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Off the Books
Developing countries face massive infrastructure needs, but public spending on infrastructure is inadequate, and public investment has been declining in recent years. Rising debt levels and tightening fiscal and monetary conditions are putting further pressure on the funds available for infrastructure, heightening the importance of increasing the efficiency of infrastructure spending. Off the Books: Understanding and Mitigating the Fiscal Risks of Infrastructure shows that however governments deliver infrastructure—through direct public provision, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), or public-private partnerships (PPPs), the risk of fiscal surprises is high in both good times and bad. As a res...
Moving Forward
The erosion of its competitiveness is raising concerns about the sustainability of Bangladesh's growth model based on exports of ready-made garments. To safeguard its comparative advantage in ready-made garments and diversify its exports basket, Bangladesh needs to increase its competitiveness. Improving logistics performance is an important lever with which to do so. Moving Forward: Connectivity and Logistics to Sustain Bangladesh's Success presents a comprehensive assessment of logistics performance and its main determinants. It analyzes freight demand at a spatially disaggregated level, quantifies logistics costs, including the costs of externalities, looks at the factors that determine t...
Investing in Infrastructure
Sri Lanka achieved middle-income-country status in January 2010, on the strenght of of the economic growth fueled by the liberalization policy introduced in the late 1970s and pursued albeit unevenly in the following years. To continue growing, however, Sri Lanka needs to pay attention to its much neglected infrastructure. Accordingly, this report, aims to provide policy makers in Sri Lanka with a sound analytical basis for prioritizing investments and designing policy interventions that result in the mobilization of funds and their effective use for future development of Sri Lanka’s infrastructure, and also to improve understanding of the infrastructure sectors in Sri Lanka, including the...
Port Development and Competition in East and Southern Africa
Port Development and Competition in East and Southern Africa analyzes the 15 main ports in East and Southern Africa (ESA) to assess whether their proposed capacity enhancements are justified by current and projected demand; whether the current port management approaches sufficiently address not only the maritime capacity needs but also other impediments to port efficiency; and what the expected hierarchy of ports in the region will be in the future. The analysis confirms the need to increase maritime capacity, as the overall container demand in the ports in scope is predicted to begin exceeding total current capacity by between 2025 and 2030, while gaps in terms of dry and liquid bulk handli...
Precautionary Savings in a Small Open Economy Revisited
A common assumption in standard economic models is that agents are risk-averse and prudent, and it is often argued that prudence is necessary to generate precautionary savings. This paper shows that prudence is not necessary to generate precautionary savings in small open economy models with more than two periods. A new class of preferences, which enables the isolation of the effect of risk aversion on precautionary savings, is introduced. The effects of changes in risk aversion, interest rates, and persistence and volatility of shocks on average asset holdings are qualitatively identical to the ones observed for standard constant-elasticity-of-substitution preferences. These results show that the almost universal assertion in the literature - that only prudent consumers can generate positive levels of precautionary savings - is simply incorrect.
The Eastern Caribbean Currency Union
This paper studies the nature of the shocks affecting the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU), and examines whether a hypothetical Eastern Caribbean fiscal insurance mechanism could insure member countries of the union against asymmetric national income shocks. The empirical results suggest that a one dollar reduction in an ECCU member country's per capita personal income could trigger, through reduced income taxes and increased transfers, flows equivalent to about 7 percent of the initial income shock. Each member of the currency union could benefit as well, although the extent of shock mitigation differs across individual countries.
Human-Centred Economics
This open access book examines the chronic underperformance of economies with respect to inclusion, sustainability and resilience. It finds that the standard liberal economic growth and development model has evolved over the past century in a fundamentally unbalanced manner that underemphasizes the crucial role of institutions – legal norms, policy incentives and public administrative capacities – in translating market-based growth in the production of goods and services into broad and sustainable gains in social welfare at the household level. Correcting this imbalance of emphasis in economic theory and policy between markets and institutions, production and distribution, and national i...
The US–China Rift and Its Impact on Globalisation
Today, globalisation has entered a critical phase of slowdown. The asymmetrical US-China relationship that has been the fundamental axis up to now has entered into crisis. The financial imperialism of the dollar proves to be increasingly burdensome and destabilizing. The rise of capitalist China is questioning US imperialist levy. This book offers a comprehensive analysis of the looming confrontation, while identifying potential points of no return in the intertwined dynamics of the world market, geopolitical configurations, and class relationships. Neither contender can give up the game. Will there be a de-globalisation? Is a multipolar order realistic? Are we facing a Chinese hegemonic challenge or rather first signs that hint at the potential for systemic disintegration?
Accidental Conflict
The misguided forces driving conflict escalation between America and China, and the path to a new relationship “A timely, fluid, readable assessment of a testy and rapidly changing global relationship.”—Kirkus Reviews (starred review) In the short span of four years, America and China have entered a trade war, a tech war, and a new Cold War. This conflict between the world’s two most powerful nations wouldn’t have happened were it not for an unnecessary clash of false narratives. America falsely blames its trade and technology threats on China yet overlooks its shaky saving foundation. China falsely blames its growth challenges on America’s alleged containment of market-based soc...
Developing China's Ports
Many countries in Africa and Asia have coastlines that present opportunities for them to become gateways for trade between the hinterlands and global trading routes. However, policy makers struggle to translate this potential into engines of economic development and social transformation. In the past 40 years, China has taken advantage of its strategic geographical location and its status as one of the world’s top manufacturing regions. From a very low position on almost all metrics, today China has become home to more than half of the world’s top 50 ports. The rapid development of China’s ports was critical for the country’s remarkable economic growth. What China achieved can be inf...
