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Real Exchange Rate Targeting Under Imperfect Asset Substitutability
This paper presents a model of an economy that uses nominal exchange rate policy to keep the real exchange rate constant at a certain target level, under imperfect asset substitutability. The paper discusses the determinants of inflation under such a policy, and examines the consequences of exogenous and policy-induced shocks on inflation, the external accounts, and the fiscal accounts. The shocks considered include changes in the real exchange rate target, changes in fiscal policy, changes in foreign interest rates, and open market sales of public sector domestic bonds.
Enhancing Development Assistance to Africa
The pace of progress toward achievement of the Millenium Development Goals (MDG) in many sub-Saharan African countries remains too slow to reach targets by 2015, despite significant progress in the late 1990s. The MDG Africa Steering Group, convened in September 2007 by the UN Secretary-General, designated 10 countries for pilot studies to investigate how existing national development plans would be impacted by scaled up development aid to Africa. This joint publication of the IMF and the United Nations Development Programme reports conclusions drawn from these pilot studies and summarizes country-specific results for Benin, the Central African Republic, Ghana, Liberia, Niger, Rwanda, Tanzania, Togo, Sierra Leone, and Zambia.
Determinants and Systemic Consequences of International Capital Flows
The growing integration of capital markets has strengthened incentives for greater international coordination of economic and financial policies. Structural changes in these financial market, however, may have undermined the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy and complicated market access by developing countries. These are among the findings of this study of capital flows in the 1970s and the 1980s.
Alternative Dual Exchange Market Regimes
This paper compares two alternative dual exchange market regimes. In one of them, the official market clears through changes in international reserves, while in the other regime, the central bank implements a rationing scheme so as to keep international reserves constant. The paper discusses the effects on the rate of inflation, the balance of payments, the real exchange rate, and the spread between the free and the official exchange rate, of various economic policies, including exchange rate policy, fiscal policy, and unification of the exchange markets. It concludes that the steady state effects for most of these policies are qualitatively the same under both regimes.
Leading Indicators of Currency Crises
This paper examines the empirical evidence on currency crises and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place within the following 24 months. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
Economic Dislocation and Recovery in Lebanon
This paper provides background information on the Lebanese economy, based on an analysis of the economic consequences of war, and discusses several issues that will be central to Lebanon's prospects for recovery
Foreign Direct Investment in a Macroeconomic Framework
Does foreign direct investment affect national saving both directly and indirectly through the rate of economic growth? It depends on which countries you're talking about. Pacific Basin countries appear to differ markedly from some other developing countries.
Targeting the Real Exchange Rate
This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of policies aimed at setting a more depreciated level of the real exchange rate. An intertemporal optimizing model suggests that, in the absence of changes in fiscal policy, a more depreciated level of the real exchange can only be attained temporarily. This can be achieved by means of higher inflation and/or higher real interest rates, depending on the degree of capital mobility. Evidence for Brazil, Chile, and Colombia supports the model`s prediction that undervalued real exchange rates are associated with higher inflation.
IMF Staff papers, Volume 45 No. 1
This paper analyzes some leading indicators of currency crises, and proposes a specific early warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit an unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. When an indicator exceeds a certain threshold value, this is interpreted as a warning “signal” that a currency crisis may take place. The variables that have the best track record within this approach include exports, deviations of the real exchange rate from trend, and the ratio of broad money to gross international reserves, output, and equity prices.
