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Weathering the Storm So Far
This paper examines the impact of the 2003-05 oil price increase on the balance of payments positions and IMF financing needs of low-income country oil importers. It finds that stronger exports reflecting favorable global conditions, a compression of oil import volumes due to the pass-through of world prices to domestic consumers, and a large increase in capital inflows helped low-income countries cope with the oil price shock. Preliminary data suggest that reductions in oil import volumes have not harmed growth. While fiscal balances generally improved, quasi-fiscal liabilities may be building. Lower demand for IMF assistance may reflect broader trends, but further oil price increases could put pressure on additional countries in 2006 and beyond.
The Rise and Fall of the Pyramid Schemes in Albania
What lessons can be drawn from the unprecedented growth and spectacular collapse of financial pyramid schemes in Albania? This paper discusses the origins of the pyramid schemes and the way the authorities handled them. It also analyzes the economic effects of the pyramid schemes, concluding that despite the descent into anarchy triggered by the schemes’ collapse their direct effects on the economy are difficult to specify and appear to have been limited. Finally, the paper argues that prevention of pyramid schemes is better than cure, and that governments and international financial institutions should be vigilant in clamping down on frauds.
Economic Policies and Unemployment Dynamics in Europe
This book, edited by S.G.B. Henry and Dennis J. Snower, examines the high unemployment that has plagued five European countries- France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom- for more than a decade. Its methodology focuses on the mechanisms that prevent employers and employees from adjusting promptly to changing market opportunities. Chief among these mechanisms are outdated economic structures, the power of labor unions, rising nonwage labor costs, and the disparity between unemployed workers and available jobs. Although cross-country differences indicate that there is no common cause for joblessness in Europe, the book discusses a unique characteristic of the European labor market- that unemployment not only rises during recessions, but does not fall when economic weaknesses are overcome.
Reducing Inflation
Inflation in Albania fell rapidly once comprehensive stabilization policies and market-oriented reforms were launched, in contrast to other transition economies, where price liberalization was generally followed by persistently high inflation. The early reduction of underlying inflation is confirmed by trimmed mean estimates of core inflation, which use a central portion of the commodity-wise inflation distribution. This also demonstrates the usefulness of estimating core inflation for transition economies. The early success in curbing inflation is attributed to the extremely broad scope of initial price liberalization coupled with key supporting measures. It also gives hope for early recovery from Albania’s 1997 economic crisis.
How to Measure the Fiscal Deficit
Fiscal policy seeks to equilibrate the public sector's financing needs with the private sector's demand for investment and a sustainable balance of payments. Correct measurement of the public sector's net use of resources is therefore an important prerequisite for managing the macroeconomy. This volume, edited by Mario I. Blejer and Adrienne Cheasty, is organized around four issues: the adequacy of summary measures of the fiscal deficit, conventional and adjusted deficits, coverage (size) of the public sector, and the public sector's intertemporal budget constraint.
Assessing Country Risk
Assessing country risk is a core component of surveillance at the IMF. It is conducted through a comprehensive architecture, covering both bilateral and multilateral dimensions. This note describes some of the approaches used internally by Fund staff to examine a wide array of systemic risks across advanced, emerging, and low-income economies. It provides a high-level view of the theory and methodologies employed, with an on-line companion guide providing more technical details of implementation. The guide will be updated as Fund staff’s methodologies for assessing country risk continue to evolve with experience and feedback. While the results of these approaches are not published by the IMF for market sensitivity reasons, they inform risk assessments featured in bilateral surveillance as well as in the IMF’s flagship publications on global surveillance.
The IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise - Design and Methodological Toolkit
The Early Warning Exercise (EWE) draws together a combination of analytical techniques, practical experience, seasoned judgment and unique databases in order to assess the potential consequences associated with economic and financial tail risks. There are several key features of the exercise. First, the exercise aims to help prevent the occurrence of financial crises and to limit their potential damage, not to predict the timing of crises. Second, coverage is fairly comprehensive, including both advanced and emerging economies. Third, the EWE is based on rigorous analysis and cutting-edge techniques, but it uses a holistic approach, drawing also various other tools rather than relying on a single crisis model. Fourth, it combines empirical analysis with forward-looking thinking, based on inputs from key policymakers and academics, in-depth real-world knowledge from practitioners, and seasoned judgment from IMF experts. The primary purpose of the EWE is to identify as early as possible the buildup of underlying vulnerabilities that predispose a system to a crisis, so that corrective policies can be implemented and contingency plans put in place.
Is the PRGF Living Up to Expectations?
In late 1999 the IMF established the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) to integrate the objectives of poverty reduction and growth more fully into its operations for the poorest countries, and to base these operations on national poverty reduction strategies prepared by the country with broad participation of key stakeholders. A review of the program would be conducted two years later. This paper synthesizes two papers prepared by IMF staff: Review of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility: Issues and Options, and Review of the Key Features of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility: Staff Analyses. The paper draws on a broad range of internal and external views gathered between July 2001 and February 2002, including discussions at regional forums, meetings with donor government officials and representatives of civil society organizations, and comments of key officials in member countries with PRGF arrangements.
Sub-Saharan Africa
What is the impact on trade in sub-Saharan Africa of the recent rapid growth in China and other Asian countries, and the associated commodity price boom? This paper looks at how trading patterns (both destinations and composition) are changing in sub-Saharan Africa. Has the region managed to diversify the products it sells from commodities to manufactured goods? Has it expanded the range of countries to which it exports? And what about the import side? The time is ripe for sub-Saharan African countries to climb up the value chain of their commodity-based exports and/or achieve an export surge based on labor-intensive manufacturing.
Proposed Reforms to the Exogenous Shocks Facility
The review of the ESF is being accelerated in light of experience and worsening global economic conditions, in particular the surge in food and fuel prices. Despite having become effective in 2006, the ESF has yet to be used. Recent discussions with creditors, donors, potential users, and outside observers have highlighted a number of ways to enhance its effectiveness.
