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Comfort in Floating: Taking Stock of Twenty Years of Freely-Floating Exchange Rate in Chile
Chile offers an example of a country that has overcome the fear of floating by reducing balance sheet mismatches, enhancing financial market development, as well as improving monetary, fiscal, and political institutions, and strengthening policy credibility. Under the floating regime, Chile’s economic adjustment to external shocks appears significantly improved, and its exchange rate pass-through has substantially declined. Our results reinforce the case that moving to a clear and credible floating regime can be associated with a reduction in the fear of floating via economic transformation (like smaller balance sheet mismatches, a larger hedging market, and a lower exchange rate pass-through).
State-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through
We estimate how the rate of pass-through from the exchange rate to domestic prices varies across states of the economy and depending on the shocks that drive fluctuations in the exchange rate. We confirm several results from the literature and uncover new facts. Drawing on the experience of a large sample of advanced and emerging market economies over the past 30 years, we document that exchange rate pass-through significantly larger during periods of high inflation and elevated uncertainty. Using a novel identification strategy, we also show that pass-through is higher when exchange rate fluctuations are driven by U.S. monetary policy.
Economía 2010
Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association, Fall 2010 Contents: Editors' Summary Reforming Pensions: Lessons from Economic Theory and Some Policy DirectionsBy Nicholas Barr and Peter Diamond Containing Systemic Risk: Paradigm-Based Perspectives on Regulatory ReformBy Augusto De la Torre and Alain Ize Labor Market Rigidities and Informality in ColombiaBy Camilo Mondragón-Vélez, Ximena Peña, and Daniel Wills Communicational Bias in Monetary Policy: Can Words Forecast Deeds?By Pablo Pincheira and Mauricio Calani
Economía: Fall 2010
Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association, Fall 2010 Contents: • Editors' Summary • Reforming Pensions: Lessons from Economic Theory and Some Policy Directions By Nicholas Barr and Peter Diamond • Containing Systemic Risk: Paradigm-Based Perspectives on Regulatory Reform By Augusto De la Torre and Alain Ize • Labor Market Rigidities and Informality in Colombia By Camilo Mondragón-Vélez, Ximena Peña, and Daniel Wills • Communicational Bias in Monetary Policy: Can Words Forecast Deeds? By Pablo Pincheira and Mauricio Calani
Handbook of Financial Integration
This comprehensive Handbook deftly examines key aspects of financial integration, providing an overview of contemporary research and new perspectives. Employing state of the art econometric methods to obtain new empirical evidence, it will be critical for designing optimal policies, and appropriate investment and risk management strategies.
The Economics of Natural Resources in Latin America
Revenues from commodities are extremely important for Latin America and the Caribbean, yet there is very little literature on the structure of these industries and on the various ways in which the state obtains commodity revenues. This book aims to understand the trade-off between the degree of taxation overall, the profitability of the relevant industry and the amount of investment and subsequent production in the region, as well as the relevance of institutions in the performance of the sector. This volume focuses on economic efficiency: where Latin America stands in terms of the current tax system for the extractive sector; how policies have changed in this regard; and how policies may be...
Uncovering CIP Deviations in Emerging Markets: Distinctions, Determinants and Disconnect
We provide a systematic empirical treatment of short-term Covered Interest Parity (CIP) deviations for a large set of emerging market (EM) currencies. EM CIP deviations have much larger volatilities than most G10 currencies and move in an opposite direction during global risk-off episodes. While off-shore EM CIP deviations are sensitive to changes in FX dealers’ risk-bearing capacities and global risk aversion, on-shore EM CIP deviations are largely unresponsive in segmented FX markets. Moreover, the sensitivity of offshore EM CIP deviations to global risk factors for currencies with segmented FX markets is stronger compared to their counterparts with integrated FX markets. We find weak evidence of country default risk affecting EM CIP deviations after accounting for global factors.
Inflation Expectations and the Supply Chain
We show that firms rely on price changes observed along their supply chain to form expectations about aggregate inflation, and that these expectations have a complete pass-through to sales prices. Leveraging a unique dataset on Chilean firms merging expectation surveys and records from the VAT and customs registries, we document that changes in prices at which firms purchase inputs inform their forecasts of the economy’s inflation. This is the case even if changes in input costs do not determine the inflation outcome. These findings reject the full-information rational-expectations hypothesis and are consistent with firms’ disagreement about future inflation and inattention to macroeconomic news, which we document for Chile. Our results from a firm-level Phillips’ curve estimation suggest that firms’ beliefs about inflation are a key determinant for their price-setting decisions. Therefore, we argue that the channel we highlight in this paper has the potential to lead to dispersion in inflation expectations, price dispersion, and weaken the expectation channel of policies.
The Oxford Handbook of Latin American Economics
A comprehensive overview of the key factors affecting the development of Latin American economies that examines long-term growth performance, macroeconomic issues, Latin American economies in the global context, technological and agricultural policies, and the evolution of labour markets, the education sector, and social security programmes.
