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Personal Pension Plans and Stock Market Volatility
Personal pension plans transfer investment risk to participating workers and expose them to the volatility of financial returns. Simple financial strategies lower the volatility of replacement rates but at a significant cost in terms of lower replacement rates. The purchase of valuable annuities reduces the dispersion of replacement rates across generations without lowering their level.
Public-Private Partnerships, Government Guarantees, and Fiscal Risk
Public-private partnerships (PPPs) refer to arrangements under which the private sector supplies infrastructure assets and infrastructure-based services that traditionally have been provided by the government. PPPs are used for a wide range of economic and social infrastructure projects, but they are used mainly to build and operate roads, bridges and tunnels, light rail networks, airports and air traffic control systems, prisons, water and sanitation plants, hospitals, schools, and public buildings. PPPs offer benefits similar to those offered by privatization, which is the sale of government-owned enterprises or assets. By the late 1990s, when privatization was losing much of its earlier m...
Nonrenewable Resources
This paper examines whether there is a case for temporary but persistent fiscal surpluses in economies heavily endowed with nonrenewable resources. It finds that there generally is a case. Fiscal surpluses permit replacing nonfinancial wealth with financial assets, the return on which increases public consumption possibilities of future generations for a constant across-generation tax burden. The more biased are a government’s preferences toward present generations, the lower will be the initial surpluses; the larger the finite endowment, the larger the initial surpluses. In a more general framework, including public investment, the proposition could be rephrased by replacing surpluses with stronger initial fiscal positions.
Angola
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that lower oil prices since mid-2014 have placed the Angolan economy under stress. The authorities initially reacted to the oil price shock with significant fiscal tightening and exchange rate adjustments coupled with foreign exchange quantitative restrictions. The policy mix in the run-up to the August 2017 elections—fiscal expansion and pegged exchange rate—led to a further erosion of fiscal and external buffers. President João Lourenço has focused attention on improving governance and restoring macroeconomic stability. The government’s macroeconomic stabilization program envisages: upfront fiscal consolidation; greater exchange rate flexibility; reducing the public debt-to-GDP ratio to 60 percent over the medium term; improving the public debt profile; and settling domestic payments arrears.
Who Will Pay? Coping with Aging Societies, Climate Change, and Other Long-Term Fiscal Challenges
Aging populations. Weather shocks. Scarce water. Globalization. Security threats. Policymakers today confront a number of developments that threaten to burden public budgets for decades to come, or bankrupt some entirely. This book argues that governments need to make policy changes now to take account of the potential fiscal consequences of these developments. After describing how, if at all, analysts, national governments, and international organizations currently address these long-term issues, the book stresses the vital need for a multipronged approach, involving strengthened analyses, greater attention to long-term issues and risk factors in budgeting, and institutional reforms that address the myopic biases of politicians and the public.
Cabo Verde
This 2018 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic recovery in Cabo Verde is gaining momentum, reflecting a more favorable external environment and the payoff of ongoing economic reforms. In 2017, the economy is estimated to have expanded by 4 percent supported by the double digit-growth in tourist arrivals, the recovery in credit to the private sector, and stronger consumer and business confidence. These factors are expected to boost growth further to 4.3 percent in 2018. Over the medium term, real GDP growth is projected to stabilize at about 4 percent. Financial stability indicators have improved but the level of nonperforming loans remains elevated.
El Niño Or El Peso?
In terms of its impact on poverty, the recent economic crisis in the Philippines was more of an El Niño phenomenon than a financial crisis.
World Economic Outlook, October 2014
The pace of recovery has disappointed in recent years, and downside risks have increased, including from heightened geopolitical tensions. These increased risks make it a priority to raise actual and potential growth. In a number of economies, an increase in public infrastructure investment can also provide support to demand and help boost potential output. And in advanced economies as well as emerging and developing economies there is a general, urgent need for structural reforms to strengthen growth potential or make growth more sustainable. The four individual chapters examine the overall global outlook, the prospects for individual countries and regions, the benefits of increased public infrastructure investment in terms of raising output, and the extent to which global imbalances have narrowed significantly since their peak in 2006.
South Africa: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for South Africa
South Africa’s subpar economic performance over the last decade has weakened its macroeconomic fundamentals and social indicators. In response to formidable COVID-19-related challenges, government expenditure surged, and, amid declining revenue, the budget deficit widened significantly. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and the Prudential Authority (PA) preserved adequate liquidity conditions and financial-sector stability. The cyclical recovery from the deep contraction has been faster than expected but its strength is unlikely to be sustained. Benign global market conditions have supported asset performance, although term premia are elevated due to fiscal risks. Bank soundness indicators remain solid, but a deepening bank-sovereign nexus raises some concerns.
Regional Economic Outlook, November 2006, Western Hemisphere
This Western Hemisphere Regional Economic Outlook covers the United States, Canada, Latin America, and the Caribbean. The report reviews recent economic developments, discusses the economic outlook, and outlines risks and challenges ahead.
