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Christ Connection
In The Christ Connection noted apologist Varghese (There Is a God, co-written with atheist-turned-Christian philosopher, Antony Flew) offers a comprehensive and compelling formulation of the monumental discovery that Jesus of Nazareth is God and man, Messiah and Savior. The book explores: · The pre-Christian religions – from native peoples to Egyptians and ancient Judaism – pointing the way to the Messiah to come · Jesus as a phenomenon unique in human history · The Christ connection as a rendezvous of the religions · Fifteen grounds that lead us to affirm Jesus as God and man and Savior · The foundations of the doctrine of the Trinity in human experience.
Borrowing Costs and The Role of Multilateral Development Banks: Evidence from Cross-Border Syndicated Bank Lending
Cross-border bank lending is a growing source of external finance in developing countries and could play a key role for infrastructure financing. This paper looks at the role of multilateral development banks (MDBs) on the terms of syndicated loan deals, focusing on loan pricing. The results show that MDBs' participation is associated with higher borrowing costs and longer maturities---signaling a greater willingness to finance high risk projects which may not be financed by the private sector---but it is also associated with lower spreads for riskier borrowers. Overall, our findings suggest that MDBs could crowd in private investment in developing countries through risk mitigation.
Corporate Sector Vulnerabilities and High Levels of Interest Rates
This paper provides a comprehensive overview of corporate sector vulnerabilities that have emerged post-pandemic. The main focus in on the financial stability implications from corporate sector vulnerabilities in a new environment of high interest rates. Although several central banks have recently started cutting interest rates, the expectation is that high interest rates, above pre-pandemic levels, are here to stay. It is then especially important to design and deploy appropriate policies that may prevent and mitigate risks from the corporate sector. The main findings of the paper are as follows. First, the paper finds that interest rate increases may transmit more strongly to the real eco...
Fisheries Review
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Capital Flows at Risk: Taming the Ebbs and Flows
The volatility of capital flows to emerging markets continues to pose challenges to policymakers. In this paper, we propose a new framework to answer critical policy questions: What policies and policy frameworks are most effective in dampening sharp capital flow movements in response to global shocks? What are the near- versus medium-term trade-offs of different policies? We tackle these questions using a quantile regression framework to predict the entire future probability distribution of capital flows to emerging markets, based on current domestic structural characteristics, policies, and global financial conditions. This new approach allows policymakers to quantify capital flows risks and evaluate policy tools to mitigate them, thus building the foundation of a risk management framework for capital flows.
Macroprudential Policy Effects
The global financial crisis (GFC) underscored the need for additional policy tools to safeguard financial stability and ultimately macroeconomic stability. Systemic financial vulnerabilities had developed under a seemingly tranquil macroeconomic surface of low inflation and small output gaps. This challenged the precrisis view that achieving these traditional policy targets was a sufficient condition for macroeconomic stability. Thus, new tools had to be deployed to target specific financial vulnerabilities and to build buffers to cushion adverse aggregate shocks, while allowing traditional policy levers, including monetary and microprudential policies to focus on their traditional roles. Ma...
A.B.C.'s of Behavioral Forensics
Get practical insights on the psychology of white-collar criminals—and how to outsmart them Understand how the psychologies of fraudsters and their victims interact as well as what makes auditors/investigators/regulators let down their guard. Learn about the psychology of fraud victims, including boards of directors and senior management, and what makes them want to believe fraudsters, and therefore making them particularly vulnerable to deception. Just as IT experts gave us computer forensics, we now have a uniquely qualified team immersed in psychology, sociology, psychiatry as well as accounting and auditing, introducing the emerging field of behavioral forensics to address the phenomen...
Rogue Waves: Climate Change and Firm Performance
Climate change is an existential threat to the global economy and financial markets. There is a large body of literature documenting potential macroeconomic consequences of climate change, but firm-level empirical research on how climate change affects the performance of firms remains scarce. This paper aims to close this gap by empirically investigating the impact of climate change vulnerability on corporate performance using a large panel dataset of more than 3.3 million nonfinancial firms from 24 developing countries over the period 1997–2019. We find that nonfinancial firms operating in countries with greater vulnerability to climate change tend to experience difficulty in access to debt financing even at higher interest rates, while being less productive and profitable relative to firms in countries with lower vulnerability to climate change. We confirm these findings with alternative measures of climate change vulnerability. Furthermore, partitioning the sample reveals that these effects are significantly greater for smaller firms, especially in high-risk sectors and countries and countries with weaker capacity to adapt to and mitigate the consequences of climate change.
International Financial Connection and Stock Return Comovement
This paper studies whether bilateral international financial connection data help predict bilateral stock return comovement. It is shown that, when the United States is chosen as the benchmark, a larger U.S. portfolio investment asset position on the destination economy predicts a stronger stock return comovement between them. For large economies such as the United States and Germany, the portfolio investment position is also the best predictor among other connection variables. The paper discusses with a simple general equilibrium portfolio model that the empirical pattern is consistent with the behavior of index investors who trade in response to risk-on/risk-off shocks.
The COVID-19 Impact on Corporate Leverage and Financial Fragility
We study the impact of the COVID-19 recession on capital structure of publicly listed U.S. firms. Our estimates suggest leverage (Net Debt/Asset) decreased by 5.3 percentage points from the pre-shock mean of 19.6 percent, while debt maturity increased moderately. This de-leveraging effect is stronger for firms exposed to significant rollover risk, while firms whose businesses were most vulnerable to social distancing did not reduce leverage. We rationalize our evidence through a structural model of firm value that shows lower expected growth rate and higher volatility of cash flows following COVID-19 reduced optimal levels of corporate leverage. Model-implied optimal leverage indicates firms which did not de-lever became over-leveraged. We find default probability deteriorates most in large, over-leveraged firms and those that were stressed pre-COVID. Additional stress tests predict value of these firms will be less than one standard deviation away from default if cash flows decline by 20 percent.
