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Restructuring Domestic Sovereign Debt: An Analytical Illustration
Sovereign domestic debt restructurings have become more common in recent years and touched upon a growing share of total public debt. This paper offers a simple framework for policymakers to think about the decision whether to restructure domestic sovereign debt as part of an effort to reduce overall public indebtedness. It also highlights a rather wide range of technical, legal, and operational issues a sovereign may face while restructuring domestic debt. As expected, factors such as debt reduction required to achieve sustainability, fiscal savings from a restructuring, and economic costs of a restructuring are key inputs into the decision making regarding a restructuring, but so are factors such as the composition of debt, financial stability costs, and crisis preparedness, all of which are discussed in the paper.
Nonresident Capital Flows and Volatility: Evidence from Malaysia’s Local Currency Bond Market
Malaysia’s local currency debt market is one of the most liquid public debt markets in the world. In recent years, the growing share of nonresident holders of debt has been a source of concern for policymakers as a reason behind exchange rate volatility. The paper provides an overview of the recent developments in the conventional debt market. It builds an empirical two-stage model to estimate the main drivers of debt capital flows to Malaysia. Finally, it uses a GARCH model to test the hypothesis that nonresident flows are behind the observed exchange rate volatility. The results suggest that the public debt market in Malaysia responds adequately to both pull and push factors and find no firm evidence that nonresident flows cause volatility in the onshore foreign exchange market.
On the Determinants of First-Time Sovereign Bond Issues
In recent years, the number of countries which have borrowed in international capital markets by issuing sovereign bonds has increased substantially. For these countries, capital market access meant a de facto acknowledgement of their policy successes and improvements in their creditworthiness that enabled them to graduate from the group of official financing recipients into a more advanced group of emerging market economies. The paper looks at the determinants of sovereign bond issuances and derives the relationship between internal and external factors and market access using a simple macro model. The market access condition is then translated into a simple rule that requires an excess demand for the sovereign bonds in question. Regression results based on this model offer some insights into peculiarities of first-time sovereign bond issues that could be used in policy deliberations.
Government Involvement in Corporate Debt Restructuring
The paper examines recent episodes of government involvement in corporate debt restructurings. It argues that corporate debt restructuring is an important step toward recovery from a financial crisis. We then discuss the rationale for, and modalities of, the state intervention in corporate debt workouts through reviewing six countries with large scale corporate debt workouts. Case studies reveal that the costs of corporate sector rescue are significant and in several cases on par with the costs of financial sector bailouts. The paper sheds light on the importance of contingent liabilities and associated risks to government balance sheet from the corporate debt side and emphasizes the need for improved contingency planning for corporations with potential systemic impact.
Inflation and Conflict in Iraq
Containing inflation has turned out to be one of the most challenging aspects of economic management in Iraq. This paper posits that conventional as well as unconventional factors explain inflation dynamics in the recent past. We build a theoretical model based on the insights into the workings of socialist economies under supply shortages provided by Shleifer and Vishny (1992) to help explain price dynamics. In the model, strategic behavior of the fuel distribution monopolist results in fuel shortages, with implications for fuel and non-fuel inflation. A number of step-wise adjustments of administered prices for fuel products since December 2005 offer an interesting experiment to help study this behavior. Our findings show that inflation may have been influenced by shortages in fuel and non-fuel commodity supplies, which themselves are driven by violence and rent-seeking.
Sovereign Risk and Deposit Dynamics
The unprecedented expansion of sovereign balance sheets since the global financial crisis has given a new meaning to the term sovereign risk. Developments in Europe since early 2010 presented new challenges for the functioning of private banks in an environment of heightened sovereign risk. This paper uses an innovative way of measuring the perception of sovereign risk and its impact on deposit dynamics during 2006–11. Using an extension of a common market discipline framework, it shows that exposure to sovereign risk may have limited the ability of banks in Europe to attract deposits. The results are robust to inclusion of conventional measures of bank performance and the sector-wide holdings of foreign sovereign debt.
Costa Rica
Costa Rica has embarked on an ambitious reform of its public debt management function and has made significant progress to date. On the institutional front, it includes the establishment of the Commission for Sovereign Assets and Liabilities for the coordination of public debt management, cash management, and financial programming of the budget. An IMF Technical Assistance mission visited San Jose in November 2022 to assist the Ministry of Finance in preparation of a framework for Sovereign Asset and Liability Management. This note summarizes the mission’s findings and recommendations.
Jamaica Debt Exchange
The sovereign debt restructuring operation in Jamaica undertaken in early-2010 was a unique experiment that perhaps offered less by way of upside, if compared to the conventional sovereign debt exchanges, but provided credible assurances against further downfall and financial sector distress. A case study of a highly indebted country with domestically held debt, the paper discusses the conditions leading to the exchange, the rationale behind it, as well as its operational aspects. Achievements of the exchange, too, are discussed in detail. The paper also outlines the risks stemming from the high levels of debt—which continue to remain high—requiring prompt and coordinated action by policymakers if the legacy of the debt exchange is to be preserved.
Deposit Insurance, Remittances, and Dollarization
The paper uses a unique survey of remittance-receiving individuals from Tajikistan to study the impact of policy awareness on consumer behavior. The results show that knowledge of deposit insurance encourages the use of formal channels for transmitting remittances and reduces dollarization. Given the size and importance of remittances in Tajikistan, improving financial literacy and better publicizing details of the social safety net may encourage a more frequent use of formal channels for transferring remittances and reduce reliance on foreign exchange for transaction purposes. This is likely to improve bank profitability, enhance financial stability, and improve access to finance.
Determinants of Commercial Bank Performance in Transition
Banking sectors in transition economies have experienced major transformations throughout the 1990s. While some countries have been successful in eliminating underlying distortions and restructuring their financial sectors, in some cases financial sectors remain underdeveloped and the rates of financial intermediation continue to be quite low.Grigorian and Manole estimate indicators of commercial bank efficiency by applying a version of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to bank-level data from a wide range of transition countries. They further extend the analysis by explaining the differences in efficiency between financial institutions and countries by a variety of macroeconomic, prudential, ...
