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Long
Several authors have recently investigated the predictability of exchange rates by fitting a sequence of long-horizon error-correction regressions. By considering the implied vector error-correction model, we show that little is to be gained from estimating such regressions for horizons greater than one time period. We also show that in small to medium samples the long-horizon procedure gives rise to spurious evidence of predictive power. A simulation study demonstrates that even when using this technique on two independent series, estimates, diagnostic statistics and graphical evidence incorrectly suggest a high degree of predictability of the dependent variable.
An Introduction to Criminal Psychology
Crime is a topic that is of considerable interest to policy-makers, politicians and the public alike. We want to know what factors can explain the nature and prevalence of crime in society and use this knowledge to better develop approaches for managing criminal behaviour. This book provides a comprehensive overview of approaches to understanding crime and criminal behaviour, with a focus on psychological perspectives. A wide range of different types of criminal behaviour are considered, including juvenile crime, violent offending, sexual offending, collective violence and drug use. For each type of offence a clear overview of key conceptual and methodological issues is provided, along with ...
Secret Sanction
Word of Honor meets A Few Good Men in a stunning thriller that pits the Green Berets, C.I.A., and White House against a top Army lawyer in an Investigation that could put the U.S. military on trial. A battalion of Serbs has been senselessly murdered in Kosovo and the Green Berets stand accused. Now, Major Sean Drummond, a top Army lawyer, is assigned to investigate this unspeakable atrocity. But of course, no one saw anything. Drummond gets consistently suspicious depositions from all of the Green Berets: Supposedly pursued by Serb soldiers, they left the engagement with wounded Serbs firing at them, and no one can explain the number of deaths. Teamed with a straight-laced prosecutor and a sexy defense attorney, Drummond probes further but forces continue to hide the truth. Soon a reporter is found dead, Drummond suspects there's a traitor on his team, and everyone from the CIA to the president may be involved in a cover-up that could threaten the stability of the most powerful nation in theworld.
Machiavellian Encounters in Tudor and Stuart England
Taking into consideration the political and literary issues hanging upon the circulation of Machiavelli's works in England, this volume highlights how topics and ideas stemming from Machiavelli's books - including but not limited to the Prince - strongly influenced the contemporary political debate. The first section discusses early reactions to Machiavelli's works, focusing on authors such as Reginald Pole and William Thomas, depicting their complex interaction with Machiavelli. In section two, different features of Machiavelli's reading in Tudor literary and political culture are discussed, moving well beyond the traditional image of the tyrant or of the evil Machiavel. Machiavelli's histo...
The Dynamics of Real Interest Rates, Real Exchange Rates and the Balance of Payments in China
Based on China's experience between 1980 and 2002, a cointegrated vector autoregression model was established to explore the relationships among real interest rates, real exchange rates and balance of payments in China. Taking into account institutional changes, the empirical study shows that significant and usually non-monotonic interactions exist between these three variables. The paper discusses theoretical and policy implications of the empirical result.
Medium-Term Exchange Rate Forecasting
The medium-term predictability of exchange rate movements is examined using three models of fundamentals: purchasing power parity, the monetary model, and uncovered interest parity. While the first two approaches yield favorable in-sample results, these largely reflect finite-sample estimation biases. Adjusting for these biases, there is little evidence of predictability, consistent with the lack of systematic improvement in out-of-sample forecasting performance relative to a random walk. Uncovered interest parity fares better at long horizons, but reflects information already embodied in market prices; in this sense, it may not be useful as an indicator of exchange rate misalignment. While more elaborate models of fundamentals might have better medium-term forecasting properties, careful attention must be paid to finite-sample biases in assessing predictability.
Constitutional Conservatism
Peter Berkowitz identifies the political principles social conservatives and libertarians share, or should share, and sketches the common ground on which they can and should join forces. Drawing on the writings of Edmund Burke, The Federalist, and the high points of post-World War II American conservatism, he argues that the top political priority for social conservatives and libertarians should be to rally around the principles of liberty embodied in the US Constitution and pursue reform in light of them.
Landmark Yiddish Plays
Introduces readers to comic and tragic masterpieces spanning 150 years of Yiddish drama. Offering snapshots of a pivotal era in which the Jews of Europe made the transition from a traditional to a more modern world, the Yiddish plays translated and collected here wrestle with issues that continue to concern us today: changing gender roles, generational conflict, class divisions, and religious persecution. In their introduction to the volume, Joel Berkowitz and Jeremy Dauber place the plays in the context of the development of modern drama and Yiddish drama and examine their treatment of social, political, and religious issues. The many ways in which the plays address these issues make them t...
The Economist
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