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Learning to Live with Cheaper Oil
This paper discusses the challenges posed by low oil prices in the MENA and CCA regions, the adjustment policies adopted so far, and remaining adjustment needs and future risks.
Making the Most of Public Investment in MENA and CCA Oil-Exporting Countries
Over the past decade, rising oil prices have translated into high levels of public investment in most MENA and CCA oil exporters. This has prompted questions about the efficiency of public investment in generating growth and closing infrastructure gaps, as well as concerns about fiscal vulnerabilities. When public investment is inefficient, higher levels of spending may simply lead to larger budget deficits, without sufficiency increasing the quantity or quality of public infrastructure in support of economic growth. This paper examines the efficiency of public investment in the MENA and CCA oil exporters using several techniques, including a novel application of the efficiency frontier analysis, estimates of unit investment costs, and assessments of public investment processes. The analysis confirms that these oil exporters have substantial room to improve public investment efficiency. Reforms in the public financial and investment management systems are needed to achieve this objective.
Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices
The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
The Potential Macroeconomic Impact of the Unconventional Oil and Gas Boom in the United States
This paper uses two of the IMF's structural macroeconomic models to estimate the potential global impact of the boom in unconventional oil and natural gas in the United States. The results suggest that the impact on the level of U.S. real GDP over roughly the next decade could be significant, but modest, ranging between 1 and 11⁄2 percent. Further, while the impact on the U.S. energy trade balance will be large, most results suggest that its impact on the overall U.S. current account will be negligible. The impact outside of the United States will be modestly positive on average, but most countries dependent on energy exports will be affected adversely.
Dissecting Saving Dynamics
We argue that the U.S. personal saving rate’s long stability (from the 1960s through the early 1980s), subsequent steady decline (1980s - 2007), and recent substantial increase (2008 - 2011) can all be interpreted using a parsimonious ‘buffer stock’ model of optimal consumption in the presence of labor income uncertainty and credit constraints. Saving in the model is affected by the gap between ‘target’ and actual wealth, with the target wealth determined by credit conditions and uncertainty. An estimated structural version of the model suggests that increased credit availability accounts for most of the saving rate’s long-term decline, while fluctuations in net wealth and uncertainty capture the bulk of the business-cycle variation.
EU Law Stories
This book retells the multiple stories behind the rulings of the European Court, revealing their context, their history and the legal and non-legal strategies of their actors.
Concordia Historical Institute Quarterly
A journal for the history of Lutheranism in America.
The Lutheran Witness
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