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Towards Central Bank Digital Currencies in Asia and the Pacific
Drawing on survey responses from 34 Asian economies and country case studies, this note takes stock of recent developments related to central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and crypto assets in Asia. The survey finds that there is significant heterogeneity in terms of stage of development, but the emergence of private crypto assets has created an impetus to consider CBDCs. While most countries are engaged in research and development, with some at advanced stages of testing and pilots, very few countries are likely to issue CBDCs in the near-to-medium term, reflecting the still considerable uncertainties. Still, country experiences so far provide some key insights for others in their journey in this area.
Financial Inclusion in Asia-Pacific
Asia has made significant progress in financial inclusion, but both its across-country and intra-country disparities are among the highest in the world. The gaps between the rich and the poor, rural and urban populations, and men and women remain deep. Income is the main determinant of the level of financial inclusion; but other factors, such as geography, financial sector structure, and policies, also play important roles. While some countries in the Asia-Pacific region are leaders in fintech, on average the region lags behind others in several important areas such as online (internet) purchases, electronic payments, mobile money, and mobile government transfers. This Departmental Paper aim...
A New Heuristic Measure of Fragility and Tail Risks
This paper presents a simple heuristic measure of tail risk, which is applied to individual bank stress tests and to public debt. Stress testing can be seen as a first order test of the level of potential negative outcomes in response to tail shocks. However, the results of stress testing can be misleading in the presence of model error and the uncertainty attending parameters and their estimation. The heuristic can be seen as a second order stress test to detect nonlinearities in the tails that can lead to fragility, i.e., provide additional information on the robustness of stress tests. It also shows how the measure can be used to assess the robustness of public debt forecasts, an important issue in many countries. The heuristic measure outlined here can be used in a variety of situations to ascertain an ordinal ranking of fragility to tail risks.
Pilot Project on Concentration and Distribution Measures for a Selected Set of Financial Soundness Indicators
This paper reports the main findings of a pilot project launched in July 2014 by the IMF’s Statistics Department to test augmenting the IMF’s financial soundness indicators (FSIs) with concentration and distribution measures (CDMs) to capture tail risks, concentrations, variations in distributions, and the volatility of indicators over time that simple averages can miss. Volunteer participants reported a trial set of CDMs to assess analytical usefulness and identify concerns such as confidentiality and reporting burden. The results of the pilot suggests that CDMs can help detect financial sector risks, justifying the additional reporting burden but that further input from participating countries and potential data users should be sought; indeed further refinement of the reporting requirements and the CDMs themselves may be needed.
Tonga
This paper discusses recent economic developments, economic outlook, risks, and challenges in Tonga. The Tongan economy has been rebounding since a contraction in FY2013. Growth accelerated from 2.1 percent in FY2014 to 3.7 percent in FY2015, supported by construction, tourism, strong remittances, and strong private credit, notwithstanding weather-related disruptions to agricultural production. The FY2016 real GDP growth is projected to remain relatively strong at 3.1 percent, driven by a recovery in agriculture and an increase in construction activity in preparation for the South Pacific Games. However, a protracted period of slower growth in advanced and emerging market economies, particularly in Australia and New Zealand, could weigh on Tonga via aid, remittances, and tourism channels.
Ghana
Ghana’s macroeconomic performance has continued to improve, and the program’s objectives are being met. Progress has also been made toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals. Public expenditure and financial management has shown improvement. The medium-term outlook appears favorable and the economy is poised for acceleration in growth. Recent petroleum price adjustments have delayed the disinflation process. The transparency of exchange rate policy is essential. Executive Directors agree with the government’s determination to lay a strong foundation for the private sector to lead growth.
Kyrgyz Republic
The Kyrgyz Republic has made good progress under the three-year Poverty Reduction Growth Facility arrangement. Executive Directors welcomed the strong macroeconomic performance and low inflation. They appreciated the fiscal consolidation by containing expenditure growth and improving tax collection. They welcomed the prudent monetary and strong exchange rate policies. They stressed the need to press ahead with privatization, restructure the power sector, and strengthen the financial system. They commended the successful completion of the third review under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) arrangement, and approved a waiver.
Strategy for Fintech Applications in the Pacific Island Countries
The Bali Fintech Agenda highlights 12 principles for policymakers to consider when formulating their approaches to new financial technology (fintech). The agenda aims to harness the potential of fintech while managing associated risks. This paper looks at how some elements of the Bali Fintech Agenda could be used in Pacific island countries, which face significant financial-structural challenges.
Evolution of the Global Financial Network and Contagion: A New Approach
This paper studies the interconnectedness of the global financial system and its susceptibility to shocks. A novel multilayer network framework is applied to link debt and equity exposures across countries. Use of this approach—that examines simultaneously multiple channels of transmission and their important higher order effects—shows that ignoring the heterogeneity of financial exposures, and simply aggregating all claims, as often done in other studies, can underestimate the extent and effects of financial contagion.The structure of the global financial network has changed since the global financial crisis, impacted by European bank’s deleveraging and higher corporate debt issuance....
From Subprime Loans to Subprime Growth? Evidence for the Euro Area
The global financial crisis has highlighted the potential of financial conditions for influencing real economic activity. We examine the linkages between the financial and real sectors in the euro area, finding that (i) bank loan supply responds negatively to declines in bank soundness; (ii) a cutback in bank loan supply has a negative impact on economic activity; (iii) a positive shock to the corporate bond spread lowers industrial output; and (iv) risk indicators for the banking, corporate, and public sectors show an improvement beginning in 2002–03, followed by a major deterioration since 2007. These estimates imply that the currently estimated bank losses would subtract some 2 percentage points from the euro area output (but with considerable uncertainty around the estimates).
