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The Future of Saving
This SDN explores how demographic changes have affected and will affect public and private sector savings, highlighting the interaction between pension systems, labor markets, and demographic variables.
Nowcasting GDP - A Scalable Approach Using DFM, Machine Learning and Novel Data, Applied to European Economies
This paper describes recent work to strengthen nowcasting capacity at the IMF’s European department. It motivates and compiles datasets of standard and nontraditional variables, such as Google search and air quality. It applies standard dynamic factor models (DFMs) and several machine learning (ML) algorithms to nowcast GDP growth across a heterogenous group of European economies during normal and crisis times. Most of our methods significantly outperform the AR(1) benchmark model. Our DFMs tend to perform better during normal times while many of the ML methods we used performed strongly at identifying turning points. Our approach is easily applicable to other countries, subject to data availability.
Inflation in Portugal
This paper examines recent trends, main drivers, and risks to near-term inflation in Portugal. Before the energy crisis, inflation in Portugal was low, often below the Euro Area average, but it accelerated quickly in the second half of 2022. Our estimated Phillips curve regression suggests that, similarly to other Euro Area countries, inflation in Portugal has been largely driven by food and external prices pressures. Inflation is projected to gradually decrease, reflecting receding energy prices and anchored inflation expectations. However, uncertainty remains high and inflation could remain elevated, especially if the inflationary process became backward looking or wage-inflation spirals are induced by pressures from energy prices.
The Fiscal Consequences of Shrinking Populations
This Staff Discussion Note looks at the stark fiscal challenges posed by the decline and aging of populations between now and 2100. It finds that without reforms, pensions and health spending would rise to 25 percent of GDP by end-century in more developed countries (and 16 percent of GDP in less developed countries), with potentially dire fiscal consequences. Given the uncertainty underlying the population projections and associated large fiscal risks, a multi-pronged approach will be required. This could include entitlement reform—starting now but at a gradual pace; policies that affect demographics and labor markets; and better tax systems and more efficient public expenditure.
Household Savings in Selected Southern European Countries Evidence from Cross-Country Micro-Level Data
The paper looks into the puzzle of low household savings in three Southern European (SE3) countries – Cyprus, Greece, and Portugal. Building on the household saving drivers literature, we employ cross-country micro-level data and investigate the key saving patterns, examining their heterogeneity across households in SE3 countries relative to the EA average. The results confirm the prominent role of income, along with interest rate, inflation, fiscal balance, and debt in shaping household savings in SE3 countries. Quantile regressions employed to analyze saving behavior across the distribution of households suggest that households with lower savings tend to see their savings dip (or dissavings rise) more-than-proportionately with shocks to income, interest rate, inflation, and government balance. Our policy simulations across the distribution of households suggest that targeted rather than universal policy intervention could improve household savings, especially of the most vulnerable ones.
Fiscal Implications of Government Wage Bill Spending
This paper discusses the short- and medium-term fiscal implications of government wage bill spending. Working with a sample of 137 advanced, emerging and low-income countries, we use a panel VAR approach to identify differences in the dynamic behavior of revenues, nonwage expenditures, and the overall fiscal balance in response to changes in the wage bill. We show that the interaction between wage bill changes and these three fiscal items is alike and varies overtime. Higher wage bill spending does not revert in the medium term, but the initial worsening of the fiscal balance associated with it, though it persists, eventually halves as revenues increase while non-wage spending remains broadly unchanged. We also show that countries differ in how these three fiscal variables behave following wage bill changes and seek to explain this variation by a set of country characteristics, including the level of development, access to natural resources and public indebtedness levels.
Portugal
The Portuguese economy has sustained its dynamic recovery from the pandemic. Driven by private consumption and external demand, growth in 2022 was markedly higher than the euro area (6.7 percent versus 3.5 percent). Growth is projected to slow to 2.6 percent in 2023, with downdrafts from higher cost of living on domestic demand and a slower external demand growth. Headline inflation is expected to decline from 8.1 percent in 2022 to 5.6 percent in 2023, with core inflation declining more gradually. Near-term risks to the outlook are broadly balanced—key downside risks arise from tighter-than-projected financial conditions and weaker global growth, offset by upsides from tourism.
Official Directory of the European Union 2008
With over 11,000 names listed, the Officical directory of the European Union is indispensible for knowing whom to contact, and where, in the institutions, agencies and bodies of the Eurpean Union.
Official Directory of the European Union 2006-07
This annual directory gives contact details for key members of the institutions and agencies of the European Union, including the European Parliament, the Council, and the European Commission, down to the level of heads of basic operational units. Also known as the Inter-institutional directory of the European Union (IDEA), it contains information updated to July 2006, and it supersedes the 2005 edition (ISBN 9278402583) and the July 2005 update (ISBN 9278403024).
Angola
This Technical Assistance Report on Angola highlights that the Angolan authorities’ plan to scale up priority spending will intensify fiscal pressures. The overall fiscal balance is projected to reach a deficit of about 4 percent of GDP in 2014, owing to a temporary decline in oil production. Besides being fiscally costly, fuel subsidies are inefficient and inequitable. They crowd out growth-enhancing spending?Angola’s spending in fuel subsidies is roughly the same as outlays in education and 42 percent larger than health-spending countries. In addition, they provide rent seeking opportunities and raise governance challenges. Furthermore, subsidies create incentives for overconsumption a...
