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Measuring Contagion with a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model
We propose using a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model estimated with Markov chain-Monte Carlo methods to measure contagion empirically. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It distinguishes contagion not only from interdependence but also from structural breaks and can be used to investigate positive as well as negative contagion. The proposed measure appears to work well using both simulated and actual data.
The Politics of Attention
On any given day, policymakers are required to address a multitude of problems and make decisions about a variety of issues, from the economy and education to health care and defense. This has been true for years, but until now no studies have been conducted on how politicians manage the flood of information from a wide range of sources. How do they interpret and respond to such inundation? Which issues do they pay attention to and why? Bryan D. Jones and Frank R. Baumgartner answer these questions on decision-making processes and prioritization in The Politics of Attention. Analyzing fifty years of data, Jones and Baumgartner's book is the first study of American politics based on a new inf...
What Triggers Market Jitters?
Movements in stock prices in East Asia during the crisis in 1997-98 were triggered by both local and neighbor-country news. Having the highest impact was news about agreements with international organizations and credit rating agencies. But some changes seem to have been driven by herd instincts in the market itself, including overreactions to bad news. In the chaotic financial environment of East Asia in 1997-98, daily changes in stock prices of as much as 10 percent became commonplace. Kaminsky and Schmukler analyze what type of news moved the market in those days of extreme market jitters. They find that movements are triggered by both local and neighbor-country news. News about agreements with international organizations and credit rating agencies have the most weight. Some of those large changes in stock prices, however, cannot be explained by any apparent substantial news but seem to be driven by herd instincts in the market itself. On average, the one-day market rallies are sustained while the largest one-day losses are recovered - suggesting that investors overreact to bad news.
I centri minori italiani nel tardo Medioevo
In the late Middle Ages, Italy was one of the most urbanized areas in Europe. Its coasts, the Apennines, the perialpine area and the plains were all home to a large number of smaller towns, lands, villages, castra, and 'quasi cites'. These settlements were all very diverse in terms of demographic consistency, social articulation and economic dynamism, but together they constituted a characteristic and constitutive element of the Italian historical identity: an 'original personality'. This volume, thanks to some framing essays and a mapping of individual cases involving most of the northern, central and southern regions, aims at investigating the active research on this topic over the last thirty to forty years.
Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
The issue of using monetary policy for financial stability purposes is hotly contested. The crisis was a reminder that price stability is not sufficient for financial stability, financial crises are costly, and policy should aim to decrease the likelihood of crises, not only rely on dealing with their repercussions once they occur. It is clear that well-targeted prudential policies (including micro and macroprudential regulation and supervision) should be pursued actively to attenuate the buildup of financial risks. The question is whether monetary policy should be altered to contain financial stability risks. Should it lend a hand by temporarily raising interest rates more than warranted by price and output stability objectives? Keeping rates persistently higher is also possible, but more costly.
Sri Lanka
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The first chapter on monetary policy transmission examines the channels through which innovations to policy variables—policy rate or monetary aggregates—affect such macroeconomic variables as output and inflation in Sri Lanka. The effectiveness of monetary policy instruments is judged through the prism of conventional policy channels (money/interest rate, bank lending, exchange rate, asset price channels) in VAR models, and the timing and magnitude of these effects are assessed using impulse response functions, and through the pass-through coefficients from policy to money market and lending rates. Our results show that (i) interest rate channel (money view) has the str...
Piecing Together the Peaces
In Piecing Together the Peaces, Alexander K. Antony and William R. Thompson provide a novel explanation for how peace took hold in the international system and why state behavior drastically changed. According to the standard line of reasoning, states need only democratize, liberalize their trade, modernize their economic culture, or choose to forego territorial pursuits to reach peace with another state. A bold challenge to the conventional wisdom that dominates interstate peace research, Antony and Thompson make the case that industrialization provides the starting point from which we can begin to unpack the transformation in conflict propensities among certain states.
Growth Spillover Dynamics From Crisis to Recovery
Can positive growth shocks from the faster-growing countries in Europe spill over to the slower growing countries, providing useful tailwinds to their recovery process? This study investigates the potential relevance of growth spillovers in the context of the crisis and the recovery process. Based on a VAR framework, our analysis suggests that the U.S. and Japan remain the key source of growth spillovers in this recovery, with France also playing an important role for the European crisis countries. Notwithstanding the current export-led cyclical upswing, Germany generates relatively small outward spillovers compared to other systemic countries, but likely plays a key role in transmitting and amplifying external growth shocks to the rest of Europe given its more direct exposure to foreign shocks compared to other European countries. Positive spillovers from Spain were important prior to the 2008 - 09 crisis, however Spain is generating negative spillovers in this recovery due to a depressed domestic demand. Negative spillovers from the European crisis countries appear limited, consistent with their modest size.
Emigration and Its Economic Impact on Eastern Europe
This paper analyses the impact of large and persistent emigration from Eastern European countries over the past 25 years on these countries’ growth and income convergence to advanced Europe. While emigration has likely benefited migrants themselves, the receiving countries and the EU as a whole, its impact on sending countries’ economies has been largely negative. The analysis suggests that labor outflows, particularly of skilled workers, lowered productivity growth, pushed up wages, and slowed growth and income convergence. At the same time, while remittance inflows supported financial deepening, consumption and investment in some countries, they also reduced incentives to work and led to exchange rate appreciations, eroding competiveness. The departure of the young also added to the fiscal pressures of already aging populations in Eastern Europe. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for sending countries to mitigate the negative impact of emigration on their economies, and the EU-wide initiatives that could support these efforts.
