public Spending in the 20th Century
After a detailed account of reform experiences in several countries and the public debate regarding government reform, the study closes with an outlook on the future role of the state, a period when globalization may require and people may want "leaner" but not "meaner" states."--Jacket.
Debt Sustainability
This study presents the facts, arguments and scenarios around public debt from a global perspective. Especially the largest economies feature record debt and fiscal risks, including from population ageing and financial imbalances. Given low interest rates, there is no imminent problem. But at some point, debt will have to come down. There are four possible scenarios how debt could come down. First, governments could economise and reform. Second, governments could default. Third, governments could erode the real value of debt via inflation and negative real interest rates. However, this scenario cannot continue forever. Policy errors can prompt a loss of confidence, destabilisation and crisis. This fourth scenario last included the largest economies in the 1970s. It would become a major global challenge if it were to happen again in today's interconnected world.
The Growth of Government and the Reform of the State in Industrial Countries
This paper describes the growth of public spending in industrial countries over the past century. It identifies several periods: the periods between 1870 and 1913; the period between the two World Wars; the post World War II period up to 1960; and the period after 1960. Public spending started growing during World War I but its growth accelerated after 1960. The paper outlines the reasons for this growth and speculates that recent government growth has not brought about much economic or social progress. The paper sees the future of government mainly in setting the “rules of the game,” and provides a rough blueprint for reform. It also discusses experiences with government reform in selected count les, and predicts that over the next decades, public spending as a share of GDP will fall.
Trade Protection in the European Community
This book, first published in 1992, provides an in-depth analysis of the EC policy-making processes elating to trade protection. It argues that the decision-making process is biased towards national policy-makers, leading to the political determination of the EC’s administered protection, with the outcome being that protection is geared towards domestic producer interests seeking relief from import competition. This study offers a unique perspective because it locates the analysis of EC trade protection within the wider framework of EC decision-making processes.
Political Business Cycles and Expenditure Policies in Developing Countries
The paper studies empirically fiscal policies around elections in 35 developing countries. It finds that governments try to improve their reelection prospects with the help of expansionary expenditure policies. Rising fiscal deficits before elections are followed by fiscal consolidation afterwards. These cycles can be found particularly in countries which are less trade-oriented or which pursue fixed exchange rate policies. Certain IMF-supported programs (SAF/ESAF and EFF arrangements) contribute to fiscal stabilization, but they do not appear to affect the incidence of fiscal cycles. The paper concludes that policy advice and macroeconomic projections should not overlook election constraints, and political feasibility of reforms should be strengthened particularly before elections.
