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Information Rigidity in Growth Forecasts
We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of recessions and crises; (ii) if rigidities differ across countries, particularly between advanced countries and emerging markets; and (iii) how quickly forecasters incorporate news about growth in other countries into their growth forecasts, with a focus on how advanced countries‘ growth forecasts incorporate news about emerging market growth and vice versa.
Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers
This paper investigates the relation between growth forecast errors and planned fiscal consolidation during the crisis. We find that, in advanced economies, stronger planned fiscal consolidation has been associated with lower growth than expected, with the relation being particularly strong, both statistically and economically, early in the crisis. A natural interpretation is that fiscal multipliers were substantially higher than implicitly assumed by forecasters. The weaker relation in more recent years may reflect in part learning by forecasters and in part smaller multipliers than in the early years of the crisis.
Cyclical Analysis of Time Series
Study of programmed procedures in economic research and statistical method with regard to computerised analysis of cyclical turning points relative to business cycles. References.
Dissecting the Cycle
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The Ferry Home
Step back in time with this memoir as a Rhode Island woman chronicles her childhood spent on a small island in Narragansett Bay in the 1950s. A memoir of reconnecting to long-forgotten childhood bonds and memories, Debbie Kaiman Tillinghast’s The Ferry Home embraces joyful moments with humor and more troubling emotions with compassion. If you have ever faced emotional challenges within your family or had a sibling relationship with both squabbles and shared mischief, if you have found peace in one memorable place, or if you have ever longed for any of these, then this book is for you. Experience the rhythm of life on Prudence Island, the ebb and flow of changing tides and seasons, and the patterns and relationships that emerge. It is a place where independence is fostered, but friends are always there when needed. As Debbie’s vivid accounts unfold, you will feel like you too have just stepped off the ferry and been embraced by the tiny Prudence Island community.
