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Islamic Republic of Mauritania
This paper discusses the impact of the global economic slump on the Mauritanian economy, which faces a significant negative terms-of-trade shock that is more persistent than initially envisaged. The impact of the international shock is compounded by a narrow production base, structural weaknesses, and limited policy space related to elevated public debt and pressures on external buffers. The outlook sees a recovery in economic activity to 4.1 percent in 2016, but risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. The present economic uncertainty has prompted Mauritania to call for an ambitious policy adjustment to diversify the economy and promote inclusive growth for a determined reform agenda.
The Relationship Between the Foreign Exchange Regime and Macroeconomic Performance in Eastern Africa
This study examines the relationship between the foreign exchange regime and macroeconomic performance in Eastern Africa. The study focuses on seven countries, five of which decisively liberalized their foreign exchange regimes. The study assesses the relationship between (i) growth and various determinants, including the exchange regime, the real exchange rate, and current account liberalization; and (ii) inflation and various determinants, including lagged inflation, the nominal exchange rate, the exchange regime, and liberalization. We find that in our sample, for the determinants of growth, investment and the real exchange rate are significant determinants but not the exchange regime or liberalization; and for inflation, the lagged inflation rate, nominal exchange rate, and the de facto regime are significant. Exchange rate pass-through is limited.
Who is John Noman?
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Excerpt: Resilience and Growth in the Small States of the Pacific
This is a prepublication excerpt of Resilience and Growth in the Small States of the Pacific.
Kuwait: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kuwait
Sustained political gridlock has hobbled reforms and increased macroeconomic vulnerabilities, but a new high-level effort offers hope for resolving the impasse. The authorities have been preparing a comprehensive reform plan which, if adopted by parliament, would pave the way to address the structural and fiscal imbalances in the economy and promote sustainable and inclusive growth. The authorities responded swiftly and decisively to the COVID-19 crisis with social distancing restrictions and fiscal, monetary, and financial policy support measures. In 2021, a high rate of vaccination was achieved, although there has been a major surge in infections with the recent arrival of the Omicron variant. A nascent economic recovery is underway, supported by higher oil prices and some relaxation of mobility restrictions. However, substantial uncertainties to the economic outlook underscore the importance of phasing out COVID-19 relief measures at a measured pace as the economy recovers, and of accelerating the reform momentum to limit risks and rebuild buffers. Banks entered the crisis from a position of strength and have remained well capitalized and highly liquid.
Resilience and Growth in the Small States of the Pacific
Pacific island countries face unique challenges to realizing their growth potential and raising living standards. This book discusses ongoing challenges facing Pacific island countries and policy options to address them. Regional cooperation and solutions tailored to their unique challenges, as well as further integration with the Asia and Pacific region will each play a role. With concerted efforts, Pacific island countries can boost potential growth, increase resilience, and improve the welfare of their citizens.
(Not) Dancing Together
This paper provides estimates of the government spending multiplier over the monetary policy cycle. We identify government spending shocks as forecast errors of the growth rate of government spending from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and from the Greenbook record. The state of monetary policy is inferred from the deviation of the U.S. Fed funds rate from the target rate, using a smooth transition function. Applying the local projections method to quarterly U.S. data, we find that the federal government spending multiplier is substantially higher under accommodative than non-accommodative monetary policy. Our estimations also suggest that federal government spending may crowd-in or crowd-out private consumption, depending on the extent of monetary policy accommodation. The latter result reconciles—in a unified framework—apparently contradictory findings in the literature. We discuss the implications of our findings for the ongoing normalization of monetary conditions in advanced economies.
Inflation Reports and Models
We offer a novel methodology for assessing the quality of inflation reports. In contrast to the existing literature, which mostly evaluates the formal quality of these reports, we evaluate their economic content by comparing inflation factors reported by the central banks with ex-post model-identified factors. Regarding the former, we use verbal analysis and coding of inflation reports to describe inflation factors communicated by central banks in real time. Regarding the latter, we use reduced-form, new Keynesian models and revised data to approximate the true inflation factors. Positive correlations indicate that the reported inflation factors were similar to the true, model-identified ones and hence mark high-quality inflation reports. Although central bank reports on average identify inflation factors correctly, the degree of forward-looking reporting varies across factors, time, and countries.
Informality, Frictions, and Macroprudential Policy
We analyze the effects of macroprudential policies through the lens of an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to developing markets. In particular, we explicitly introduce informality in the labor and goods markets within a small open economy embedding financial frictions, nominal and real rigidities, labor search and matching, and an explicit banking sector. We use the estimated version of the model to run welfare analysis under optimized monetary and macroprudential rules. Results show that although informality reduces the efficiency of macroprudential policies following a convex fashion, combining the latter with an inflation targeting objective could be beneficial.
Monetary Policy Design with Recurrent Climate Shocks
As climate change intensifies, the frequency and severity of climate-induced disasters are expected to escalate. We develop a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model to analyze the impact of these events on monetary policy. Our model conceptualizes these disasters as left-tail productivity shocks with a quantified likelihood, leading to a skewed distribution of outcomes. This creates a significant trade-off for central banks, balancing increased inflation risks against reduced output. Our results suggest modifying the Taylor rule to give equal weight to responses to both inflation and output growth, indicating a gradual approach to climateexacerbated economic fluctuations.
