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A Review of Capital Account Restrictions in Chile in the 1990s
This paper examines the Chilean experience with capital controls and reviews studies on controls on capital inflows. Controls on Chile’s inflows had only a temporary impact in reducing specific inflows because they were affected by avoidance. There is some evidence that controls increased interest rates and altered the composition of capital inflows. The studies, however, contain important methodological problems in measuring flows and significant econometric weaknesses, which cast doubt on the robustness of the estimates. No study has assessed the political economy of the controls. It seems premature to view the Chilean experience as supportive of controls on capital inflows.
Macroeconomic Conditions and Import Surcharges in Selected Transition Economies
Analysis on macroeconomic determinants of protection in the Czech and Slovak Republics, Hungary, and Poland, while subject to many caveats, suggests that appreciation of the real exchange rate was the main macroeconomic determinant of trade policy reversals in the 1990s. This suggests that balance of payments difficulties may have been used as an excuse for protection. The analysis also suggests that greater exchange rate flexibility and tighter fiscal policies could have been used instead of import surcharges to deal with external imbalances. The surcharges may only have aggravated the external balance by slowing down exports and restructuring of production.
The GATS Agreementon Financial Services
This paper analyzes the links between multilateral, and unilateral financial liberalization, the former represented by the General Agreements on Trade in Services (GATS). It provides an overview of the main features of the GATS and what the participants in banking and securities within its framework, and compares GATS liberalization with the actual state of liberalization of the participants’ financial sectors. The results suggest that in many countries multilaterally liberalized financial sector policies are more restrictive than the actual state of openness or development of financial sectors. Many emerging markets liberalized little under the GATS despite often well-developed financial markets, while the opposite was true in some less developed developing countries.
Algeria
Given the tendency of the oil sector to appreciate the equilibrium real exchange rate (RER) in Algeria, trade liberalization with its depreciating impact on the RER is important for diversification of exports. This paper shows that reduction in trade protection would depreciate the RER in Algeria, which in turn would improve competitiveness of, and incentives to invest in, non-oil exports. The paper then discusses existing levels of protection in Algeria and directions for reform.
Trade Liberalization in Fund-Supported Programs
This study asseses trade liberalization in programs supported by the IMF by reviewing multiyear arrangements in the 1990s and six detailed case studies. It also discusses the main economic factors affecting trade policy targets.
The Burden of Sub-Saharan African Own Commitments in the Uruguay Round
The paper reviews Sub-Saharan Africa’s (SSA) (i) own market access commitments in the Uruguay Round, and (ii) the nature of the constraints on SSA policies set by the Uruguay Round. It concludes that SSA failed to use the Uruguay Round to lock domestic reforms to an international anchor. Apart from South Africa, most SSA countries made few substantial liberalization commitments on border protection. The new rules set few immediate constraints on SSA policies as developing countries benefit from long and extendable transition periods. The main impact of the new rules will be increased transparency of policies from increased notification requirements. Further trade liberalization will have to rely on unilateral initiatives. This a Working Paper and the author(s) would welcome any comments on the present text. Citations should refer to a Working Paper of the International Monetary Fund, mentioning the author(s), and the date of issuance. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the Fund.
Investment Implications of Selected WTO Agreements and the Proposed Multilateral Agreementon Investment
The substantial increase in foreign direct investment (FDI) in recent years has triggered a discussion of a uniform treatment of investment in international law. Most contributions to the multilateral investment framework derive from the World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements on trade liberalization. The resulting framework is incomplete, as the WTO agreements restrict their focus on investment to aspects related to international trade and often apply to selected sectors only. A broader investment regime is needed to provide a more neutral incentive framework for investment liberalization and to promote efficient international investment flows.
Bulgaria
This paper presents key findings of Bulgaria’s Financial System Stability Assessment, including Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes on Monetary and Financial Policy Transparency, Banking Supervision, Securities Regulation, Insurance Regulation, and Payment Systems. Bulgaria’s macroeconomic policies are tied to three anchors: the discipline imposed by the Currency Board Arrangement; discipline imposed by the accession procedure to the European Union and European Monetary Union; and the conditionalities of IMF and World Bank programs. Although real growth has resumed and the fiscal deficits have been contained, the increasing current account deficit is a matter of concern.
Environmental Protectionism, North-South Trade, and the Uruguay Round
The paper seeks to provide an overview of the present state of debate on trade, environment and the GATT for developing countries. Potential for green protectionism and relevant GATT rules are discussed in three areas: i) environmental product regulations including eco-labeling and other product measures with effects on production processes and border adjustment of environmental taxes; ii) extraterritorial use of trade measures to influence environmental behavior in other countries; and iii) the use of trade measures with international environmental agreements. The conclusion of the Uruguay Round will have a number of direct and indirect effects on trade and environment and the GATT debate on it.
