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International Spillovers of Forward Guidance Shocks
After 2007, countries that cut their policy interest rates close to zero turned, among other policies, to forward guidance. We estimate a two-country model of the U.S. and Canada to quantify how unexpected changes in U.S. forward guidance affected Canada. Expansionary U.S. forward guidance shocks, like conventional policy shocks, are beggar-thy-neighbor and depress Canadian output, but by twice as much as conventional shocks. We find that the effect of U.S. forward guidance shocks on Canadian output, unlike conventional policy shocks, depends on the state of U.S. demand and can be five times smaller when U.S. demand is weak.
Aging, Secular Stagnation and the Business Cycle
As of 2015, U.S. log output per capita was 12 percent below what its pre-2008 linear trend would predict. To understand why, I develop and estimate a model of the US with demographics, real and monetary shocks, and the occasionally binding ZLB on nominal rates. Demographic changes generate slow-moving trends in the real interest rate, employment, and productivity. I find that demographics alone can explain one-third of the gap between log output per capita and its linear trend in 2015. Demographics also lowered real rates, causing the ZLB to bind between 2009 and 2015, contributing to the slow recovery after the Great Recession.
Yeni ve Geleneksel Para Politikası 1. Cilt: Temel, Tasarım ve Teori
"New and Conventional Monetary Policies- Volume 1: Essence, Design and Theory": The book covers the subjects of economic policy, monetary policy, design of policy, conventional and unconventional policy tools and strategies, financial system, monetary transmission mechanism, financial crises, business cycle, cyclical cycle, money and interest in theory, inflation. İki ciltten oluşan çalışma, son yüzyılda hâkim olan para politikaları ile birlikte 2008 küresel krizi sonrasında dönüşen ve hâlen sınanmaya devam edilen politikaları kapsamlı olarak açıklamakta ve analiz etmektedir. Ekonominin değişen koşulları ve sunduğu deneyimlerden yararlanılarak, yorum ve analiz yapma...
The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
"Inflation, in which all prices and wages in an economy rise, is mysterious. If a war breaks out in the Middle East, and the price of oil goes up, the mechanism is no great mystery-supply and demand often work pretty visibly. But if you ask the grocer why the price of bread is higher, he or she will blame the wholesaler, who will blame the baker, who will blame the wheat supplier, and so on. Perhaps the ultimate cause is a government printing more money, but there is really no way to know this for certain but to sit down in an office with statistics, armed with some decent economic theory. But current economic theory doesn't really explain why we haven't seen inflation for so long, and more ...
Family, Ties and Care
Families international – the new milestone How may care be secured—particularly in ageing societies, how may families, relatives and friends support each other and live together beyond market reasons? How can social welfare be secured? How do different countries and different cultures solve the problems they may or may not, now or in days to come, share with other countries and cultures? Families, as is found in this publication by internationally renowned experts, are the base and well of society’s fortune in a humane paradigm. Furthermore, it is the very backbone of lifelong solidarity in inter-generational relations, and the very place where the readiness of taking on care and responsibility are experienced and learned. The publication’s underlying idea opens up two perspectives: on the one hand, differences and similarities in family life forms are chiselled out on the base of an international cooperation. Simultaneously, the international authors are called upon to express their ideas about their own country’s future more distinctly and clearly; thus, distinctions and similarities of the respective paths of development are rather easily perceived.
How to Assess Fiscal Implications of Demographic Shifts
Over the next few decades, the world will experience significant demographic shifts, with material fiscal implications. In many advanced and emerging market economies, aging populations will lead to higher spending on pensions and health care. Moreover, projected population dynamics will adversely affect growth and government revenues. Building on and extending a 2015 IMF Staff Discussion Note by Clements and others, this note presents a simple framework that can assist researchers in quantifying the effects of demographic changes resulting from population aging on government fiscal balances. It includes two country applications of the framework and an associated template. The note addresses several key questions: What are channels through which demographic changes could affect public finances? How can we quantify the fiscal impact of demographic changes? How can we tailor the assessment to country-specific circumstances?
Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy
Population aging is a global phenomenon that influences not only the industrialized countries of Asia and the West, but also many middle- and low- income countries that have experienced rapid fertility decline and achieved long life expectancies. This book explores how workers and consumers are responding to population aging and examines how economic growth, generational equity, trade and international capital flows are influenced by population aging. The contributors draw on the experience of the developing and industrialized worlds and on countries in Asia, North America, and Europe. They offer new evidence about micro-level responses of labor force participation, earnings, and savings to ...
The Taxation of Pensions
Theoretical and policy perspectives on the taxation of pension, viewed in an international context. Policy makers and academic researchers have been preoccupied in recent decades with the design of pension schemes and effective pension system reform. Relatively little attention has been given to the taxation of pensions and, more broadly, the provision of retirement income. In this book, experts from a range of countries explore the interconnection. Their contributions are especially timely, given recent demographic and political developments including population aging that lengthens the time between contribution payment and benefit receipt, the mobility of capital and labor brought about by...
Golden Aging
Societies across Europe and Central Asia are aging, but people are not necessarily living longer. This demographic trend-caused by a decrease in fertility rather than improved longevity-presents both challenges and opportunities for governments, the private sector, and individuals alike. Some of the challenges are well known. Output per capita becomes smaller if it is shared with an increasingly larger group of dependent older people. At a certain point, there may not be sufficient resources to maintain the living standards of this older group, especially if rising expenditures on health care, long-term care, and pensions must be financed through the contributions and taxes paid by ever-smal...
Globalization and Growth
The volume provides a comprehensive overview of the financial and economic crises of 2008-2009 and the economic and financial policy implications for growth in developing countries.
