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Growth Accounting and Growth Processes
The standard growth accounting framework, which weights various inputs by their factor shares to measure their contributions to output growth, is known to underestimate the contribution of inputs in the presence of externalities and increasing returns. This paper develops a model in which, in the absence of such departures from the standard neoclassical framework, growth can occur through either embodied technological progress or firms replication of existing technology. The standard growth accounting framework fails to distinguish between these contrasting development processes. This failure thus reveals another limitation to the use of growth accounting in identifying the processes of economic developments.
Discretionary Trading and Asset Price Volatility
The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
Macroeconomic Issues Facing ASEAN Countries
This volume, edited by John Hicklin, David Robinson, and Anoop Singh, contains papers prepared for an ASEAN conference held in Jakarta in November 1996. The conference aimed to review the macroeconomic record of the member countries of ASEAN, examine the factors that have contributed to the region's economic success, and identify the policy agenda for sustaining this success into the 21st century.
Cyclical Effects of the Composition of Government Purchases
This paper constructs a general equilibrium model with monopolistically competitive firms and endogenous markups where government spending consists of both consumption and investment goods. It is shown that when markups are countercyclical, increases in the share of investment goods in aggregate government expenditure entail a trade-off between greater long- run efficiency and higher short-run volatility. Estimates based on the model, calibrated to the postwar U.S. economy, show that the effects on output, employment, and welfare can be significant
Policy Complementarities and the Washington Consensus
While economists continue to debate whether particular economic policies, such as those referred to in Willliamson’s (1993) “Washington Consensus,” can spur growth in developing countries, this paper demonstrates that it is combinations of policies that are more critical for growth. Policy complementarity refers to the mutually reinforcing benefits of policies that create an environment that is conducive to investment and growth. Quantitative measures of policy complementarity are developed, and the study shows empirically, through both an outcomes-based probability framework and a standard regression analysis, that these complementarities are significant and robust in explaining growth outcomes over the period 1985–95.
China and India Learning from Each Other
This publication contains 13 papers presented at an international seminar, held in Beijing in October 2005, which was jointly organised by the IMF, the China Society for Finance and Banking, and the Stanford Center for International Development. The papers set out the analysis of high-level policymakers and advisors in China and India about the structural economic reforms being implemented in their respective countries, and the challenges and lessons to be learned from their experiences in order to achieve long-term sustainable development. The papers focus on the following issues: banking sector reform, securities market development, domestic financial liberalisation and international financial integration, fiscal dimensions of sustaining high growth, Sino-Indian economic co-operation, and the implications of the emergence of China and India for the regional and international financial system.
China
China's economic reforms over the past two decades have brought tremendous economic transformation, rapid growth, and closer integration into the global economy. Real income per capita has increased fivefold, raising millions of Chinese out of poverty. Despite these achievements, difficult reforms--involving the state-owned enterprises and the financial sector--must still be completed, and social pressures from rising unemployment and income inequalities need to be addressed. China's accession to the World Trade Organization will bring benefits but will also impose obligations on the economy, and could prove to be a watershed for the reform process. This book looks at the country's reform process, its past successes and future challenges.
India in a Changing World
During the past few years, India has passed through a tumultuous period, characterised by events, ideas and reforms which are truly transforming the socio-economic landscape of the country. It is an era of great upheaval in the country—socially, economically and politically—which is making a complete break with its past to rediscover itself and to redefine its role in the twenty-first century world. This book, a collection of fifty published essays, captures the spirit of these extraordinary times in India that are shaping not only its own future, but also impacting, and being in turn impacted by, the world around. In the process of harnessing the energy and creative potential of the billion-plus population of this youthful nation, and to leverage the power of technology to accelerate growth and improve delivery, fault-lines are also appearing that threaten to disrupt the process of change. The book chronicles the essence of these changing times in India, encompassing its history, economy and society against the backdrop of a rapidly evolving world.
Federalism and Economic Reform
This collection focuses on the ways in which federalism has affected and been affected by economic reform, especially global integration. The editors and contributors focus in particular on the political economy of institutional and economic change - how the division of authority between national and subnational governments shapes debates over policy changes, as well as how the changing economic environment creates incentives to modify the basic agreements between levels of governments. Each chapter contains a historical overview, and an in-depth account of division of authority, lines of accountability, and legislative, bureaucratic, and other arenas in which the levels of government interact for a particular country. The analyses are based on reform (or non-reform) episodes for each country - most from recent history, but some spanning the century. As a collection, the country studies span a range of developing and industrial countries with varying political systems.
Hong Kong Special Administrative Region
Hong Kong SAR's population is aging rapidly. This paper concludes that, without a change in policies, aging could adversely affect growth and living standards. While higher labor productivity growth and increased migration of younger skilled workers from the Chinese mainland, would attenuate the economic impact of aging, they would not offset it fully. Aging will also put pressure on public finances, particularly as a result of rising health care costs. There is a relatively narrow window of opportunity to implement policies to lessen the impact of aging, given that the demographic effects could start setting in as early as 2015 when the working population's support ratio peaks. In recent years, the Hong Kong SAR authorities have been focusing on policies that could help limit the fiscal impact of aging, including continued expenditure restraint on non-age-sensitive areas, reform of health care financing (including introducing private health insurance system), and tax reforms.
