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Private Savings and COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa
The paper reexamines the main private savings determinants in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), followed by an analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic impact on private savings in SSA and other country groupings. Using an unbalanced panel data from 1983−2021 for 31 SSA economies, the paper finds that real per capita economic growth remains a key historical determinant of private savings in the region. In contrast with other regions, private saving rates have not increased during COVID-19 in SSA. Instead, COVID-19 deaths in our estimations are significantly associated with a decline in private savings in SSA. Robustness checks and a descriptive analysis of household surveys during the pandemic corroborate those results.
Fiscal Stimulus Impact on Firms' Profitability During the Global Financial Crisis
Using financial statement data from the Thomson Reuter’s Worldscope database for 22,333 non-financial firms in 52 advanced and emerging economies, this paper examines how fiscal stimulus (i.e., changes in structural deficit) interacted with sectoral business cycle sensitivity affected corporate profitability during the recovery period of the global financial crisis (GFC). Using cross-sectional analyses, our findings indicate that corporate profitability improved significantly after the GFC fiscal stimulus, especially in manufacturing, utilities and retail sectors. Firm size and leverage are also found to be significant in explaining changes in corporate profitability.
Gabon
In response to a request from the Gabonese authorities, a mission from the Fiscal Affairs Department of the IMF visited Libreville to conduct an evaluation of public investment management, using the Public Investment Management Assessment methodology. The report highlights that enhancing the efficiency of public investment is essential, given Gabon’s current budget constraints. Improving public investment management (PIM) should help stem the declines in public investment efficiency in Gabon. In terms of infrastructure quality, public investment efficiency has fallen to half of the expected optimal level, compared to a 20 percent decline both worldwide and in Sub-Saharan Africa, as well as a 31 percent decline in member states of the Central African Economic and Monetary Union. The findings of the PIM assessment reveal structural deficiencies in planning procedures and institutional arrangements. Eight recommendations are put forward to enhance PIM efficiency in the short and medium terms, with three urgent steps needed to rationalize planning.
Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact
The paper uses survey data to analyze whether financial market expectations on government budget deficits changed in France, Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom during the period of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). Our findings indicate that accuracy of financial expert deficit forecasts increased in France. Convergence between the European Commission's and market experts’ deficit forecasts also increased in France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, particularly during the period after SGP’s reform in 2005. Yet, convergence between markets’ forecasts and those of the French, German, and Italian national fiscal authorities seems not to have increased significantly during the SGP.
The Slowdown in Global Trade: A Symptom of A Weak Recovery
Global trade growth has slowed since 2012 relative both to its strong historical performance and to overall economic growth. This paper aims to quantify the role of weak economic growth and changes in its decomposition in accounting for the slowdown in trade using a reduced form and a structural approach. Both analytical investigations suggest that the overall weakness in economic activity, particularly investment, has been the primary restraint on trade growth, accounting for over 80 percent of the decline in the growth of the volume of goods trade between 2012–16 and 2003–07. However, other factors are also weighing on trade in recent years, especially in emerging market and developing economies, as evidenced by the non-negligible role attributed to trade costs by the structural approach.
Gabon: Request for a Three-Year Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; Supplementary Information, and Statement by the Executive Director for Gabon
The Gabonese economy was gradually recovering from the 2014 oil price shock when it was hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. Decisive confinement measures have helped save lives, but the pandemic and the fall in oil prices have severely hit the economy, increasing unemployment and poverty. With a weak economy and increased COVID-19 related spending, the fiscal deficit has widened, with a sharp increase in public debt. Emergency financing from the IMF through the Rapid Financing Instrument (US$299.61 million) helped meet urgent balance of payment needs in 2020. Growth is expected to resume in 2021 but the pandemic has made the economic outlook very challenging and generated sizable financing needs over the medium term.
The Effects of Inflation on Public Finances
Does inflation help improve public finances? This paper documents the dynamic responses of fiscal variables to an inflation shock, using both quarterly and annual panel data for a broad set of economies. Inflation shocks are estimated to improve fiscal balances temporarily, as nominal revenues track inflation closely, while nominal primary expenditures take longer to catch up. Inflation spikes also lead to a persistent reduction in debt to GDP ratios, both due to the primary balance improvement and the nominal GDP denominator channel. However, debt only falls with inflation surprises—rises in inflation expectations do not improve debt dynamics, suggesting limits to debt debasement strategies. The results are robust to using various inflation measures and instrumental variables.
Gabon
Political risks appear to have subsided with the completion of legislative and local elections in October. The economy is slowly recovering, fiscal consolidation has continued, inflation has remained low, and the trade balance has improved. The recovery is expected to firm up in 2019 and the medium-term outlook is still promising, although risks remain mostly tilted to the downside.
Credit Supply and Productivity Growth
We study the impact of bank credit on firm productivity. We exploit a matched firm-bank database covering all the credit relationships of Italian corporations, together with a natural experiment, to measure idiosyncratic supply-side shocks to credit availability and to estimate a production model augmented with financial frictions. We find that a contraction in credit supply causes a reduction of firm TFP growth and also harms IT-adoption, innovation, exporting, and adoption of superior management practices, while a credit expansion has limited impact. Quantitatively, the credit contraction between 2007 and 2009 accounts for about a quarter of observed the decline in TFP.
Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.
