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Sub-Saharan African Migration
Amid rapid population growth, migration in sub-Saharan Africa has been increasing briskly over the last 20 years. Up to the 1990s, the stock of migrants—citizens of one country living in another country—was dominated by intraregional migration, but over the last 15 years, migration outside the region has picked up sharply. In the coming decades, sub-Saharan African migration will be shaped by an ongoing demographic transition involving an enlargement of the working-age population, and migration outside the region, in particular to advanced economies, is set to continue expanding. This note explores the main drivers of sub-Saharan African migration, focusing on migration outside the regio...
Trade Integration and Global Value Chains in Sub-Saharan Africa
This analysis of the extent of trade integration of sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries in the global economy as well as within the region over the 1995–2013 period focuses on four key concepts: (1) trade openness, captured by import and export flows; (2) the centrality in the global and regional trade network, a measure that takes into account not only the size of trade but also the number of trade partners and the respective weight of these trade partners in global trade; (3) gravity model estimates that account for country- and region-specific determinants of bilateral trade flows; and (4) global value chain (GVC) integration. Using both existing data and a newly available dataset based...
Competition, Competitiveness and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
Does greater product market competition improve external competitiveness and growth? This paper examines this question by using country-and firm-level data for a sample of 39 sub-Saharan African countries over 2000–17, as well as other emerging market economies and developing countries, and finds that an improvement in domestic competition is associated with a signficant increase in real GDP per capita growth rate, achieved mainly through an improvement in export competitiveness and productivity growth. Price levels, including of essential items, are also generally lowered with an increase in competition. Moreover, at the firm-level, evidence shows that greater competition—proxied through a decline in corporate market power—is associated with an increase in firm’s investment and the labor’s share in output. These effects are more pronounced in the manufacturing sector and among domestic firms compared to foreign firms.
Growth Breaks and Growth Spells in Sub-Saharan Africa
This paper examines the growth performance of sub-Saharan African countries since 1960 through the lens of growth turning points (accelerations and decelerations) and periods of sustained growth (growth spells). Growth accelerations are generally associated with improved external conditions, increased investment and trade openness, declines in inflation, better fiscal balances, and improvements in the institutional environment. Transitioning from growth accelerations to growth spells often requires additional efforts beyond what is needed to trigger an acceleration. Growth spells are sustained by fiscal policy that prevents excessive public debt accumulation, monetary policy geared toward low inflation, outward-oriented trade policies, and structural policies that reduce market distortions, as well as supportive external environment and improvements in democratic institutions. Overall, determinants of growth spells in sub-Saharan Africa are different from those in the rest of the emerging and developing countries.
The Impact of Fiscal Consolidations on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
This paper examines the output effects of changes in public expenditure and revenue in sub-Saharan African countries during 1990–2016. Fiscal multipliers in sub-Saharan Africa are somewhat smaller than those in advanced and emerging economies. The effect of changes in fiscal policy on output depends on the composition: cutting public investment has a larger effect on output than cutting public consumption or raising revenue. Episodes of fiscal consolidation have short- and medium-term output effects, but here, too, composition matters: fiscal consolidations based on reducing public investment have the largest effect on output, while fiscal consolidations based on revenue mobilization are less harmful than those based on public investment cuts. These findings suggest that the negative impact on growth can be mitigated through the design of fiscal adjustment and the accompanying policy environment.
Unlocking Opportunities in Sub-Saharan Africa
Emerging markets, like many countries in sub-Saharan Africa present evident opportunities for products and services companies. Many organisations see these markets as the next frontiers, however, tapping into this opportunity usually comes with the challenge of achieving sustainable profitability. Over time, these emerging markets, especially those in Africa, have been through consistently high growth and also experienced declines. This book seeks to explain the scenario and shares a framework for how organisations should approach such emerging markets to achieve sustainable success. It explains via illustrations and cases how organisations will need to be mindful of the volatility ahead and build that into the plan through a combination of the approaches to customer insight, product portfolio development, value creation, route to market design and execution, product promotions, the place of technology in unlocking opportunities, human resources practices, supply chain, ethical considerations in competing and winning at the base of the pyramid in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Improving Sovereign Financing Conditions Through Data Transparency
Does it pay off to be transparent and, if so, can the benefits of transparency be measured? This paper provides an affirmative answer to both questions, supported by novel evidence on the link between transparency through dissemination of economic data and sovereign bond spreads. It explores changes in sovereign financing conditions when countries join the IMF Data Standards Initiatives—a multilateral framework that promotes data transparency as a global public good. The results from event studies and local projection models show a significant decrease in spreads following the adoption of the standards. In addition, countries with relatively weaker governance benefit the most from signaling their effort toward strengthening transparency.
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