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Analytical Issues in Debt
This book, edited by Jacob A. Frenkel, Michael P. Dooley, and Peter Wickham, presents a sample of the work of the IMF and that of world-renowned scholars on the analytical issues surrounding the explosion of countries with debt-servicing difficulties and describes debt initiatives and debt-reduction techniques that hold the best promise for finding a lasting solution to the problems of debtor countries.
Endogenous Creditor Seniority and External Debt Values
A new aggregation scheme used to measure the sources of fiscal financing of indebted countries suggests that there was a fundamental improvement in the seniority of domestic debt at the expense of foreign bank debt during the late 1980s. We argue that this was the revenue maximizing response of governments to internal and external capital flight that drained the domestic financial “tax base” subject to indirect taxation. Empirical analysis indicates that the profile of the sources of fiscal financing influenced external debt values. The econometric analysis also implies that previous studies have neglected an important reason for the decline in loan values from 1985 to 1989: the increase in international interest rates.
A Noteon Burden Sharing Among Creditors
This paper presents a framework for evaluating the relative contributions of different creditors in cases where only partial payments can be made by the debtor country. A methodology is developed to calculate partial payments—or alternatively put—determine residual financing. By focusing on the relative seniority of creditors and expectations of the debtor’s ability to repay, alternative sharing rules are quantified. The measure is based on the expected present value of payments. Creditors earning a below-market rate of return suffer a burden; creditors earning the same rate of return are said to share the burden equally.
Exchange Rates, Country Preferences, and Gold
This paper provides indirect tests of the hypothesis that exchange rate movements may be largely coterminus with changes in preferences for holding claims on different countries. It is argued that changes in country preferences will be reflected systematically in the price of gold and, hence, that gold price movements, under the maintained hypothesis, should have explanatory power with respect to exchange rate movements over and above the effects of monetary shocks. The paper applies multivariate vector autoregression and cointegration modeling techniques to test for the short-and long-run influence of gold prices on exchange rates conditional on other monetary and real macroeconomic variables, and applies the resulting error correction exchange rate equation to out-of-sample forecasting exercises.
Establishing Incentive Structures and Planning Agencies That Support Market-Oriented Transformations
This note addresses various types of incentives that must be established before a market economy can function effectively. It also argues that the enormous challenge of restructuring large industrial enterprises or reabsorbing their workers, while appropriately based on market signals, cannot be accomplished by the market alone. Some type of planning will eventually be required. Ideally, such planning should receive high priority from the outset with clear recognition that durable macroeconomic stabilization will be very difficult to achieve in a democratic political system until the large state enterprises have been successfully transformed or their workers reabsorbed.
A Survey of Academic Literatureon Controls Over International Capital Transactions
The IMF Working Papers series is designed to make IMF staff research available to a wide audience. Almost 300 Working Papers are released each year, covering a wide range of theoretical and analytical topics, including balance of payments, monetary and fiscal issues, global liquidity, and national and international economic developments.
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