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Mr. Leslie's Stories
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Conventional and Insidious Macroeconomic Balance-Sheet Crises
This paper describes the anatomy of two types of balance-sheet macroeconomic crises. Conventional balance-sheet crises are triggered by external imbalances and balance sheet vulnerabilities. They typically occur after capital inflows have led to a substantial build up of foreign currency exposure. Insidious crises are triggered by internal imbalances and balance sheet vulnerabilities. They occur in high-growth economies when an initially equilibrating shift in relative prices and resources and credit in favor of the nontraded sector overshoots equilibrium. The paper argues that policymakers are now better able to forestall conventional crises, but they are much less capable of early detection and avoidance of insidious crises.
Real Exchange Rates and Competitiveness
This paper examines indicators of competitiveness. It analyzes the conceptual foundations of conventional measures of the real exchange rate and finds that inferences about competitiveness from these indicators require strong, and in many cases implausible, assumptions. Based on this analysis some alternative measures are proposed and their use is illustrated using data from Europe. Given the usefulness of standardized indicators, four simple charts are proposed; these help solve some conundrums in the European data and provide the basis for a richer set of inferences about competitiveness.
Conventional and Insidious Macroeconomic Balance-Sheet Crises
This paper describes the anatomy of two types of balance-sheet macroeconomic crises. Conventional balance-sheet crises are triggered by external imbalances and balance sheet vulnerabilities. They typically occur after capital inflows have led to a substantial build up of foreign currency exposure. Insidious crises are triggered by internal imbalances and balance sheet vulnerabilities. They occur in high-growth economies when an initially equilibrating shift in relative prices and resources and credit in favor of the nontraded sector overshoots equilibrium. The paper argues that policymakers are now better able to forestall conventional crises, but they are much less capable of early detection and avoidance of insidious crises.
China
China encountered problems preserving economic stability while pursuing reforms aimed at increasing its economic flexibility and efficiency. This paper examines China's experience with market-oriented reforms since 1978, offering lessons for other centrally planned economies in the midst of transition to free markets.
Structural Aspects of the East Asian Crisis
This symposium proceedings provides insight into the possible role of the OECD in promoting economic recovery in the East Asian region.
Currency Convertibility and the Transformation of Centrally Planned Economies
This paper examines the problems in establishing currency convertibility- and the optimal timing- in formerly planned economies making the transition to market-oriented systems.
Determinants and Systemic Consequences of International Capital Flows
The growing integration of capital markets has strengthened incentives for greater international coordination of economic and financial policies. Structural changes in these financial market, however, may have undermined the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy and complicated market access by developing countries. These are among the findings of this study of capital flows in the 1970s and the 1980s.
United Kingdom
This 2002 Article IV Consultation highlights that the real GDP of the United Kingdom increased at an average rate of some 2.8 percent, and the unemployment rate halved to below 5 percent by April 2001. Inflation, which has been low since the mid-1990s, was—on a harmonized basis—about 1.5 percent, below the European Union average. Real output growth decelerated in 2002, but remained above that of other large European countries. Notwithstanding the global slowdown, the United Kingdom economy grew by 1.7 percent owing mainly to buoyant private consumption as well as increased public spending.
