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Macroeconomic Policy
This analysis of macroeconomic policy, originally published in 1989, argues that key government objectives, such as reduced inflation, decreased unemployment and an adequate level of national saving can be achieved only by employing both monetary and fiscal policies, in conjunction with supply-side policies expressly designed to improve the workings of the labour market. Part 1 is a comparative analysis showing the effects of monetary and fiscal policy on the economy. Real-wage rigidity in the labour market is shown to have important consequences for the working of both types of policy, because it conditions the economy’s response to tax changes. Part 2 presents an econometric model which combines consistent stock-flow accounts with a full range of expectational effects. Part 3 presents an innovative technique for solving rational expectations models with the need for arbitary terminal conditions.
Reconciliation of National Income and Expenditure
This book was first published in 1995. The problem of disparities between different estimates of GDP is well known and widely discussed. Here, the authors describe a method for examining the discrepancies using a technique allocating them with reference to data reliability. The method enhances the reliability of the underlying data and leads to maximum-likelihood estimates. It is illustrated by application to the UK national accounts for the period 1920-1990. The book includes a full set of estimates for this period, including runs of industrial data for the period 1948-1990, which are longer than those available from any other source. The statistical technique allows estimates of standard errors of the data to be calculated and verified; these are presented both for data in levels and for changes in variables over 1-, 2- and 5-year periods.
Appointment of Dr Martin Weale to the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England
The Committee follows previous practice in using the criteria of professional competence and personal independence against which to consider appointees to the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. The Committee is satisfied that Dr Martin Weale fulfils the two criteria and welcomes his appointment.
House of Commons - Treasury Committee: Re-Appointment of Dr Martin Weale to the Monetary Policy Committee: Volume II - HC 313-II
Report number misprinted as 5th report. Written evidence can be found on the Committee's website at www.parliament.uk/treascom
The 2006 Budget
2006 Budget : Fourth report of session 2005-06, Vol. 2: Oral and written Evidence
House of Commons - Treasury Committee: Re-Appointment of Dr Martin Weale to the Monetary Policy Committee - HC 313-I
Volume 2: Oral evidence. Written evidence can be found on the Committee's website at www.parliament.uk/treascom
The Will of the People
Democracies today are in the grip of a myth: the myth of the will of the people. Populist movements use the idea to challenge elected representatives. Politicians, content to invoke the will of the people, fail in their duty to make responsible and accountable decisions. And public contest over political choices is stifled by fears that opposing the will of the people will be perceived as elitist. In this book Albert Weale dissects the idea of the will of the people, showing that it relies on a mythical view of participatory democracy. As soon as a choice between more than two simple alternatives is involved, there is often no clear answer to the question of what a majority favours. Moreover, because governments have to interpret the results of referendums, the will of the people becomes a means for strengthening executive control – the exact opposite of what appealing to the people’s will seemed to imply. Weale argues that it’s time to dispense with the myth of the will of the people. A flourishing democracy requires an open society in which choices can be challenged, parliaments strengthened and populist leaders called to account.
The 2008 Budget
This report examines the forecasts and measures contained in the 2008 Budget (HC 455, session 2007-08, ISBN 9780102953336). The Treasury's lower forecasts for economic growth in 2008 and 2009 are above the average of independent forecasters, suggesting that the Treasury may have given insufficient weight to the risks of continued financial market turbulence and that some of the UK economy's characteristics that have proven beneficial in past crises (rapidly rising residential property prices, close links with the US and an increasing reliance on the financial services industry, for example) might prove to be conduits through which the current problems in global financial markets are transmit...
The Economics of Public Spending
The Economics of Public Spending investigates the extent of government involvement in the economy, details its rational, and traces its historical record. The book unites articles previously published in Fiscal Studies, each one addressing a different area of expenditure and written by an economist specializing in that field. They describe both the data on public expenditure and the theory relevant to understanding the policy issues. A new introduction investigates the overall role of the public sector and discusses the general theory of public expenditure. In providing a detailed analysis of public expenditure, the book makes an important contribution to the economics literature. There are no other texts with this breadth of coverage or depth of analysis. Insights are provided into both the policy issues, cross-country comparisons of expenditure, and alternative approaches to economic analysis. The chapters apply the tools of orthodox public finance, public choice, modern public economics, and game theory to reach a range of policy proposals and conclusions. These demonstrate the range and potential of economic analysis when applied to these important issues.
Pre-budget Report 2009
This report acknowledges that deciding the right time for fiscal consolidation requires making a fine judgement about the resilience of the recovery. It emphasises that a plan to restore the health of the public finances must deal with the structural deficit. While the Treasury aims to cut the deficit from 9% of GDP to 3.6% of GDP in four years, the expert witnesses who examined it all criticised the document for not providing enough information about how this will be achieved. Future Budgets and PBRs should attempt to quantify the downside risks around the structural deficit forecast. There will be uncertainty in these figures, but they are produced as part of the Spending Review process so...
