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Sticky Prices
This paper presents a model of staggered price setting that allows for a flexible distribution of the durations of the prices underlying aggregate price behavior, and estimates it with U.S. data. When tested against an unrestricted version of this model, standard models of sticky prices are rejected. In contrast, a stylized model that assumes a trimodal distribution of price durations—with clusters on the first, fourth, and eighth quarter after prices are set—easily passes the same test. In addition, this model is able to replicate the dynamic behavior of inflation and output found in the data.
Macroeconomic Performance Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes
This paper reexamines the macroeconomic effects of wage indexation in an open economy under alternative exchange rate regimes. The main finding is that, once the lags in actual indexation rules are considered, wage indexation affects output behavior substantially less than posited in the previous academic literature. This result implies that the academic view that wage indexation makes a flexible exchange rate generally preferable is unwarranted and suggests that the choice of exchange rate regime with and without wage indexation depends on similar factors. The analysis also reveals that the net effects of wage indexation on macroeconomic stability are ambiguous.
On a Common Currency for the GCC Countries
This paper assesses the eventual replacement of the currencies of the GCC countries with a common currency. It concludes that a properly implemented currency union may contribute to enhance economic efficiency in the region, deepen regional integration, and develop its non-oil economy. However, it cautions that a currency union should be seen as only one component of a much broader integration effort. This should include the removal of the distortions that inhibit intraregional trade and investment, agreements on policy frameworks to ensure macroeconomic stability, and further political integration. The paper also addresses the choice of exchange rate arrangement for the unified currency.
Inflation Targeting and Output Stability
This paper reexamines the effects of inflation targeting on output stability. It considers an economy with staggered price setting that is exposed to price shocks and where the policymaker cannot observe the current realizations of aggregate output and inflation. The paper shows that, if some price shocks can be anticipated, the effects of inflation targeting depend critically on the inflation indicator being targeted. Specifically, targeting headline inflation can severely destabilize output, while targeting inflation indicator of sticky prices may eliminate that problem and make the response of the output gap to aggregate shocks short-lived.
The Macroeconomic Consequences of Wage Indexation Revisited
Since the mid-1970s, there has been considerable research on the macroeconomic consequences of wage indexation. Nonetheless, until recently, this research had not explicitly explored the implications of contracts that index wages to lagged inflation, the usual type of wage indexation observed in practice. Drawing mainly on recent research by the author, this paper examines the consequences of wage indexation to lagged inflation on aggregate wage formation, the cost of disinflation under money- and exchange-rate-based stabilization, the variability of output under alternative shocks and policy regimes, the choice of exchange rate regime, and the level and variability of inflation.
What Type of Contracts Underlie Aggregate Wage Dynamics?
This paper shows that it is possible to estimate the importance of different types of wage contracts at the aggregate level using the same data used to estimate standard Phillips curves. It finds that the behavior of the Chilean private aggregate wage during the 1980s is well described by two-year contracts that are revised every six months according to 100 percent of past inflation. The estimates also show that the unemployment rate was a strong determinant of the contract’s target real wage and that most wage negotiations were carried through during the first half of every year. The results prove robust to a variety of tests and fit the data better than standard Phillips curves.
Wage Indexation and Macroeconomic Stability
Since the seminal papers by Gray (1976) and Fischer (1977) were published, the major theorem of the wage indexation literature has been that indexing wages stabilizes output when shocks are nominal and destabilizes output when shocks are real. This paper reexamines the validity of this proposition taking into account the lags in actual indexation practices in an economy similar to that originally considered by those authors. It shows that in such a setup, wage contracts indexed to lagged inflation tend to destabilize output regardless of whether shocks are nominal or real.
Inflation Targeting
How should governments and central banks use monetary policy to create a healthy economy? Traditionally, policymakers have used such strategies as controlling the growth of the money supply or pegging the exchange rate to a stable currency. In recent years a promising new approach has emerged: publicly announcing and pursuing specific targets for the rate of inflation. This book is the first in-depth study of inflation targeting. Combining penetrating theoretical analysis with detailed empirical studies of countries where inflation targeting has been adopted, the authors show that the strategy has clear advantages over traditional policies. They argue that the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Eu...
Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies
Recent crises in Argentina and Turkey illustrate the continuing importance of fiscal problems in precipitating financial crises, and whatever their cause, financial crises always have important fiscal dimensions. market economies, particularly with regards to the fiscal causes of crises; fiscal vulnerability indicators which can help to predict crises; whether fiscal variables explain the severity of crises; and the fiscal consequences of crises. The study uses a large set of fiscal variables for 29 emerging market economies over the period 1970-2000; as well as detailed case studies of 11 recent crises in emerging market economies to examine some of the structural and institutional dimensions of fiscal vulnerability.
Chile
This publication discusses the institutional factors and economic policies adopted in Chile over the last two decades, which have resulted in a period of national financial stability and economic growth during a difficult period for many other countries in the region. Issues discussed include: the political and constitutional framework, the role of institutions in price stability, trade policy and fiscal discipline, Chile's macroeconomic policy; capital markets and corporate financing; recent developments in the banking system, external trade relations and debt sustainability, public sector finances, and export specialisation.
