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A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment
This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve’s target, and that labor-market slack is captured by the level of shortterm unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including the failure of high total unemployment since 2008 to reduce inflation greatly. The fit of our equation is especially good when we measure core inflation with the Cleveland Fed’s series on weighted median inflation. We also propose a more general Phillips curve in which core inflation depends on short-term unemployment and on expected inflation as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters. This specification fits U.S. inflation since 1985, including both the anchored-expectations period of the 2000s and the preceding period when expectations were determined by past levels of inflation.
The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle
Notwithstanding persistently-high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been remarkably stable. We find that a traditional Phillips curve describes the behavior of inflation reasonably well since the 1960s. Using a non-linear Kalman filter that allows for time-varying parameters, we find that three factors have contributed to the observed stability of inflation: inflation expectations have become better anchored and to a lower level; the slope of the Phillips curve has flattened; and the importance of import-price inflation has increased.
Inflation Anchoring and Growth: Evidence from Sectoral Data
Central bankers often assert that low inflation and anchoring of inflation expectations are good for economic growth (Bernanke 2007, Plosser 2007). We test this claim using panel data on sectoral growth for 22 manufacturing industries for 36 advanced and emerging market economies over the period 1990-2014. Inflation anchoring in each country is measured as the response of inflation expectations to inflation surprises (Levin et al., 2004). We find that credit constrained industries—those characterized by high external financial dependence and R&D intensity and low asset tangibility—tend to grow faster in countries with well-anchored inflation expectations. The results are robust to contro...
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity: Spring 2011 • Job Search, Emotional Well-Being, and Job Finding in a Periodof Mass Unemployment: Evidence from High-Frequency Longitudinal DataBy Alan B. Krueger and Andreas Mueller • Financially Fragile Households: Evidence and ImplicationsBy Annamaria Lusardi, Daniel Schneider, and Peter Tufano • Let's Twist Again: A High-Frequency Event-Study Analysisof Operation Twist and Its Implications for QE2By Eric T. Swanson • An Exploration of Optimal Stabilization PolicyBy N. Gregory Mankiw and Matthew Weinzierl • What Explains the German Labor Market Miracle in the Great Recession?By Michael C. Burda and Jennifer Hunt • Inflation Dynamics and the Great RecessionBy Laurence Ball and Sandeep Mazumder
An Islamic Model for Stabilization and Growth
This book argues that the macroeconomic policy adjustment models recommended by the IMF and the World Bank for implementation in many Muslim countries, with substantial donor financial support, have not been effective. Economic indicators show low economic growth, persistent fiscal and external deficits and limited industrialization. Also, these countries are experiencing increases in unemployment, poverty and substantial growth in income and wealth inequalities. These facts underline an urgent need to produce an alternative to the failed conventional macroeconomic model in order to address the challenge of macroeconomic and social adjustment policies. The project posits and investigates the idea that the Islamic economic model prescribed in the Quran and applied by the Prophet (sawa) could be the ideal model for Muslim as well as non-Muslim countries.
Demand Vs. Supply Decomposition of Inflation: Cross-Country Evidence with Applications
What are the contributions of demand and supply factors to inflation? To address this question, we follow Shapiro (2022) and construct quarterly demand-driven and supply-driven inflation series for 32 countries utilizing sectoral Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data. We highlight global trends and country-specific differences in inflation decompositions during critical periods such as the great financial crisis of 2008 and the recent inflation surge since 2021. Validating our inflation series, we find that supply-driven inflation is more reactive to oil shocks and supply chain pressures, while demand-driven inflation displays a more pronounced response to monetary policy shocks. Our results also suggest a steeper Phillips curve when inflation is demand-driven, holding significant implications for effective policy design.
Regional Economic Outlook, April 2018, Asia Pacific
Asia is expected to grow by about 51⁄2 percent this year, accounting for nearly two-thirds of global growth, and the region remains the world’s most dynamic by a considerable margin. But despite the strong outlook, policymakers must remain vigilant. While risks around the forecast are broadly balanced for now, they are skewed firmly to the downside over the medium term. Key risks include those of further market corrections—possibly triggered by inflation surprises and/or faster-than-expected monetary tightening in advanced economies—a shift toward protectionist policies, and an increase in geopolitical tensions.
Economic Report of the President, Transmitted to the Congress March 2014 Together with the Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisors
Contains the Economic Report of the President as transmitted to the Congress in March 2014," together with The Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers" and the Statistical Appendix," and includes many charts and graphs in full color.
The Federal Reserve
"A new and critical history of one of America's most important institutions In The Federal Reserve System: A New History, Robert Hetzel draws on a 43-year career as an economist in the central bank to trace the influence of the Fed on the American economy. Hetzel compares period in which the Fed stabilized the economy and period in which it destabilized the the economy. He draws lessons about what monetary rule is stabilizing. Recast through this lens and enriched with archival materials, Hetzel's sweeping history offers new understanding of the bank's watershed moments since 1913. They include critical accounts of the Great Depression, the Great Inflation, and the Great Recession, all of which were avoidable. The Federal Reserve System: A New History arrives as a critical history for a critical moment. It promises to recast our understanding of the central bank in its second century"--
