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A toolkit for Assessing Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks in Advanced Economies
This paper presents a range of tools and indicators for analyzing fiscal vulnerabilities and risks for advanced economies. The analysis covers key short-, medium- and long-term dimensions. Short-term pressures are captured by assessing (i) gross funding needs, (ii) market perceptions of default risk, and (iii) stress dependence among sovereigns. Medium- and long-term pressures are summarized by (iv) medium- and long-term budgetary adjustment needs, (v) susceptibility of debt projections to growth and interest rate shocks, and (vi) stochastic risks to medium-term debt dynamics. Aiming to cover a wide range of advanced economies and minimize data lags, has also influenced the selection of empirical methods. Due to these features, they can, for example, help inform the joint IMF-FSB Early Warning Exercise (EWE) on the fiscal dimensions of economic risks.
Tax Avoidance in Sub-Saharan Africa’s Mining Sector
This paper aims to contribute to the international policy debate around profit shifting, tax avoidance and SSA’s revenue mobilization efforts in three ways. First, it examines the importance of mining, the role of multinational enterprises (MNEs), and mining revenue outcomes in SSA. Second, it assesses the magnitude of profit shifting in mining drawing on new macro level research, supplemented by case studies to illustrate the lived experience of tax avoidance in SSA mining. Third, the paper identifies tax policy reforms that could boost revenue mobilization in SSA.
Pricing of Sovereign Credit Risk
We investigate the pricing of sovereign credit risk over the period 2008-2010 for selected advanced economies by examining two widely-used indicators: sovereign credit default swap (CDS) and relative asset swap (RAS) spreads. Cointegration analysis suggests the existence of an imperfect market arbitrage relationship between the cash (RAS) and the derivatives (CDS) markets, with price discovery taking place in the latter. Likewise, panel regressions aimed at uncovering the fundamental drivers of the two indicators show that the CDS market, although less liquid, has provided a better signal for sovereign credit risk during the period of the recent financial crisis.
Reform Options for Mature Defined Benefit Pension Plans: The Case of the Netherlands
The Netherlands has been operating fully funded, defined benefit second pillar pension schemes that have consistently ranked high worldwide for delivering high replacement rates while featuring strong solidarity among members. Yet the long-term sustainability of the Dutch pension funds has been undermined in recent years by protracted low interest rates and unfavorable demographic developments, exacerbating controversies over intergenerational transfer mechanisms within the plans. This has prompted a national debate over ways to move toward more individualization while preserving financial security at retirement for all. This paper draws on this experience, illustrated by stress testing simulations and assessed vis-à-vis solutions implemented in peer countries, to discuss the main policy trade-offs associated with the reform of mature pension systems in advanced economies.
Republic of Madagascar
This paper presents 2019 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Madagascar and its Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement. Madagascar’s performance under its economic program supported by the ECF arrangement has been broadly satisfactory with solid growth, moderate single digit inflation, and a robust external position. As a fragile, low-income country, Madagascar continues to face risks associated with weak implementation capacity, potential fiscal slippages, social fragility in a context of widespread poverty, and vulnerability to exogenous shocks including to terms of trade and natural disasters. Going forward, a commitment to strong policies and an ambi...
Particle Physics: Ideas and Recent Developments
For more than 25 years the Standard Model of particle physics has withstood the confrontation with experimental results of increasing precision, but this does not imply that the Standard Model can answer all questions about the ultimate constituents of nature. This book presents a critical examination of the latest experimental results and confronts them with the predictions of the Standard Model. Besides discussions of accelerator results from LEP, HERA and the TEVATRON, attention is paid to the unresolved problems of neutrino oscillations, CP violation, dark matter and cosmology. New theoretical ideas are also analyzed in order to explore possible extensions of the standard model. Realistic plans for future accelerators are presented and their physics potential is discussed, paving the way for the next generation of particle physics experiments.
