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Price Statistics Compilation in 196 Economies: The Relevance for Policy Analysis
The consumer price index (CPI) is a key economic indicator used to gauge inflation, adjust wages, pensions, and social benefits. The producer prices index (PPI) is used for forecasting and deflating GDP estimates. Both indexes are used by the Fund, policymakers, and researchers for global, regional, and domestic surveillance. In this context, the paper evaluates the soundness of the indexes by assessing four major criteria: frequency of updating the weights, the index coverage, timeliness, and the use of international classifications. We discuss online and scanner data as frontier issues. The study shows that the CPI is universally and frequently compiled, timely, and fairly-well aligned wit...
An Algorithm to Balance Supply and Use Tables
A Supply and Use Table (SUT) serve to increase the quality of GDP and related aggregates by providing a framework to detect and resolve inconsistencies in data sources. SUTs are also a powerful analytical tool that permit users to access information on detailed production functions, consumption, export, and import baskets, or to derive input-output tables. SUT compilation is data intensive and requires a balancing process. The balancing procedure is labor intensive and generally requires several long and sometimes tedious iterations, which has an adverse effect on timeliness. This note describes a basic algorithm developed by the IMF to balance supply and use tables automatically, allowing a much faster SUT balancing process. For training purposes, this algorithm has been implemented as an Excel tool SUTB, making it operational almost globally. The optimization process is illustrated with an example.
A Monthly Indicator of Economic Growth for Low Income Countries
Monthly economic indicators support policy analysis of current economic developments and forecasting. This paper presents an overview of the data and statistical requirements to develop those indicators taking into account resource constraints that LIC typically face. We review statistical procedures for developing these indicators under the System of National Accounts and propose a general procedure to derive a monthly composite indicator of economic growth in low income economies.
Measure up
To derive real GDP, the System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA) recommends a technique called double deflation. Some countries use single deflation techniques, which fail to capture important relative price changes and introduce estimation errors in official GDP growth. We simulate the effects of single deflation to the GDP data of eight countries that use double deflation. We find that errors due to single deflation can be significant, but their magnitude and direction are not systematic over time and across countries. We conclude that countries still using single deflation should move to double deflation.
The Status of GDP Compilation Practices in 189 Economies and the Relevance for Policy Analysis
This paper examines the status of GDP compilation in 189 economies against six key criteria that describe national accounts compilation practices: whether the benchmark year is up to date, the availability and timeliness of annual and quarterly GDP, whether GDP by production and expenditure approaches are compiled independently to allow for comparisons, whether estimates by the income approach are available, and the vintage of the System of National Accounts (SNA) applied. We used publicly available information including from the IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB), and, for 108 developing economies, information provided by the IMF’s real sector advisors stationed in the Fund’s 10 Regional Technical Assistance Centers (RTACs). The data were compared with the UNSD and World Bank databases. We find that 50 percent of economies have acceptable benchmark years, 72 percent report timely annual GDP data, while 55 percent of economies report timely data for quarterly GDP. The study presents some conclusions for priorities of capacity development.
New Estimates for Direction of Trade Statistics
In March 2017, the IMF published an upgrade of its Direction of Trade Statistics (DOTS) dataset. This paper documents the new methodology that has been developed to estimate missing observations of bilateral trade statistics on a monthly basis. The new estimation procedure is founded on a benchmarking method that produces monthly estimates based on official trade statistics by partner country reported at different times and frequencies. In this paper we describe the new estimation methodology. Additional data sources have also been incorporated. We also assess the impact of the new estimates on trade measurement in DOTS at global, regional, and country-specific levels. Finally, we suggest some developments of DOTS to strenghten its relevance for IMF bilateral and multilateral surveillance.
Special Purpose Entities
The Note is meant to assist compilers in the practical application of the agreed defini¬tion to identify resident Special Purpose Entities (SPE) in their jurisdictions and in collecting and reporting SPE-related cross-border data. To this end, these guidelines provide practical advice on the (1) implementa¬tion of the definition of SPEs, (2) possible data sources and processes for collecting and compiling SPE-related statistics, and (3) reporting within the agreed Data Template.
Paraguay
OVERALL ASSESSMENT This Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC)—Data Module provides an update of the assessment conducted in February 2006, which was based on the July 2003 version of the IMF’s Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF). This ROSC Data Module is the first complete report based on the May 2012 vintage of the DQAF that covers six datasets, namely, national accounts (NA), consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), government finance statistics (GFS) and public sector debt statistics, monetary statistics, and balance of payments (BOP) and international investment position (IIP) statistics. The agencies that compile and disseminate these statistics ...
Getting Hip
GETTING HIP is a personal account of one woman’s recovery from a total hip replacement. From the painful arthritic deterioration of her joint, to making the difficult decision to have surgery at the relatively young age of 47, Sigrid Macdonald takes us with her on her postoperative journey. She discusses how to prepare for hip surgery and the potential complications of the operation. A detailed description of her rehabilitation is provided, along with interviews with 10 people from all over the world, whose recovery time from hip surgery varied considerably. This reader friendly book is written with wit, candor, and empathy for the prospective hip patient. It offers useful tips for acquiri...
