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Creating Futures
The future is open to us, to be written or created collectively. This powerful statement flies in the face of traditional notions of prediction and forecasting, but is central to the approach presented in this book. The author maintains that, with the right tools and attitudes, people can learn how to create futures. In this handbook for professionals, managers, planners, and entrepreneurs will discover an arsenal of effective futures-thinking techniques--from workshops to scenario-building software--that enhance the collective process. Readers will find effective ways to anticipate change, while avoiding cliched solutions and conventional thinking. Creating Futures provides powerful tools for business and political leaders facing uncertainty.
Long-range Futures Research
This highly readable study explains how complexity science provides an evolutionary model for the civil system, with a new world view that out-ranges United Nations reference scenarios to beyond 2150.
Future-focused Leadership
A forward-looking guide to helping leaders in education and other fields better prepare students for such challenges as globalization, demographic shifts, and advances in technology.
Uncertainty and Risk
This is a major, and deeply thoughtful, contribution to understanding uncertainty and risk. Our world and its unprecedented challenges need such ways of thinking! Much more than a set of contributions from different disciplines, this book leads you to explore your own way of perceiving your own area of work. An outstanding contribution that will stay on my shelves for many years. Dr Neil T. M. Hamilton, Director, WWF International Arctic Programme This collection of essays provides a unique and fascinating overview of perspectives on uncertainty and risk across a wide variety of disciplines. It is a valuable and accessible sourcebook for specialists and laypeople alike. Professor Renate Schu...
Integrating Soft Computing into Strategic Prospective Methods
This book discusses how to build optimization tools able to generate better future studies. It aims at showing how these tools can be used to develop an adaptive learning environment that can be used for decision making in the presence of uncertainties. The book starts with existing fuzzy techniques and multicriteria decision making approaches and shows how to combine them in more effective tools to model future events and take therefore better decisions. The first part of the book is dedicated to the theories behind fuzzy optimization and fuzzy cognitive map, while the second part presents new approaches developed by the authors with their practical application to trend impact analysis, scenario planning and strategic formulation. The book is aimed at two groups of readers, interested in linking the future studies with artificial intelligence. The first group includes social scientists seeking for improved methods for strategic prospective. The second group includes computer scientists and engineers seeking for new applications and current developments of Soft Computing methods for forecasting in social science, but not limited to this.
