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Credit Cyclicality in Chile
This paper analyzes the determinants of credit cyclicality. It constructs a financial development index and studies whether it affects the amplitude of impulse responses to shocks to output, terms of trade, global liquidity, and global risk appetite. The paper uses both country-specific VARs for cross-country analyses and panel VARs to compare impulse responses between various country groupings. The study finds evidence that financial development-especially stronger creditor rights-can mitigate credit cyclicality, given that the response of credit to output or terms of trade shocks is stronger in countries with weaker financial systems.
Development Centre Studies Emerging Africa
This study analyses the factors underlying the renewed dynamism of certain African economies in the 1990s.
New Partnership for Africa's Development
Adopted in 2001, the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) represents a new vision to place African countries on a path toward poverty reduction, sustainable growth, and full integration in the world economy. This conference volume includes papers selected from a high-level seminar in December 2002 held in Dakar, Senegal, organized by the IMF Institute in the context of the program of the Joint Africa Institute (JAI). The papers focus on the challenges confronting NEPAD in reducing poverty, promoting trade, attracting capital flows, and effecting institutional reforms.
r minus g negative: Can We Sleep More Soundly?
Contrary to the traditional assumption of interest rates on government debt exceeding economic growth, negative interest-growth differentials have become prevalent since the global financial crisis. As these differentials are a key determinant of public debt dynamics, can we sleep more soundly, despite high government debts? Our paper undertakes an empirical analysis of interestgrowth differentials, using the largest historical database on average effective government borrowing costs for 55 countries over up to 200 years. We document that negative differentials have occurred more often than not, in both advanced and emerging economies, and have often persisted for long historical stretches. Moreover, differentials are no higher prior to sovereign defaults than in normal times. Marginal (rather than average) government borrowing costs often rise abruptly and sharply, but just prior to default. Based on these results, our answer is: not really.
Emerging Africa
Based on the fundamental conviction that, unless growth resumes, poverty cannot be reduced in the least developed countries. This study analyses the factors underlying the renewed dynamism of certain African economies in the 1990s.
Ghana - Long Term Growth
Ghana??'s independence in March 1957 was celebrated with great flourish. But more than a quarter century of increasingly chaotic political and economic turbulence followed. Eventually a major reform program was launched, but after fifteen years its success has been modest. The long-run economic and political records are both lackluster, each limiting the potential of the other. The question is, why has Ghana not achieved sustained and rapid long-term growth? This study seeks to provide an answer.
Helping Countries Develop
Sets out principles for conducting fiscal policy in developing countries. Examines the role of public spending in meeting the Millennium Development Goals. Discusses the determinants of fiscal sustainability, the effectiveness of social spending, the limits to absorptive capacity, the volatility of aid flows and their impact on dependency, and a range of other contentious issues.
The Roots of the Military-political Crises in Cote D'Ivoire
With the coup d???etat of 24 December 1999 and the politico-military conflict that started on 19 September 2002, C??te d???Ivoire broke with its tradition of political stability, which had served as a model in the West African sub-region. It is now facing an unprecedented crisis that is not only jeopardizing the continuity of the state, but has also introduced a culture of violence into the society. This study has three objectives. The primary one is to understand the nature of this socio-political crisis, and what is at stake in it. Secondly, the study examines the issue of ivoirit??. Finally, it explores the escalation of violence in this socio-political crisis and the catalogue of justifications for that violence.It is argued that the recurrence of military coups d???etat in C??te d???Ivoire signifies the delegitimization of the modes of regulation built on the tontine system, and calls for a renewal of the political grammar and socio-political regulatory modalities around integrating principles that have yet to be devised.
