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Dollarization in Sub-Saharan Africa
Dollarization—the use of foreign currencies as a medium of exchange, store of value, or unit of account—is a notable feature of financial development under macroeconomically fragile conditions. It has emerged as a key factor explaining vulnerabilities and currency crises, which have long been observed in Latin America, parts of Asia, and Eastern Europe. Dollarization is also present, prominently, in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where it remains significant and persistent at over 30 percent rates for both bank loans and deposits—although it has not increased significantly since 2001. However, progress in reducing dollarization has lagged behind other regions and, in this regard, it is legitimate to ask whether this phenomenon is an important concern in SSA. This study fills a gap in the literature by analyzing these issues with specific reference to the SSA region on the basis of the evidence for the past decade.
Managing Volatile Capital Flows: Experiences and Lessons for Sub-Saharan African Frontier Markets
During the past three years the frontier markets of sub-Saharan Africa have received growing amounts of portfolio capital flows, with heightened interest from foreign investors. Compared with foreign direct investment, portfolio capital flows tend to be more volatile, and thus pose challenges for sub-Saharan African frontier markets. This study examines the evolution of capital flows since 2010 and discusses the policies these countries have designed to reduce risks from the inherent volatility of these flows.
Financial Dollarization of Households and Firms: Does It Differ?
Using a newly complied and extended database from International Financial Statistics, and applying different panel-regression techniques, this paper documents the evolution of households’ and firms’ dollarization over the past decade. We assess the macroeconomic determinants of dollarization for households and firms and explore differences between high and low-income countries. We find that households’ and firms’ dollarization in loans and deposits are weakly explained by the currency substitution model, except in low income countries, where inflation plays a significant role. Instead, market development variables such as financial deepening, access to external debt and FX finance as well as other market considerations are key to explain the dynamics of deposits and loans dollarization, regardless of the level of income.These factors can account for a significant fraction of the dollarization, but using a variance decomposition model, there is evidence that a non-negligible portion has yet to be explained. This suggests that there are key determinants for household and firm dollarization that are not fully captured by traditional macroeconomic explanatory variables.
A Deep Dive Into Tax Buoyancy: Comparing Estimation Techniques in a Large Heterogeneous Panel
This paper provides new empirical evidence on tax buoyancy (tax revenues responsiveness to changes in economic activity) over the period 1990-2020 using a large panel of 185 countries. This study compares short-term and long-term buoyancy coefficients for total tax revenues and different individual taxes by reviewing and contrasting a range of estimators. Our results broadly confirm the main body of the literature on long-term buoyancy hovering around one. We find evidence of lower estimates for short-term buoyancy relative to previous literature, suggesting a limited automatic stabilization power of taxes. As a robustness exercise, in addition to changes in tax rates, we introduce novel control variables for tax exemptions and bases to disentangle discretionary from automatic tax revenue changes. The marginal changes in the results when controlling for policy actions suggest that, on average, the economic cycle does not necessarily influence tax reforms.
COLOMBIA: Autonomous Committee for the Fiscal Rule Macroeconomic Framework Technical Assistance: Scoping Mission Report
This note summarizes the main findings and action plan of the IMF Technical Assistance (TA) Scoping Mission to support the Colombian Autonomous Committee for the Fiscal Rule (CARF) in building capacity on macroeconomic forecasting and analysis. The TA was requested by the CARF to develop a macroeconomic projections tool, integrate its current satellite fiscal forecasting models, institutionalize the use of the tool, and develop a methodology to independently assess macro-fiscal forecasts produced by the Ministry of Finance.
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