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Bayesian Population Analysis Using WinBUGS
Bayesian statistics has exploded into biology and its sub-disciplines, such as ecology, over the past decade. The free software program WinBUGS, and its open-source sister OpenBugs, is currently the only flexible and general-purpose program available with which the average ecologist can conduct standard and non-standard Bayesian statistics. Comprehensive and richly commented examples illustrate a wide range of models that are most relevant to the research of a modern population ecologist All WinBUGS/OpenBUGS analyses are completely integrated in software R Includes complete documentation of all R and WinBUGS code required to conduct analyses and shows all the necessary steps from having the data in a text file out of Excel to interpreting and processing the output from WinBUGS in R
Integrated Population Models
Integrated Population Models: Theory and Ecological Applications with R and JAGS is the first book on integrated population models, which constitute a powerful framework for combining multiple data sets from the population and the individual levels to estimate demographic parameters, and population size and trends. These models identify drivers of population dynamics and forecast the composition and trajectory of a population. Written by two population ecologists with expertise on integrated population modeling, this book provides a comprehensive synthesis of the relevant theory of integrated population models with an extensive overview of practical applications, using Bayesian methods by me...
Molded Optics
While several available texts discuss molded plastic optics, none provide information on all classes of molded optics. Filling this gap, Molded Optics: Design and Manufacture presents detailed descriptions of molded plastic, glass, and infrared optics. Since an understanding of the manufacturing process is necessary to develop cost-effective, produ
Forbidden Fruit
Could World War I have been averted if Franz Ferdinand and his wife hadn't been murdered by Serbian nationalists in 1914? What if Ronald Reagan had been killed by Hinckley's bullet? Would the Cold War have ended as it did? In Forbidden Fruit, Richard Ned Lebow develops protocols for conducting robust counterfactual thought experiments and uses them to probe the causes and contingency of transformative international developments like World War I and the end of the Cold War. He uses experiments, surveys, and a short story to explore why policymakers, historians, and international relations scholars are so resistant to the contingency and indeterminism inherent in open-ended, nonlinear systems. Most controversially, Lebow argues that the difference between counterfactual and so-called factual arguments is misleading, as both can be evidence-rich and logically persuasive. A must-read for social scientists, Forbidden Fruit also examines the binary between fact and fiction and the use of counterfactuals in fictional works like Philip Roth's The Plot Against America to understand complex causation and its implications for who we are and what we think makes the social world work.
Passerine Migration
Most birds cannot cover the distance between their breeding and winter quarters in one hop. They have to make multiple flights alternated with stopovers. Which factors govern the birds’ decisions to stop, to stop for how long, when to resume flight? What is better – to accumulate much fuel and to make long flights for many hundreds of kilometres, or to travel in small steps? Is it necessary to find habitats similar to the breeding ones or other habitats would do? Are long migratory flights indeed so costly energetically as usually assumed? This monograph summarizes our current knowledge on the ecology of songbird migrants during migratory stopovers and on their behaviour.
Innovations in the Treatment of Substance Addiction
Emerging approaches to treating addictions and minimizing relapse are spotlighted in this idea-packed volume, as alternatives or adjuncts to standard psychological and pharmacological therapies. Its biopsychosocial perspective delves into the causes and processes of chemical dependence, and the clinical characteristics it shares with other addictions (e.g., food, sex, gambling, online activities), to identify client needs that substance abuse may fulfill. Accordingly, the diverse modalities featured here address substance addiction on multiple levels, offering clients physical or mental stimulation and/or emotional relief as well as affording different degrees of autonomy. Methods can be mix...
Spies, Lies, and Algorithms
A riveting account of espionage for the digital age, from one of America’s leading intelligence experts Spying has never been more ubiquitous—or less understood. The world is drowning in spy movies, TV shows, and novels, but universities offer more courses on rock and roll than on the CIA and there are more congressional experts on powdered milk than espionage. This crisis in intelligence education is distorting public opinion, fueling conspiracy theories, and hurting intelligence policy. In Spies, Lies, and Algorithms, Amy Zegart separates fact from fiction as she offers an engaging and enlightening account of the past, present, and future of American espionage as it faces a revolution ...
Cyber Commerce Reframing
The goal of this book is to create awareness for a change in mind-set that we will all have to face and go through. The necessity for this new mind set is being driven by the situation that a completely new business world, a new reality, is being created at the point where the phenomenon commonly referred to as the "new economy" converges with the well-known old economy. During the very late 1990s, this new reality was being driven by an almost incredible increase in yields in the financial markets, where conventional but value-driven and stable stocks such as Philip Morris, General Electric, or Bayer, did not attract as many investors as before - if we can call some of them investors at all...
