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Simulating Inflation Forecasting in Real-Time
This paper simulates out-of-sample inflation forecasting for Germany, the UK, and the US. In contrast to other studies, we use output gaps estimated with unrevised real-time GDP data. This exercise assumes an information set similar to that available to a policymaker at a given point in time since GDP data is subject to sometimes substantial revisions. In addition to using real-time datasets for the UK and the US, we employ a dataset for real-time German GDP data not used before. We find that Phillips curves based on ex post output gaps generally improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts compared to an AR(1) forecast but that real-time output gaps often do not help forecasting inflation. This raises the question how operationally useful certain output gap estimates are for forecasting inflation.
Cyclical Behavior of Inventories and Growth Projections Recent Evidence From Europe and the United States
In the United States and a few European countries, inventory behavior is mainly the outcome of demand shocks: a standard buffer-stock model best characterizes these economies. But most European countries are described by a modified buffer-stock model where supply shocks dominate. In contrast to the United States, inventories boost growth with a one-year lag in Europe. Moreover, inventories provide limited information to improve growth forecasts particularly when a modified buffer-stock model characterizes inventory behavior.
Scan
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Mosquitoes & Sawdust
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Newsletter
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Worldwide Government Directory with Intergovernmental Organizations 2013
Published for more than 24 years, there is no substitute for the Worldwide Government Directory, which allows users to identify and reach 32,000 elected and appointed officials in 201 countries, plus the European Union. Extensive coverage that includes over 1,800 pages of executive, legislative and political branches; heads of state, ministers, deputies, secretaries and spokespersons as well as state agencies, diplomats and senior level defense officials. It also covers the leadership of more than 100 international organizations. World Government contact information that includes phone numbers and email. Listings include: Name, addresses, telephone and fax numbers, email and web addresses Titles Hierarchical arrangements defining state structures
Publications of the Society for the Advancement of Scandinavian Study
Includes Proceedings of the Society.
