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Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries
Serven examines empirically the link between real exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries using a large cross country-time series data set. He builds a GARCH-based measure of real exchange rate volatility and finds that it has a strong negative impact on investment, after controlling for other standard investment determinants and taking into account their potential endogeneity. The impact of uncertainty is not uniform, however. There is some evidence of threshold effects, so that uncertainty only matters when it exceeds some critical level. In addition, the negative impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on investment is significantly larger in economies that are highly open and in those with less developed financial systems.
Terms-of-trade Shocks and Optimal Investment
February 1995 Conventional analyses of the effect of terms-of-trade shocks provide a misleading view of their impact on investment and the current account, because capital goods imports are excluded from the analytical framework -- an exclusion both arbitrary and unrealistic. Conventional analyses of the effect of terms-of-trade shocks provide a misleading view of their impact on investment and the current account, says Serven, because capital goods imports are excluded from the analytical framework. He argues that such an exclusion is both arbitrary and unrealistic. Serven reexamines the consequences of permanent and transitory changes in the terms of trade in a rational-expectations model ...
The Economics of Saving and Growth
A look at major research and policy issues surrounding saving across the world, first published in 1999.
Macroeconomic Stability in Developing Countries
"In the 1990s macroeconomic policies improved in a majority of developing countries, but the growth dividend from such improvement fell short of expectations, and a policy agenda focused on stability turned out to be associated with a multiplicity of financial crises. Montiel and Serven take a retrospective look at the content and implementation of the macroeconomic reform agenda of the 1990s. They review the progress achieved with fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policies across the developing world, and the effectiveness of the changing policy framework in promoting stability and growth. The main lesson is that slow growth and frequent crises resulted, more often than not, from shortcomings in the reform agenda of the 1990s. These shortcomings essentially concern the depth and breadth of the macroeconomic reform agenda, its attention to macroeconomic vulnerabilities, and the complementary reforms outside the macroeconomic sphere"--Abstract.
Anticipated Real Exchange-rate Changes and the Dynamics of Investment
Unanticipated changes in the real exchange rate affect investment through their impact on the desired capital stock, whose direction depends on a number of factors and is in general ambiguous. In contrast, anticipated changes can also have an important effect on the optimal timing of investment, in a direction that depends on the financial openness of the economy and on the important content of capital goods. This issue is explored using a simple macroeconomic model.
The Limits of Stabilization
Over the 1980s and 1990s, most Latin American countries witnessed a retrenchment of the public sector away from infrastructure provision and an opening up of infrastructure activities to the private sector. This book analyzes the consequences of these policy changes from two perspectives. First, it reviews in a comparative framework the major trends in infrastructure provision in Latin America over the last two decades. Second, it evaluates the implication of these trends for economic growth and public deficits in the region. The book shows that in most countries private participation did not fully offset the public sector retreat. The result was a slowdown in infrastructure accumulation, which entailed a significant growth cost and weakened the intended impact of the infrastructure spending cuts on public sector insolvency.
Business Regulation and Economic Performance
The Schumpeterian process of 'creative destruction' is an essential ingredient of a dynamic economy. In many countries around the world, however, this process is weakened by pervasive regulation of product and factor markets. This book documents the regulatory obstacles faced by firms, particularly in developing countries, and assesses their implications for firm renewal and macroeconomic performance. Combining a variety of methodological approaches--analytical and empirical, micro and macroeconomic, single- and cross-country-- the book provides evidence that streamlining the regulatory framework would have a significant social pay-off, particularly in developing countries that are also burd...
