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Deflation
Deflation can be costly and difficult to anticipate, and concerns of a generalized decline in prices in both industrial and emerging market economies have increased recently. This paper investigates the causes and consequences of deflation, the risk of deflation globally and in individual countries, and policy options. The authors discuss issues related to the measurement, determinants, and costs of deflation and examine previous episodes of deflation. They compute an index of deflation vulnerability, which they apply to the 35 largest industrial and emerging market economies. Finally, the paper offers several policy options for protecting against deflation and for coping with it should it strike.
Informal Funds Transfer Systems
Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, there has been increased public interest in informal funds transfer (IFT) systems. This paper examines the informal hawala system, an IFT system found predominantly in the Middle East and South Asia. The paper examines the historical and socioeconomic context within which the hawala has evolved, the operational features that make it susceptible to potential financial abuse, the fiscal and monetary implications for hawala-remitting and hawala-recipient countries, and current regulatory and supervisory responses.
Greater Monetary Policy Transparency for the G3
The experience of full-fledged inflation targeting (FFIT) countries is used here to shed light on the costs and benefits of greater monetary policy transparency for the G3. For the United States and the euro area, a hypothetical adoption of FFIT would incur a cost of less discretion while gaining the benefit of locking in a highly credible framework. The adoption of FFIT by Japan would create the risk of a further hit to credibility if policy was not able to end deflation. In practice, the G3 are already moving toward a new monetary regime that resembles FFIT in transparency, but not in accountability.
Gauging Risks for Deflation
This paper discusses deflation risks and policy options. The paper highlights that slumping collateral values have exacerbated the credit crunch, and monetary policy has lost effectiveness in stabilizing output. A model-based analysis for the G3 economies (United States, euro area, and Japan) also suggests that, on the assumption that the financial distress is gradually resolved, the most likely outcome is that the global economy will stay clear of sustained deflation. However, if financial sector problems are not remedied or further shocks add to current stresses, there is a significant probability of more negative deflationary outcomes, with a deeper and more prolonged recession. The chapt...
China’s Demography and its Implications
In coming decades, China will undergo a notable demographic transformation, with its old-age dependency ratio doubling to 24 percent by 2030 and rising even more precipitously thereafter. This paper uses the permanent income hypothesis to reassess national savings behavior, with greater prominence and more careful consideration given to the role played by changing demography. We use a forward-looking and dynamic approach that considers the entire population distribution. We find that this not only holds up well empirically but may also be superior to the static dependency ratios typically employed in the literature. Going further, we simulate global savings behavior based on our framework an...
Davranışsal İktisadın Politika Yapımına Etkisi
Nobel Ekonomi ödülünü alan profesörler Joseph E. Stiglitz, George Akerlof ve Michael Spence’nin (2001), Daniel Kahneman ve Vernon Smith’in (2002) ayrıca son olarak Richard Thaler’in (2017) davranışsal iktisat alanındaki çalışmaları, bunun yanısıra Obama’nın görevi bırakmadan önce imzaladığı kanunlardan birinin tüm kamu projelerinde “davranışsal iktisat” ilkelerinin kullanılması ile ilgili oluşu davranışsal iktisadın popülaritesinin artmasına katkı sağlamıştır. Davranışsal iktisat, insanların iktisadi kararlar alırken her zaman “akılcı” davr- anmadığını, pek çok sosyal, kültürel ve psikolojik etki altın...
Chile: Staff Report for the 2005 Article IV Consultation
The staff report for the 2005 Article IV Consultation for Chile highlights short-term economic outlook and fiscal policy under the structural surplus rule. The government is firmly committed to the structural surplus rule. The core inflation rate has risen, reflecting the gradual closing of the output gap and the second-round effects of higher energy prices. The central bank plans to continue gradually withdrawing monetary stimulus. It has appropriately started to raise interest rates, and further increases will likely be needed, depending on developments in inflation and the closing of the output gap.
Understanding the Costs of Deflation in the Japanese Context
This paper examines the cost of deflation in the context of Japan's ongoing deflationary episode. The impact of deflation owing to the zero interest rate bound on monetary policy, wage rigidity, redistribution of wealth from debtor to creditor, and inflexibilities in the financial sector are examined. It is seen that the generalized decline in the Japanese price level, however gradual or mild, has substantially exacerbated the economy's adjustment process under already difficult economic conditions.
Handbook of Contemporary Behavioral Economics
At a time when both scholars and the public demand explanations and answers to key economic problems that conventional approaches have failed to resolve, this groundbreaking handbook of original works by leading behavioral economists offers the first comprehensive articulation of behavioral economics theory. Borrowing from the findings of psychologists, sociologists, political scientists, legal scholars, and biologists, among others, behavioral economists find that intelligent individuals often tend not to behave as effectively or efficiently in their economic decisions as long held by conventional wisdom. The manner in which individuals actually do behave critically depends on psychological, institutional, cultural, and even biological considerations. "Handbook of Contemporary Behavioral Economics" includes coverage of such critical areas as the Economic Agent, Context and Modeling, Decision Making, Experiments and Implications, Labor Issues, Household and Family Issues, Life and Death, Taxation, Ethical Investment and Tipping, and Behavioral Law and Macroeconomics. Each contribution includes an extensive bibliography.
