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Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from Over 6,000 Estimates
This paper builds a novel database on the effects of macroprudential policy drawing from 58 empirical studies, comprising over 6,000 results on a wide range of instruments and outcome variables. It encompasses information on statistical significance, standardized magnitudes, and other characteristics of the estimates. Using meta-analysis techniques, the paper estimates average effects to find i) statistically significant effects on credit, but with considerable heterogeneity across instruments; ii) weaker and more imprecise effects on house prices; iii) quantitatively stronger effects in emerging markets and among studies using micro-level data; and iii) statistically significant evidence of leakages and spillovers. Other findings include relatively stronger impacts for tightening than loosening actions and negative effects on economic activity in the near term.
IMF Programs and Financial Flows to Offshore Centers
This paper examines whether IMF lending is associated with increases in outflows to offshore financial centers (OFCs), known for bank secrecy and asset protection, relative to other international destinations. Using quarterly data from the BIS on bilateral bank deposits, we are unable to detect any positive and statistically significant effect of IMF loan disbursements on bank deposits in OFCs. The result holds even after restricting the sample to the duration of the IMF program, where disbursement quarters and non-disbursement quarters should be subject to similar degrees of macroeconomic stress. It is also robust to using the scheduled tranche of disbursements as an instrument for actual disbursements. While the effects vary by the type and conditionality of the IMF program, as well as the amount of lending, none of the effects are found to be positive and statistically significant. We also estimate whether the recent surge in emergency lending, during the Covid-19 crisis, is associated with an increase in outflows to OFCs but find no evidence to support this.
Estimating Fiscal Multipliers with Correlated Heterogeneity
We estimate the average fiscal multiplier, allowing multipliers to be heterogeneous across countries or over time and correlated with the size of government spending. We demonstrate that this form of nonseparable unobserved heterogeneity is empirically relevant and address it by estimating a correlated random coefficient model. Using a panel dataset of 127 countries over the period 1994-2011, we show that not accounting for omitted heterogeneity produces a significant downward bias in conventional multiplier estimates. We rely on both crosssectional and time-series variation in spending shocks, exploiting the differential effects of oil price shocks on fuel subsidies, to identify the average government spending multiplier. Our estimates of the average multiplier range between 1.4 and 1.6.
Evolution of the Global Financial Network and Contagion: A New Approach
This paper studies the interconnectedness of the global financial system and its susceptibility to shocks. A novel multilayer network framework is applied to link debt and equity exposures across countries. Use of this approach—that examines simultaneously multiple channels of transmission and their important higher order effects—shows that ignoring the heterogeneity of financial exposures, and simply aggregating all claims, as often done in other studies, can underestimate the extent and effects of financial contagion.The structure of the global financial network has changed since the global financial crisis, impacted by European bank’s deleveraging and higher corporate debt issuance....
Energy Support for Firms in Europe: Best Practice Considerations and Recent Experience
The surge in energy prices due to Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine significantly increased costs for European firms, prompting governments to introduce a range of support schemes. Although energy prices had eased by early 2023, uncertainty around prices remains unusually large. Against this backdrop, this paper examines the case for government intervention and identifies best practices with a view to improving the design of existing energy support schemes, facilitating exit from those schemes, and preparing policymakers for a downside scenario in which energy prices flare up again. The paper argues that support should be limited in size, strictly temporary in nature, narrowly targeted, and accompanied by strong safeguards and conditionality, while preserving price signals as much as possible to encourage energy conservation. Finally, the paper reviews recent support schemes introduced by European governments in light of the identified best practice considerations.
India’s Approach to Open Banking: Some Implications for Financial Inclusion
We examine how the development of the digital infrastructure known as the “India Stack”—including an interoperable payments system, a universal digital ID, and other features—is delivering on the government’s objective to expand the provision of financial services. While each individual component of the India Stack is important, we argue that its key overarching feature is a foundational approach of providing extensive public infrastructures and standards that generates important synergies across the layers of the Stack. Until recently, a large share of India’s population lacked access to formal banking services and was largely reliant on cash for financial transactions. The expansion of mobile-based financial services that enable simple and convenient ways to save and conduct financial transactions has provided a novel alternative for expanding the financial net. The Stack’s improved digital infrastructures have already allowed for a rapid increase in the use of digital payments and the entry of a range of competitors including fintech and bigtech firms.
An Algorithmic Crystal Ball: Forecasts-based on Machine Learning
Forecasting macroeconomic variables is key to developing a view on a country's economic outlook. Most traditional forecasting models rely on fitting data to a pre-specified relationship between input and output variables, thereby assuming a specific functional and stochastic process underlying that process. We pursue a new approach to forecasting by employing a number of machine learning algorithms, a method that is data driven, and imposing limited restrictions on the nature of the true relationship between input and output variables. We apply the Elastic Net, SuperLearner, and Recurring Neural Network algorithms on macro data of seven, broadly representative, advanced and emerging economies and find that these algorithms can outperform traditional statistical models, thereby offering a relevant addition to the field of economic forecasting.
Digital Assets and the Law
This book delves into the intricacies of digital assets. With the increasing reliance on crypto and the potential adoption of digital currencies by central banks, our monetary system is at a critical point. The importance of taking the next step has become even more stringent, as evidenced by this systematic scientific reconstruction. Divided into five concentric parts, the book starts with a historical, technical and financial introduction to digital assets. It then explores the changing role of central banking and monetary economics in the upcoming era. Finally, it focuses on the broad legal issues arising from the new digital landscape, not shying away from exploring forward-thinking solutions and policies for the future. With the contributions of prominent international experts in the field, this collection supplies a transdisciplinary analysis based on the belief that complex phenomena can only be handled by complex solutions. This groundbreaking work aims to be more than just an academic treatise; it is a must-read for students, scholars, financial professionals, and all those who want to understand the emerging digital currency reality that many have yet to fully recognise.
Open Banking
"Consumers are growing more aware of the importance and value of the data they personally generate across industries and domains. Financial services is one such area where the link between one's personal data and its economic value is most clearly established, and consumers are beginning to agitate for and gain a measure of agency over their data. A study of the phenomenon of open banking provides a focused lens on the broader phenomena of data proliferation and data monetization. Thus, open banking and its related legal and economic issues along with policy ideas, such as consumer financial data rights, can serve as an interesting model for the broader policy discussion on general data righ...
The Real Effects of Mobile Money: Evidence from a Large-Scale Fintech Expansion
Mobile money services have rapidly expanded across emerging and developing economies and enabled new ways through which households and firms can conduct payments, save and send remittances. We explore how mobile money use can impact economic outcomes in India using granular data on transactions from Paytm, one of the largest mobile money service provider in India with over 400 million users. We exploit the period around the demonetization policy, which prompted a surge in mobile money adoption, and analyze how mobile money affects traditional risk-sharing arrangements. Our main finding is that mobile money use increases the resilience to shocks by dampening the impact of rainfall shocks on n...
